Buehrle/Zito
Barry Zito and Mark Buehrle are two very good left-handed pitchers, and neither has reached the age of 30 yet. Buehrle has a WS ring (and earned it), while Zito is still chasing that dream. Fwiw, an informal poll of casual baseball fans asking which pitcher is better would probably have the majority pick Zito… but would they be right? Take a look…
Barry Zito signed a 7yr/$126 million FA deal with the Giants this past offseason. If my abacus is correct, that’s an average of $18 million per year. He’s 29 years old. Over the previous three years (2004-06) with the A’s, here’s what he did: 103 GS, 662.3 IP, 6.4 IP/GS; 4.05 ERA, 1.33 WHIP; 6.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.8 K/BB; 41-34 W/L.
Thusfar in 2007, his first year in the NL with the Giants: 15GS, 87.7 IP, 5.8 IP/GS; 4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP; 5.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 K/BB; 6-8 W/L. He’s performed worse in every category so far in 2007, when compared to his previous-three-year averages. Its a good thing he’s got a seven-year deal, as it may take some time for him to live up to expectations.
I bring up Barry Zito right now because word is that White Sox GM Kenny Williams has put Mark Buehrle on the market. Buehrle will be a free agent after this year, and apparently the White Sox decided they don’t want him - at least at his asking price. Now I’m not part of that negotiation, but I’ve heard 5yrs/$75 million (i.e. $15 mil/yr) is the neighborhood. If that’s the case, then Williams better get a king’s ransom for Buehrle in trade - cuz I expect teams would be lining up to get Buehrle under contract at those numbers.
Compare Buehrle to Zito - the “best FA pitcher available” this past offseason: Over the past three full seasons (2004-06), 100 GS, 686.0 IP, 6.9 IP/GS; 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP; 5.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.0 K/BB; 44-31 W/L.
Thusfar in 2007 (when Buehrle turned 28), 13 GS, 86.0 IP, 6.6 IP/GS; 3.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP; 5.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 3.3 K/BB; 4-3 W/L.
So… if I’m to believe what I’ve heard (which may or may not be the case, but work with me here)… I can trade for a younger, better version of the best FA pitcher available this past offseason. Now, yes, no need to give up talent in signing a FA - only money (heh-heh… “only” money). Also, rumor has it that Williams will not allow a team acquiring Buehrle to talk contract extension with him i.e. acquiring team rolling the dice that he’ll simply be a three- to four-month rental (depending on playoffs). That would seem to severely limit Williams return, and I suspect he’ll back off that requirement if he’s truly interested in maximizing return in a Buehrle trade.
Still, I don’t get why Williams is trading Buehrle rather than signing him up now to prevent him from going to free agency - unless he believes someone will really overpay with a Herschel Walker-type package (to borrow from football, for a moment). If he is insistent on trading him, as a Red Sox fan, I’m very interested to see what sort of package Theo will put together. I’m trying to figure out just how many blue chip prospects Theo should send to the Windy City. Is CF Ellsbury untouchable? Ps Lester, Buchholz? SS Jed Lowrie? Would Williams pull a Jim Bowden and require *all* four of them (in which case, personally, I’d politely decline)?
It would seem to take at least a couple good young prospects to get Buehrle - but prospects are still just guys with potential (as Don Criqui once noted during a football telecast, “Potential… that French word that means you ain’t done nuthin’ meaningful yet.”) After all, Buehrle is in the prime of a very good career, a proven commodity who can clearly be counted on… this year, and for years to come. On the other hand, while Buehrle’s better than Zito, he’s not exactly Pedro in his prime (i.e. *that* special)… and recall it only took two top prospects (pitchers Tony Armas and Carl Pavano) for the Sox to get Pedro from Montreal. Keep in mind that in the near future, the Sox would seem to need a CF to replace Coco, a SS to replace Lugo, and more than one pitcher to replace Schilling, Wakefield, and Tavarez in the rotation (although Wakefield could give the Sox another five years, and Tavarez has done his job this year, fwiw).
Investing long-term in pitching is always dicey - but if a team is going to invest long-term in pitching, then a 28-yr-old lefty with Buehrle’s track record would seem to be a reasonable risk worth undertaking… assuming a reasonable investment (in terms of prospects traded and contract required).
This should be very interesting, and extremely fun, to watch.
What would you give up to get Buehrle (assuming you could sign him past this year)?
June 26th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
That is really not a fair question, because unless you are the Cardinals, you can’t assume you are going to sign him past this year. The question is really what would you give up for a 3 month rental of very good left-handed pitcher. Despite what Ken Rosental says http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6955650
he is not coming to the Brewers, and I wouldn’t want to give up the package that it would take to get him. I don’t think the Sox are going to get what they want for Buehrle, since he has already decided to sign with St. Louis in the offseason
June 26th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Hmmm… I hadn’t heard about his apparent intent on going to St. Louis. If that’s the case, then I expect (and hope) Theo will not be interested in him for only a half-season unless (a) Schilling is hurt more than we thought, and (b) Buerhle can be add “cheap” (i.e. no top prospects).
To answer my own question: If the Red Sox actually could sign Buerhle to a long-term deal, then I’d surrender Lester and an OF prospect not named Ellsbury - i.e. Brandon Moss or David Murphy. Both appear poised to potentially be decent ML OFs (think Matt Murton) - and the White Sox will need OF help when Dye goes (either via trade at mid-season or via FA at the end of the season). If a third prospect, a lesser prospect, needs to be thrown in… fine. But I wouldn’t move Buchholz, cuz his ceiling appears to be higher than what Buerhle is. I think Lester’s ceiling is what Buehrle already is (and should continue to be for the next 3-5 years), so that’s why I’d be okay moving Lester.
I like Ellsbury’s speed to cover CF, and to give the Sox that component offensively - but Moss and Murphy won’t see appreciable time in Boston with Drew there another several years and Manny potentially there another several years (if the Sox pick up the options, which they very well may).
Assuming Lester would go, I’d then *not* include (in addition to Buchholz) Bowden, Masterson or Bard. Regarding Delcarmen and/or Hansen, their trade value seems to have plummetted since they were perhaps considered near “untouchable” in 2006 (at least by many fans), so its hard to see them included in any deadline deals… but moving one or the other to get this deal done is also fine with me.
Like I said… this is all based on the apparently misguided notion that the Red Sox can actually sign Buehrle to a long-term deal if/when they acquire him.
June 27th, 2007 at 10:19 am
I read/heard somewhere that Burehrle thinks Zito’s contract is a pretty good barometer for him. Wow…
June 27th, 2007 at 10:26 am
Based on the fact that he’s a year younger and has put up better numbers, I’d say he’s right. Doesn’t mean someone will give it to him like Sabean gave it to Zito… but if I were him (or his agent), darn straight I’d use Zito’s contract as the starting point in discussions - backed up by numbers like the ones posted above.
June 28th, 2007 at 10:32 am
Meanwhile, he signed a 4 year extension worth a “paltry” $50 million. Peanuts, compared to that Zito contract…
June 29th, 2007 at 9:09 am
That is a steal for the White Sox if it indeed gets done, as its not official just yet. Now I suspect that Buehrle and his family can live very comfortably on that $50 million (less agent fees and taxes, still a nice number) - on top of the $27 million he’s grossed thusfar in his career… so if we want to call it a “hometown discount”, fine… but if Buehrle agrees to that deal, clearly he’s *not* “just about the money”. In short, he could get a lot closer to $126 million than to $50 million on the open market. He and his agent have to know that.