Pete Rose is an excellent comparison - as his career OPS+ is 118. The thing with Rose is he has the most hits all-time… but if I’m not mistaken (and I think we covered this previously), he also has the most plate appearances all-time, and has made the most outs all-time. I suppose in a way, Rose is a tad like Favre… yes Favre has thrown for the most TDs - but he’s also thrown the most INTs, and isn’t he also tops in pass attempts? In other words, give credit for longevity… yes - but from a “rate” perspective… not necessarily that impressive, as it may seem on the surface.

Jim Rice has a career 128 OPS+ - and it took him 15 years to get into the Hall… and many think he doesn’t belong. Yes, Ichiro’s stolen bases and superior defense are points in his favor… but Rice was *far* more productive offensively… is the point. Btw, non-HoFer Ron Santo has a career 125 OPS+… *and* he was better defensively than Pete Rose, and neither was a speed demon. Again, Rose does deserve credit for longevity… but Santo was a better (read: far more productive) player during his career.

I have no problem giving HoF status to career achievement in counting stats based on longevity. That *is* impressive. But people often make the mistake of confusing a long and good career with a (usually shorter) great career. Sandy Koufax pitched half as long as Nolan Ryan but he was twice… check that, he was twenty times the pitcher that Ryan was. This is my point.

Back to Ichiro… some of his rate stats will be nice (BA, SB/CS), but the low career OPS+ may present an issue. This is why I feel that he needs to get to 2500 hits in MLB so that along with his NPB numbers (or even without them), voters can comfortably punch his ticket. If he doesn’t exceed that admittedly arbitrary threshold on the one counting stat, he may remain on the outside looking in… at least for the first few years of eligibility.

Then again, if he continues to be “overrated”, maybe he doesn’t need to get there. We’ll see…

What’s the thinking on Ichiro being overrated - is it the general issue of singles hitters (including Rose) being overrated? That’s what initially comes to my mind (and makes sense) but interested to know if there’s something more I’m not aware of.

We have discussed him before, and it’ll be interesting to see if/when he gets to Cooperstown. I believe he will go, and could go first-ballot, I suppose. To me, it comes to this… if he eclipses the 2500-hit barrier in MLB, I believe he’ll get in first ballot easily. If he ends up between 2,000 and 2,499, he’ll likely still get in… but it may not be first ballot.

The other thing to be aware of is who comes up with him at the same time. Recall that Carlton Fisk was *not* a first-ballot HoFer… which is stunning to me. But Nolan Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount were all first-timers the same year as Fisk and for whatever reason, enough voters decided that “three” was the maximum number of first-timers “allowed”… so Fisk waited until Year 2. It doesn’t diminish his candidacy or his greatness one bit of course… but it does speak to the occassional whimsy of voters when it comes to first-ballot “status”.

Btw, in that 1999 vote, Nolan Ryan got 98.8% of the vote… yet in mind, Brett, Yount and Fisk were all more deserving as HoFers. Nolan Ryan was a physical marvel, who threw the ball real hard and real fast - but he is among the most overrated players in the history of MLB… perhaps in the history of sports. Yes, he had some amazing accomplishments - but there are any number of better *pitchers* (including some not in the HoF… beginning with Bert Blyleven, fwiw) in the history of the game.

Hey… Ryan won his 300 games - in addition to the strikeouts and no-hitters. I’m not disputing he deserves enshrinement. But look at his *entire* body of work (including the walks, the ERA, the other peripherals) compared to other “great” pitchers… and start with non-inductee Bert Blyleven. That’s all I’m sayin’.

Back to the point, Ichiro is a bit like Ryan to me… as noted at the start of this post. I think he’s overrated in terms of his MLB accomplishments… but that only means he’ll get a higher vote total than someone else more deserving, it doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get his bust in Cooperstown.