19 Days….
Now that Football Season has officially ended….it is time to talk Hot Stove. 19 days to P&C
Let’s start with a Brewer related tidbits. I thought that it was very interesting that the Brewers signed Mike Cameron. Either Doug Melvin is an unbelievable poker player, or he doesn’t really speak the entire truth. The offseason plan to replace Jenkins in left field was to sign a left handed hitting, contact hitter/high on-base percentage type that could either play left field or third base. If they acquired a third baseman (Hank Blalock) then Braun would be moved to left. If they decided to go the left field route (Andre Ethier), then there would be no need to make further defensive shifts. It was a very difficult decision to move Billy Hall to Centerfield last year and the team lived with his defensive struggles early, but didn’t expect the severe drop in his offensive numbers. He finally felt comfortable at the end of the year, and the front office said they were committed to keeping him in Center.
So where exactly does Cameron fit. Left handed – not so much. Contact/OBP guy – well Cameron was 4th in the league in Strikeouts. Hall staying put – again, didn’t happen.
Now, do I like the signing? I will go on record that it is a very big improvement. Cameron is a gold glove centerfielder that allows Braun to move to left, where he can’t possibly be as bad as he was at 3rd. Hall was a very good shortstop and has played some third, so I don’t see any way this doesn’t significantly help the defense. Offensively, Cameron has some value. A .341 career OBP is pretty good considering how often he strikes out. He is a very good baserunner, and steals at a 80% clip.
January 29th, 2008 at 7:14 am
So just so we’re clear - you like both the Gagne signing and the Cameron signing? Wow. We’re all guilty of rose-colored glasses when it comes to our own teams, but this may be a new low. Well… either that, or given the revenue/payroll discrepancy in MLB, Gagne and Cameron actually *do* represent “good moves” by the Brewers. Ugh.
Cameron’s not horrible, and he does play a good CF (last time I checked). With a 106 OPS+, he’s slightly better than a league-average hitter - although you’d expect your OFs to be better than league-average hitters, at least. It’s not a terrible signing (like, say, giving Juan Pierre $50 million) - but its decidedly uninspiring, and ultimately, I don’t see how it does much for the Brewers chances of contending.
And Gagne? Yeah… good luck with that.
P.S. Still waiting for you thoughts on the Packers-Giants game… waiting… waiting…. We heard plenty *before* the game, yet… nothing after the game. What gives?!
January 29th, 2008 at 10:45 am
Gagne did not pitch well with the Red Sox, and should be evaluated exclusively on the small sample size in the last 2 months of last year. In 18.7 Innings he gave up 14 runs. Let’s judge the signing completely with “Red Sox” colored glasses.
In reality, even just taking his Boston career, he blew 4 games out of the 20 he pitched. So basically, as awful as he was in Boston, he would have converted 80% of the save chances had he been a closer instead of a set up man.
Is Gagne the key to the Brewers? Absolutely not. I like the signing for several reasons. It is a 1 year deal. In addition to Gagne, they also brought in Riske and Torres to go with Turnbow who they already had. All of whom have closer experience. Except for Riske, they are all one-year deals. Would you rather have Gagne for 1 year and $10 M or Cordero for 4 years and 44M? That is an obvious choice to me, because I am looking at the situation from a small market team perspective. Surely, if you are a Red Sox or Yankee fan, and money is not the slightest contributing factor to a baseball decision, it would be tough to see that logic. But paying 13 M to a 37 year closer in 2001, like the Reds, are obligated to do, is not fiscally responsible.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:24 am
Isn’t Cameron out for 50 games due to the suspension? Or is it only 25?
January 29th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Cameron is out for 25 games. As I mentioned the Brewers don’t give a rip if a player was on steroids. Mota has already served a 50 game suspension, Cameron will miss April, Turnbow was the first major leaguer who tested positive for steroids back when he tried out for the Olympic team in 2000, and there is a high likelihood that Gagne used some PEDs
January 30th, 2008 at 9:27 am
First, I sincerely doubt the Brewers are the only team who doesn’t give a rip about players on PEDs… but isn’t it ironic that our current commissioner is also the Brewers owner (oops… I mean, “was” the Brewers owner)? Second, why should they care what a guy did before? All that matters is (a) how he’ll perform (for the Brewers) going forward, and (b) if he’ll get caught in the future.
