Ben Sheets - Cy Young
The site has been up far too long without a post regarding the Brewers. I have several topics, so be prepared for a lengthy series. Sheets was not the first topic on my list, but after attending Opening Day yesterday, I had to write about him.
Ben Sheets is the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball right now. There has been two main questions regarding Sheets during his career. 1) He doesn’t win enough games. 2) He can’t stay healthy.
Sheets has been a part of some horrible Brewer teams since he arrived in the majors in 2001. I’ll address that in the future, but I don’t think it is too difficult to accept the premise that the team has absolutely sucked for a very long time. That is only a portion of the reason he hasn’t won many games, and has a 62-69 career record. Sheets is very stubborn. He was very comfortable pitching to Chad Moeller, and wanted him as his personal catcher. While I am stipulating that Sheets is among the best pitchers in the game, he is clearly one of the worst hitters. When you have 2 automatic outs in the lineup everyday, it puts a lot of pressure on the other hitters. In 2007, Sheets does not have this issue. Estrada is the new catcher, and he is an above average hitter. I do not anticipate Sheets having any games like his 1 hit shutout ball performance in Anaheim in 2004 where he ended up with a no-decision.
Sheets is very healthy right now. Last year, he tried to pitch through the pain, but wasn’t fully healthy until late August. He had a couple games where he gave up 7 runs due to his fastball topping out at 85. Yesterday, he was throwing 94 in the 9th inning. Obviously Sheets’ health is paramount to the teams success. If you search Google for “If Ben Sheets can stay healthy” or “if Sheets can stay healthy” you will get 261 entries.
Sheets is basically a two pitch guy: fastball, curve. His used to throw a 2 seam fastball in the upper 90s, but has gone to a four-seam fastball that ranges from 94-98, with far more movement. He has the best curveball in the game. He can either throw it for a strike, or use it as an out pitch in the dirt. No one else has a curveball that batters swing at in the dirt as much as Sheets.
His control is unquestionably the best in the game. The most intriguing stat this year could be Sheets’ ratio of Walks/Wins. Greg Maddux in his prime in 1995 had 23 walks and 19 wins. Sheets could easily end the year with more wins than walks. Last year he had 11 walks in 106 innings (to go along with 116 strikeouts. Far and away the best ratio in the league in both K/BB and BB/IP.
Sheets also answered any question about his big-game ability by shutting out the heavily favored Cuban National team to win the gold medal.
April 3rd, 2007 at 4:23 pm
I was lucky to come across a picture of this “best pitcher in the NL,” you know, to embellish your article. However, I can’t seem to embed the image in a comment, so here’s the linky:
http://i.a.cnn.net/si/images/baseball/mlb/players/6646.jpg
A few more points that your analysis left out about this “best pitcher in the NL”
* All-Star (2005, 2006)
* Led National League in wins (20, 2004)
* Led NL in games started (35, 2004)
* 5-time Top 5 in voting for the Cy Young Award (5th, 2001; 4th, 2002; 3rd, 2004; 4th, 2005; 4th, 2006)
* TSN Rookie of the Year (2001)
* Olympic gold medalist (2000)
* National League Championship Series MVP (2005)
* Back to Back 20 win seasons (2004-05)
* Part of 2003 six man no-hitter against the New York Yankees.
* Has most wins of any pitcher for the past 5 years.
* Led National League in ERA (2.98, 2006)
Just thought I’d help your article a bit.
April 3rd, 2007 at 4:45 pm
Since said pitcher isn’t able to complete a game, and team is saddled with Brad “throwing gas on fire” Lidge as a closer, I would say that Oswalt’s days of 20 win seasons are a thing of the past
April 3rd, 2007 at 6:23 pm
I love your sample size of one game
Might I suggest a sample size of 6 years? 62-69 or 98-47? Or, okay, something they’re somewhat in control of (3.81 vs. 3.04 ERA) ?
Intangibles of durability? That’s just crazy-talk. I see now that I should judge on the last outing they had. Who wants consistency, or a 30mph difference in fastball-curveball. IMHO, RoyO’s hook is equal to or better than Sheets. That’s just one of the things Sheets gets trounced on in this comparison…
Pounder the 20 wins for your guy (with the division-winning team) vs. mine?
April 3rd, 2007 at 6:31 pm
In 2004, Sheets was clearly a stud. An ERA+ of 154 (2.70 vs. league average 4.14). He had 264 K to just 32 BB. Yes kids, that’s a better than 8:1 K:BB ratio. He made 34 starts, and threw 237 IP. As you note though, due to the lousy team he pitched for, he amazingly ended up with a 12-14 record. Next time somebody wants to use win/loss as an effective metric for starting pitchers… just trot out Ben Sheets 2004 stat line, and ask them how they get through life being so damn ignorant.
Now, as you also note, health is the key issue. Sheets will only be 29 this July - so he should still be in his prime. Last year he had an ERA+ of 118 (3.82 vs. league average 4.49) - to go with that K/BB ratio of better than 10:1. To put that in perspective, Tom Glavine had a 3.82 ERA last year in the NL… course he made 15 more starts (totaling 92 additional innings) on Sheets - but Glavine’s K/BB ratio was more like 2:1.
Sheets career ERA+ is 111 - although his past three years have been 154, 127, and 118. Presumably Danny expects that downward trend to reverse course - along with the downward trend of starts the past three years (34, 22, 17). Perhaps. For Danny’s sake, let’s hope Ben Sheets isn’t the Dairyland’s answer to Mark Prior.
Ben Sheets had showed great promise in the past, and could have a Cy Young-caliber year this year (if his team actually gives him run support for a change). Course, let’s all remember that on Opening Day, Gil Meche also gave up only one run to a playoff-caliber team. I’m just sayin’… lots of baseball to be played, people.