Beckett trade, revisited
On December 29th, 2005, the Florida Marlins‘ traded SP Josh Beckett, 3B Mike Lowell and RP Guillermo Mota to the Boston Red Sox for SS Hanley Ramirez, SP Anibal Sanchez, P Harvey Garcia and P Jesus Delgado.
Was this a good deal? There are many loyal Red Sox fans who berated the trade after Beckett struggled in 2006 clearly being outperformed by Sanchez, and Ramirez took home the ROY trophy. Ramirez only improved in 2007, and the Red Sox received shoddy SS play from Julio Lugo. If you want to argue that Lugo was acceptable in the second half with his .280 AVE… fine, but it is no where near the production of Hanley Ramirez who put up a .332/.386/.562 line with 125 runs, 29 Bombs, and 51 SBs. Lugo meanwhile ended up with an OBP sub .300. Sanchez was lost in May with a torn labrum, and may never be the same pitcher.
Beckett OTOH has really established himself as the premier RHP in MLB. It is likely that he will lead the Red Sox to the World Series title this year.
Not sure how to factor Lowell into this equation. Clearly the Marlins would have traded Lowell and his contract for a bag of balls and a thank you note, but he has been huge for the Sox. The Sox didn’t have to give up any players to have Lowell included in this deal, so does that help Theo’s argument of a great trade, or would it be more similar to a ridiculously good FA signing? Don’t know.
Would the Sox make this deal again? Anibel Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez could have lead them to a title last year. Josh Beckett and Lowell could easily do the same in ‘07. For the future, which side would you want to have? I would go with Ramirez and the hope that Sanchez comes back… but it is a lot closer than it was 12 months ago….
October 10th, 2007 at 5:41 am
Wow. “Anibal Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez could have led them to a title last year”. I mean… wow. In 2006, Hanley Ramirez - 25 Win Shares, Anibal Sanchez - 11 WS; Mike Lowell - 18 WS, Josh Beckett - 12 WS. So the Marlin kids produced 36 WS and the Sox guys produced 30 WS. Three WS equals one team win… so there’s a difference of 6 WS, or 2 team wins.
The Sox finished 11 games out of the division, and 9 games out of the wild card. Um… they’re not making the playoffs… much less contending for a WS title. Where do you get that?
Hanley Ramirez was the deserved ROY last year, and approaching age 24, looks to be on track for a terrific career. Don’t be surprised to see Ramirez with repeated top-10 MVP finishes, and he may win one (or more) before he’s done.
Anibal Sanchez is a wonderful talent, who’s hurt… again (as he was while in the minors with Boston). He’s turning 24 early next year and may shake the injury bug, I suppose. Or he may end up with as many future starts as Kerry Wood. Tough to tell with a young pitcher with (repeated) arm trouble.
Josh Beckett is 27 and will win the AL CY this year (even though Sabathia is more deserving, but I digress). I submit he will be in contention for future CYs as well. He is an ace with the ability to perform in a town that not all players can perform in. He’s thrown two shutouts in 166 career regular-season starts, and he’s thrown three shutouts in 6 postseason starts. His regular season ERA is 3.74. His postseason ERA is 1.74. Me likey having him on the Red Sox.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Mike Lowell. He’ll be 34 this offseason. He’s coming off his best season since his career year of 2003 (when his team won a WS… hmmm….). Aside from what he brings to the team at the plate and in the field, he’s unanimously viewed as a terrific clubhouse presence and an absolute clubhouse leader. If he does leave via FA, the Sox get two compensatory picks (for the record, they’ve used such picks recently for guys like Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury… two guys you should’ve heard of by now, and will hear of for years to come).
I said it at the time of the trade: This will most likely end up being a win-win for both sides. And I stand by that.
But the Sox contend for a title in 2006 if they don’t make this trade? Wow. What are they putting in that MGD these days? And how many did you have before posting these thoughts?
October 10th, 2007 at 10:52 am
Do we also know that the Sox could’ve gotten Lowell outside of that trade? I contend that he might’ve ended up as throw-in-contract fodder in a deal with another team. And Mike Lowell, despite Papi’s numbers this year (in what many consider an off-year…I mean, have ya SEEN his numbers?), Mike Lowell was the MVP of the Red Sox this year.
October 10th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Oh… you mean where he led ML in OBP, was #10 in ML in BA, and was second in ML in OPS (0.001 behind ARod, and his “amazing season”)? Yeah… that guy really dragged down the Sox offense. But in his defense, Manny had a down year so he just wasn’t seeing the pitches he would usually see… I guess.
Mike Lowell is widely considered the Sox MVP *relative to expectations*. Based on raw numbers, it’s Papi - as explained above. But based on the fact that everyone (starting with me) expected what had become a customary second-half swoon, and instead he got *better* in the second half - and he was producing when Drew, Lugo and even Manny weren’t… Lowell is seen as the MVP.
I’ll put it this way: The Sox don’t make the playoffs without either Lowell or Papi. And now that Drew is finally hitting like he has historically, and Manny is hitting like he has historically, and Papi and Lowell are *still* hitting like they did for all of 2007, well… it’s a good thing.
October 12th, 2007 at 7:27 am
Papi had a monster year, no doubt, but I’ll go ahead and give Lowell the nod for team MVP based on his additional contributions with the glove…which are significant.
I also think that, with apologies to Mr. Varitek (who is the glue), Lowell was the rock of the team this year in the sense that he was so consistent and produced over and over again at times when the team needed him.
But it’s a tough call given the obvious monster season that Papi had, as you pointed out.
October 12th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
If the Red Sox would have offered a single A non prospect and offered to assume Lowell’s salary, they could have made that trade. That is fact.
