Belicheck “fell” into Brady in the 6th round - course, he kept him as a 4th QB early on rather than lose him. Um… how many NFL teams keep *four* QBs on the roster? Maybe he knew what he had, and saw what could develop? Then when Bledsoe came back healthy, he leaves the young’un in (long before he displayed any MVP-caliber skills) at the expense of the veteran (who (a) had taken the franchise to a Super Bowl, and (b) isn’t supposed to lose his job due to injury, according to NFL lore).

As to Cassel, got him in the 7th round… kept him around for several years, obviously seeing something in him - even though he hadn’t played since *high school*. Cassel didn’t look good to most last training camp, indeed locally, everyone was complaining that the Pats flaw was that they needed a back-up QB. Others pooh-poohed that notion since “Brady never gets hurt”. So Brady gets hurt in the first half of the first game and… unlike most other NFL coaches (who would’ve immediately gotten Culpepper, or some other “veteran” off the scrap heap to suck wind for the most prolific offense in the history of the game), he sticks with the guy who hasn’t played since *high school*. Hmmm… seems like he knew what he was doing there, as well, eh?

Has Belicheck hit on every draft choice? Nope. But first of all, Ty Wheatley looked pretty good in his rookie year to me - and keep in mind fourth-round draft choice Asante Samuel wasn’t the stud DB in his rookie year (that was second-round pick Eugene Wilson)… but he became the prize of the last year’s FA class. Merriweather may or may not be considered a “starter” last season, but he played plenty - and generally played well. I wouldn’t put him in the “dud” pile at all… again considering that (a) he had a HoF caliber safety ahead of him (in Rodney Harrison) and a more experienced James Sanders (who just re-signed for big bucks cuz… um, he can play) ahead of him, and (b) two years do not a career make. Hey - at least he’s not on IR.

Maroney seems to be a “miss” - course, Joe Addai did bubkus last season when C Jeff Saturday was hurt. I know… I had Addai on my fantasy team last year. Fwiw, Dominic Rhodes ran better than Joe Addai last year… so let’s not elevate him unnecessarily. As for D’Angelo Williams, he had a great second half of the season last year - what’s he done in his career to that point? Oh, yeah… sit behind the likes of Deshaun Foster. Please.

If we’re going to cherry pick Belicheck draft picks, let’s look at a few others: Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo (1st round), future HoFer Richard Seymour (1st round - taken at #6, ahead of several other D-Lineman that were “projected” higher), perennial Pro Bowl candidate Ty Warren (1st round), perennial Pro Bowl candidate Vince Wilfork (1st round), Pro Bowl OL Logan Mankins (end of the 1st round), Pro Bowl OL Matt Light (2nd round), Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch (2nd round), Mike Vrabel’s replacement Shawn Crable (3rd round), Pro Bowl center Dan Koppen (5th round)… those are the ones that come immediately to mind. Does that mean Belicheck is a perfect drafter? Nope - but he does tend to know what he’s doing.

Now, does that mean a #34 pick is more valuable than a #19 pick? Nope - that’s just dumb. Depending on a number of variables, *maybe* you could make the argument that Belicheck would do better value-wise (i.e. the talent is basically the same from 19 to 34 and he’d pay less given the draft position), but it’s downright dumb to suggest a #34 pick is more valuable than a #19 pick… for the simple fact (as we’ve already noted) that he can trade that #19 pick (if he doesn’t want it) for a high second-round pick *plus* something else (even if it’s a 7th-round pick… to grab a Matt Cassel or a David Givens). Yes, maybe Belicheck’s draft pick at #34 will turn out to be a better NFL player than whoever goes at #19… *maybe* - but until the picks are made, the #19 pick is *clearly* more valuable than the #34 pick. Morons.

Back to the trade, if the 3-way deal was actually offered/on the table, what is the explanation for Belicheck walking away? There is no legitimate explanation. And please spare me the “he was helping out his buddy Pioli” - cuz why wouldn’t he “help out his buddy McDaniels”, by that logic? It’s dumb. Depending on who you believe, either (a) the trade offer was never actually made, or at best (b) was made too late i.e. the KC deal was already agreed to. *If* that deal *could* have come together (in time for the Pats to clear cap space to make the FA moves they needed/wanted to)? Sucks for the Pats - cuz they coulda got more. But by the same token, if the Broncos (and Bucs) wanted to make a deal - perhaps they should’ve indicated so earlier than a month after the Pats started asking around.

