Another look at whether Clemens is worth it
May 25th, 2007 by Tank
comes from a math professor from Wisconsin at slate.com. It’s a decent analysis, running through several Baseball Prospectus contributors’ pet formulae. Of course, while the numbers do put some flesh on the bones, it ultimately nets out to this: if Clemens puts them over the top he is likely worth what they’re paying him, if they still miss the playoffs, then not so much.
May 25th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Ultimately, Clemens is in a pretty good position - as I stated previously. If he’s good and the Yankees make the playoffs, he’s the savior. If he’s good and they don’t make the playoffs, he’s off the hook. If he’s bad and they make the playoffs, then we’ll be treated to “yeah, he didn’t perform on the field but he helped in the clubhouse and with the young pitchers to put them over the top”. If he’s bad and they miss the playoffs by a mile (say 8+ games), then he’s off the hook. But if he performs poorly *and* they barely miss the playoffs, *then* the question will be: Could the Yankees have made the playoffs with Rasner/Clippard/DeSalvo/et al… especially considering what the youngsters overall have done to this point.
He’s “worth” it in that they’re doing everything possible to make the playoffs again this year - and only hindsight will deem it a “bad move” if the fifth of the five scenarios above plays out.