According to your precious Win-Share Stat. Ramirez is worth 25 and Alex Gonzalez is worth 9. I guess from your math above you take the difference and divide by 3 to get 5 wins? As far as Beckett actually having more win shares than Sanchez in 2006, I couldn’t exactly stomach that, so I actually went to the website that has the winshares, and Sanchez gets a -.7 for hitting and Beckett gets a +.8. That is great Becket went 3-7 with a HR in interleague play, but that really shouldn’t be a basis of comparison. As far as just “pitching” Sanchez was an 11.7 and Beckett a 10.9, but apparently that wouldnt have accounted for any more wins??
So you are saying Pitcher A throws a full season with an ERA over 5 and Pitcher B goes half a season with a 10-3 record and a 2.83 ERA and they account for the same amount of Win Shares? I don’t think so. Sanchez only made 17 starts. Win Shares seem to be a “counting” stat more than anything, and it very likely that the Red Sox would have won some of the other 16 games that would have been started by someone else…. or more easily, why not just divide Beckett’s contribution in half and give you 5 win shares.
In that Case… Sanchez and Ramirez would have had 37 WS and Beckett and Gonzalez would have had 14 for a difference of 23 win shares. It would have been a MUCH different season
That is also assuming that Win Shares are absolut. I believe that it is a very flawed stat, and very subjective with a huge margin for error.
October 15th, 2007 at 5:52 am
How does *any* of that get you two “Ramirez and Sanchez could’ve led the Sox to the 2006 WS title”? The Red Sox weren’t close in 2006. Well, they were through the first four months - and then finished in third place in the division. I’ll concede that if the Sox had been precient enough to make a small trade for Lowell while keeping Ramirez and Sanchez then, yes… they likely would’ve finished second in the division. However, I struggle to devise an argument where they get into the playoffs… much less win the WS.
Meanwhile, *this* year - with Sanchez out due to arm trouble (again) - Beckett *is* giving the Sox a realistic shot at a WS title.
And yes, win shares is clearly a counting stat - in other words, if you only pitch half a year, you have to do twice as well to help your team as much as a guy who pitches the whole year (well, not exactly… but you get the point).
And that’s an interesting bait-and-switch suggesting that the Sox should’ve seen that Lowell was going to rebound and only traded for him so that… apparently… they could hold onto Ramirez and Sanchez to make a 2006 WS run. Wow… I’m a Red Sox fan who can squint with the best of ‘em - but that’s just silly.
No doubt the Sox got lucky with Lowell. I 100% agree with that. But this trade will likely come down to a potential HOF pitcher traded for a potential HOF hitter - in the long-term. I submit, again, that history will show this to be a win-win for both sides.
And if the Sox manage to get past the Indians and Rockies (clearly no sure thing), then it’s obvious that they’d be “ahead” on the trade - but again… the Marlins are building a nice young, talented ballclub there that could certainly do what the 1997 and 2003 teams did (for consistency, likly in 2009). But how many more ML starts do you expect Anibal Sanchez to get, anyway?
October 15th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
The point with Lowell, was that it was equivilant to a free agent signing, and wasn’t really part of this trade. In reality (with eyes wide open), the Sox would have had to give up more to the Marlins in order to exclude Lowell from this trade. While I was attempting to make the argument easier by simply excluding Lowell, the truth is that the Sox would have had to trade an additional top prospect to get Beckett without Lowell.
That being said, what is so difficult to understand here. Hanley Ramirez is a HUGE upgrade over Alex Gonzalez, and Anibel Sanchez was a MUCH better pitcher than Josh Beckett in 2006. Those 2 changes, I submit, were worth a minimum of 8 games (probably closer to 12) which would have put the Sox back in the race, and “could” have led them to a WS win.
My initial question had nothing to do with Lowell. Obviously he was a productive player.
More simply, for 2008, would you trade Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez? If the salaries were the same would you make the trade for 2008?
October 29th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Absolutely. A perennial Cy Young candidate in his prime, who’s proven to be stud postseason performer? That’s easy. Hanley Ramirez looks to be a wonderful young player with a great career ahead of him - and Sanchez is a nice talent who will spend more time on the DL than off of it. I’ll make that trade every day and twice on Sunday. How far did Tulowitski get the Rockies in the WS? How far did Beckett get the Red Sox?
Yet you’d rather have a very talented young SS than a shutdown starter? If Beckett’s on the Rockies, then they win game 1 and 5 (unless its 1 and 4, so Hurdle can use him in game 7) - and this thing goes at least six. Plus, the bullpen is saved from having to bail out at least one starter. Papajima was so effective in the WS and LCS cuz they *didn’t* have to come into Beckett starts. Huge.
I proved that Sanchez was *not* a much better pitcher than Beckett in 2006 - although you chose to ignore the facts in furtherence of your foolhardy theory. There is no way statstically, logically, or blotto drunk that you can show that the 2006 Red Sox with Ramirez and Sanchez instead of Beckett get to the playoffs… much less win a WS.
What we do know is that the 2007 Red Sox with Beckett (and Lowell, or not, depending on whether you want to include hiim) *did* win the WS - after winning their division for the first time in 12 years… after finishing with the best record in baseball. Cy Young Award winner Josh Beckett is a *huge* part of the reason.
You slay me.
P.S. Would you trade Tulowitzski and an oft-injured pitching talent for Johan Santana? If not, you’re a moron. Santana’s (hopefully) on the market this winter, and I’ll gladly trade a top positional prospect and a pitching prospect with injury issues for him in a second… I’m glad to see the Brewers will not be competing with me for Santana’s services. One less team to worry about.