As for Gagne, I’m glad you’re optimistic - and I agree that his short stay in Boston could very well be shrugged off to small sample size - but I refer you to my Gagne post from 9/19:
http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/gagne-ugh/
Specifically, where I note that, “Gagne entering games that the Sox are winning:
10 G, 9.0 IP, 19 H, 14R/14ER, 6 BB, 8 K, 14.00 ERA, 2.78 WHIP. The Sox are 6-4 when Gagne enters a game that they are *winning* at the time he enters the game (usually the 8th inning). Gagne has given up at least one run in seven of these ten appearances.
Gagne entering games that the Sox are losing:
5 G, 5.0 IP, 4 H, 0R/0ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. The Sox are 1-4 when Gagne enters a game that they are losing at the time he enters the game. On August 14, he pitched a scoreless ninth vs. TB and the Sox won it in the bottom of the ninth.”
Let me reiterate: In the regular season, on ten occasions he entered a game that the Sox were leading, and in 70% of those appearances, he surrendered at least one run.
Finally, in the playoffs, he only came into games where they had a 10-run lead… a *ten*-run lead. Good luck with that.
P.S. Yes - I sniff a Gagne Pounder bet coming out of this, so what are your expectations for him in Milwaukee this season - and we’ll figure out how many Pounders you’re going to give to me as a result of that misplaced optimism.
P.P.S. Clearly its better to waste $10 million (on Gagne) than $44 million (on Cordero) - but that’s a relative comparison. In absolute terms, *both* deals are dumb… it’s just that the latter is *more* dumb than the former.
January 30th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Btw, “he blew 4 games out of the 20 he pitched” may very well be accurate - but more relevant is that he blew 4 games out of the 10 games he entered with a save opportunity i.e. he couldn’t blow games he entered where they were already losing, correct?
A 60% save rate. A 40% blown-save rate. Yup… good luck with that.
I hope the Brewers trainers (a) have some really good juice and (b) have some really good masking agents for said juice… otherwise, your beloved Brewers just wasted $10 million.
January 31st, 2008 at 7:14 am
You bring up a couple of very good ponits. If Gagne doesn’t work out, did the Brewers “waste 10 M”. The Brewers are in a unique position in 2008, because it will cost them about 8 million in total to pay for their top 5 hitters and #2.3 starters (Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Fielder, Braun, Villanueva, Gallardo). The other 3 hitting spots are taken with Cameron, Kendall, and Hall, while they have plenty of other bullpen options (mentioned above) and Sheets and Suppon will pull down 20M to round out the rotation. They have plenty of viable candidates for the #5 starter (bush, capuano, parra, or Vargas). They couldn’t have used that money upgrading another part of the team. They had 4 options: 1. Extend Fielder, Braun, or Gallardo ala a Tulowitski type contract: 2. Do nothing 3. Give a ridiculous contract to Cordero 4. Sign Gagne. Extending Fielder may have been the best option, but that can still be done despite the Gagne signing. That would have only cost them about 4-5 M in 2008.
This might be an interesting argument, since the Brewers are a small market team, with a self-imposed salary cap, but they can afford a 75M payroll.
The other argument you make is garbage. Blowing 40% of save opportunities in Boston, doesn’t make him a 60% save guy ala Ambroix Burgos. I know it was a long time ago, but he did save 16 out of 17 in Texas, and for his career has saved 177 out of 187 (including the 3 he blew in Boston). Clearly this is a pounder worthy argument, so lets go with Gagne saves 80% of the games this year.
February 1st, 2008 at 8:55 am
Just define 80% of the games for me. Is that 80% of the Brewers wins are saved by Gagne? 80% of the Brewers saves belong to Gagne? 80% of his appearances result in a save? Or he converts 80% of his save opportunities into saves? Or… all of the above?
Quite frankly, I’d like to consider several of those - for the simple fact that, for $10 million (especially in Milwaukee), he *better* be the very effective closer for that team. I don’t want to lose a Pounder cuz he got only ten save opportunities (all with 2- to 3-run leads) and happened not to blow more than two of them.
I will take the Pounder bet that he does *not* convert 80% of his save opps - but I want more. And for $10 million, as a Brewers fan, you should want more as well.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I’ll take Gagne coverts 80% of his save opportunities and Gagne has 80% of the total saves by the Brewers