Yet you’d rather have a very talented young SS than a shutdown starter? If Beckett’s on the Rockies, then they win game 1 and 5 (unless its 1 and 4, so Hurdle can use him in game 7) - and this thing goes at least six. Plus, the bullpen is saved from having to bail out at least one starter. Papajima was so effective in the WS and LCS cuz they *didn’t* have to come into Beckett starts. Huge.

I proved that Sanchez was *not* a much better pitcher than Beckett in 2006 - although you chose to ignore the facts in furtherence of your foolhardy theory. There is no way statstically, logically, or blotto drunk that you can show that the 2006 Red Sox with Ramirez and Sanchez instead of Beckett get to the playoffs… much less win a WS.

What we do know is that the 2007 Red Sox with Beckett (and Lowell, or not, depending on whether you want to include hiim) *did* win the WS - after winning their division for the first time in 12 years… after finishing with the best record in baseball. Cy Young Award winner Josh Beckett is a *huge* part of the reason.

You slay me.

P.S. Would you trade Tulowitzski and an oft-injured pitching talent for Johan Santana? If not, you’re a moron. Santana’s (hopefully) on the market this winter, and I’ll gladly trade a top positional prospect and a pitching prospect with injury issues for him in a second… I’m glad to see the Brewers will not be competing with me for Santana’s services. One less team to worry about.

That being said, what is so difficult to understand here. Hanley Ramirez is a HUGE upgrade over Alex Gonzalez, and Anibel Sanchez was a MUCH better pitcher than Josh Beckett in 2006. Those 2 changes, I submit, were worth a minimum of 8 games (probably closer to 12) which would have put the Sox back in the race, and “could” have led them to a WS win.

My initial question had nothing to do with Lowell. Obviously he was a productive player.

More simply, for 2008, would you trade Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez? If the salaries were the same would you make the trade for 2008?

Meanwhile, *this* year - with Sanchez out due to arm trouble (again) - Beckett *is* giving the Sox a realistic shot at a WS title.

And yes, win shares is clearly a counting stat - in other words, if you only pitch half a year, you have to do twice as well to help your team as much as a guy who pitches the whole year (well, not exactly… but you get the point).

And that’s an interesting bait-and-switch suggesting that the Sox should’ve seen that Lowell was going to rebound and only traded for him so that… apparently… they could hold onto Ramirez and Sanchez to make a 2006 WS run. Wow… I’m a Red Sox fan who can squint with the best of ‘em - but that’s just silly.

No doubt the Sox got lucky with Lowell. I 100% agree with that. But this trade will likely come down to a potential HOF pitcher traded for a potential HOF hitter - in the long-term. I submit, again, that history will show this to be a win-win for both sides.

And if the Sox manage to get past the Indians and Rockies (clearly no sure thing), then it’s obvious that they’d be “ahead” on the trade - but again… the Marlins are building a nice young, talented ballclub there that could certainly do what the 1997 and 2003 teams did (for consistency, likly in 2009). But how many more ML starts do you expect Anibal Sanchez to get, anyway?

According to your precious Win-Share Stat. Ramirez is worth 25 and Alex Gonzalez is worth 9. I guess from your math above you take the difference and divide by 3 to get 5 wins? As far as Beckett actually having more win shares than Sanchez in 2006, I couldn’t exactly stomach that, so I actually went to the website that has the winshares, and Sanchez gets a -.7 for hitting and Beckett gets a +.8. That is great Becket went 3-7 with a HR in interleague play, but that really shouldn’t be a basis of comparison. As far as just “pitching” Sanchez was an 11.7 and Beckett a 10.9, but apparently that wouldnt have accounted for any more wins??

So you are saying Pitcher A throws a full season with an ERA over 5 and Pitcher B goes half a season with a 10-3 record and a 2.83 ERA and they account for the same amount of Win Shares? I don’t think so. Sanchez only made 17 starts. Win Shares seem to be a “counting” stat more than anything, and it very likely that the Red Sox would have won some of the other 16 games that would have been started by someone else…. or more easily, why not just divide Beckett’s contribution in half and give you 5 win shares.

In that Case… Sanchez and Ramirez would have had 37 WS and Beckett and Gonzalez would have had 14 for a difference of 23 win shares. It would have been a MUCH different season

That is also assuming that Win Shares are absolut. I believe that it is a very flawed stat, and very subjective with a huge margin for error.

I also think that, with apologies to Mr. Varitek (who is the glue), Lowell was the rock of the team this year in the sense that he was so consistent and produced over and over again at times when the team needed him.

But it’s a tough call given the obvious monster season that Papi had, as you pointed out.

Mike Lowell is widely considered the Sox MVP *relative to expectations*. Based on raw numbers, it’s Papi - as explained above. But based on the fact that everyone (starting with me) expected what had become a customary second-half swoon, and instead he got *better* in the second half - and he was producing when Drew, Lugo and even Manny weren’t… Lowell is seen as the MVP.

I’ll put it this way: The Sox don’t make the playoffs without either Lowell or Papi. And now that Drew is finally hitting like he has historically, and Manny is hitting like he has historically, and Papi and Lowell are *still* hitting like they did for all of 2007, well… it’s a good thing.

The Sox finished 11 games out of the division, and 9 games out of the wild card. Um… they’re not making the playoffs… much less contending for a WS title. Where do you get that?

Hanley Ramirez was the deserved ROY last year, and approaching age 24, looks to be on track for a terrific career. Don’t be surprised to see Ramirez with repeated top-10 MVP finishes, and he may win one (or more) before he’s done.

Anibal Sanchez is a wonderful talent, who’s hurt… again (as he was while in the minors with Boston). He’s turning 24 early next year and may shake the injury bug, I suppose. Or he may end up with as many future starts as Kerry Wood. Tough to tell with a young pitcher with (repeated) arm trouble.

Josh Beckett is 27 and will win the AL CY this year (even though Sabathia is more deserving, but I digress). I submit he will be in contention for future CYs as well. He is an ace with the ability to perform in a town that not all players can perform in. He’s thrown two shutouts in 166 career regular-season starts, and he’s thrown three shutouts in 6 postseason starts. His regular season ERA is 3.74. His postseason ERA is 1.74. Me likey having him on the Red Sox.

It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Mike Lowell. He’ll be 34 this offseason. He’s coming off his best season since his career year of 2003 (when his team won a WS… hmmm….). Aside from what he brings to the team at the plate and in the field, he’s unanimously viewed as a terrific clubhouse presence and an absolute clubhouse leader. If he does leave via FA, the Sox get two compensatory picks (for the record, they’ve used such picks recently for guys like Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury… two guys you should’ve heard of by now, and will hear of for years to come).

I said it at the time of the trade: This will most likely end up being a win-win for both sides. And I stand by that.

But the Sox contend for a title in 2006 if they don’t make this trade? Wow. What are they putting in that MGD these days? And how many did you have before posting these thoughts?