And all *that* said, I fail to see why the hell the Broncos would move Cutler to bring in Cassel. That makes less sense than insisting that a #34 pick is “better” than a #19 pick.

That being said, it is nice to see the New England fanbase see everything Belicheck does with rose colored glasses. Falling into an MVP QB sure covers up a lot of other flaws.

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/extras/askreiss/03_03_09/?page=1

In short, from what he can tell, KC was the only team who showed interest. Denver initially showed no interest, then tried to get on board “too late”. The Pats didn’t wait cuz (a) they only had one team interested and didn’t want them to do something else (if the Pats waited too long) so that they’re be no teams interested and they’d have $28 million in cap space tied up in the QBs, and (b) they wanted/needed to make FA moves and had no cap space to do so, unless/until they moved Cassel (at least). Reiss still seems confused about Vrabel, like many of us - but seems to conclude that (a) the Pats wanted to move Vrabel to a team where he couldn’t hurt them rather than risk releasing him and having him sign in the division (or with a championship contender who they might meet in the playoffs) and/or (b) they felt his value didn’t coincide with his salary/cap hit (which I personally disagree with, fwiw).

Interesting to note that apparently prior to this trade going down, Reiss is on record as saying the best the Pats could do (for Cassel straight up, though) would be a high second-round pick. He based that on feedback he received from digging around and ascertaining the (apparently limited) trade market for Cassel.

Mike Reiss does a nice job - so whatever Mortensen, and anyone else reports, I’d tend to believe/follow Reiss’s thoughts on the topic.

I heard someone comment yesterday that “well, Belicheck sees more value in the #34 pick cuz he’ll get as good a player as he would at #19 but won’t have to pay first-round money”. Even if that’s true, it’s still preposterous. For the sake of brevity, I’ll concede that *maybe* this draft is deep enough and Belicheck is that much better at drafting than everyone between 19 and 31 that he would indeed get “as good a player”. Fine (but still *maybe*, at best). But then he can *trade* the #19 pick, for an early second-round pick… plus another pick (or two, depending on where the additional pick(s) is/are). He’s got, what, six weeks or so to the draft… plenty of time to shop that #19 pick. Most likely, it would come down to draft day… with the pick approaching. Maybe he only gets a 2nd and a 7th for that #19… but the original fakakta logic, he’s still getting the same player at less money, plus an extra pick.

Nope… makes no sense. Either the three-way deal was something that one team (Tampa?) was *trying* to get done, but couldn’t get the other two teams (although more likely, couldn’t get Denver specifically) to go for… or… well, that’s the only reasonable explanation. I get that Josh McDaniels was with Cassel last season and may be comfortable with him, but let’s be serious: Cutler is clearly a better QB than Cassel. Even getting Vrabel wouldn’t be enough to make sense for Denver to go to a lesser QB (and fwiw, Cassel’s a year *older* than Cutler).

My only conclusion is that Belicheck (and the Pats) kicked the tires since the season ended - and the Chiefs were the only ones interested… or more to the point, were the ones who were interested *and* offering the most. Perhaps Belicheck looks at his young LBs (drafted over the past couple of years) and sees ample replacement for an aging Vrabel with a (relatively) big cap hit for 2009 who will be a free agent at the end of next season. And perhaps the Pats wanted/needed to free up cap space *now* in order to go after one (or more) top FAs now. We’ll see what, if anything, the Pats do with their (new found) cap space in the next couple of weeks.

But… if that three-way deal was indeed on the table, what gives? If the Pats don’t take that cap space and, at the very least, extend some other (read: younger) talent on the current roster (Vince Wilfork, I’m looking in your direction), then… what gives?

As I said in the initial post: Bill Belicheck has proven he knows more about football than I do. I gracefully concede that. Given his resume (specifically in New England), he’s clearly earned every benefit of the doubt when it comes to football decisions. I just hope history proves this was the best/right move… at the right time.