Oscar Gamble Society

Matt Kenseth won his second straight race (after winning none in 2008), following his win in the rain-shortened Daytona 500 with a comfortable win in Fontana. A couple more weeks like this and all he’ll need to do is avoid DNFs during the summer to make the Chase. Other observations after week 2:

Toyotas are running strong; partially this just reflects the move of JGR but 5 of the top 15 finishers were Toyotas, versus 4 Chevys, 3 Fords and 3 Dodges. Actually, the three Dodges may be more impresive since none of the Big Four teams drive them, but its still good to see Toyota prospering despite the American manufacturers bringing their traditional MO to NASCAR (i.e. produce an inferior product, then lobby top have the rules changed to handicap the more sucessful competitor). We live in Barry Obama’s America now; merit is for assholes.

Props to Tony Stewart, finishing 8th and being competitive all day. As things stand he will be the last owner-driver in NASCAR history with a credible chance to compete for the Cup. I remain somewhat skeptical of his chances over the long run, but I hope he proves me wrong and shows that you can be competitive outside the Big Four.

Speaking of which, Joey Logano did indeed do better than in Daytona, moving up 8 notches from his staring position to finish 26th. In truth, it was a mediocre performance - he only moved up by the number of cars that failed to finish the race - but for an 18 year old in his second start, mediocrity seems promising.

On to Las Vegas.

Bummer to see the race end due to rain, but I was happy to see Matt Kenseth win. I generally don’t root for Roush teams - with five well-funded teams on the track rooting for Roush feels like rooting for Microsoft - but since NASCAR reconfigured its entire championship structure following Kenseth’s 2003 Championship (a barely veiled way of suggesting he was somehow not a legitimate champion) - I view Kenseth victories as sticking it to The Man.

And even though I like Joe Gibbs and like to see Toyota do well since its the only non-welfare case in the sport, I couldn’t help but be gratified by Kyle Busch getting wrecked. But I was still sorry to see the same fate befall the rest of Gibbs’ teams, especially Logano, though I suspect he’ll do better in Fontana next week.

ESPN Classic showed the 1979 Daytona 500 which I watchd this evening in lieu of the last third of this year’s race. What a difference - stock cars that actually resemble their street car namesakes, pit crews in short sleeves and no safety gear, and a mix of legends toward the end of their careers - Richard Petty, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, the Allisons - and the young rookies and up-and-comers - Dale Earnhardt, Darrell Waltrip, Ricky Rudd. And they showed the post-race fisticuffs between Yarborough and the Allisons, which was nice. Kyle Petty was 18 at the time and had just won a race at Daytona the following week, interesting to see given the elimination of his team this year (and his recent bitter comments about the fate of Petty Enterprises).

Daytona is always fun but as a restrictor plate race I think it told us far less than Fontana will next week about the ability of new teams, from Stewart-Haas to Tommy Baldwin, to compete with the Big Four for wins, berths in the Chase, and ultimately the Cup.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup series kicks off Sunday with the Daytona 500. This season promises to be interesting for a number of reasons, many economic.

There is Tony Stewart’s attempt to make a go as a driver-owner along with teammate Ryan Newman. Newman likely won’t do any worse than he fared with the Penske team, but Stewart is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing, one of the “Big Four” teams that have monopolized the Winston/Nextel/Sprint Cup for the past two decades.

There is the debut of 18-year-old phenom Joey Logano, taking over the #20 Home Depot Toyota from Stewart. Hopefully he will not be judged a failure if he fails to establish himself as the next Richard Petty in his rookie season, but given the hype surrounding him one can’t be certain.

Then there is the impact of the economy, with two of the auto manufacturers on the brink of bankruptcy and most industries slashing the marketing budgets that ultimately fund racing teams. Many teams have been left without sponsors and experienced drivers without rides. In two years, the Sprint Cup has come full circle - in 2007 there were so many well funded teams that there were not enough spots to go around, and every weekend several would fail to qualify and go home empty-handed; in 2009, there are not enough established, well-funded teams to fill out the field for most races. This seems likely to further the bifurcation of NASCAR into the large four-car teamsn, and everyone else. However, it is just possible that the current environment will allow one or two of the smaller teams to achieve much greater success than has been possible in recent years, and be positioned for a sort of relegation into the top tier, as JGR did during the 1990s.

Interesting article in the Times of London in which former Formula 1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya compares NASCAR to Formula 1.

One of the hardy perennials in discussions about NASCAR’s future seems to be the question of whether the sport should award franchises to teams, instead of allowing anyone to show up with a qualified car and driver and compete for a spot in each race.

It seems to me that the current rule that guarantees starting spots in each race to the top 35 drivers goes a long way toward creating certainty for teams and sponsors regarding their investments. So what the franchise issue is really about is a transfer of wealth from NASCAR to current team owners by giving team owners perpetual licenses for something they must currently win through competition. The France family would essentially be making equity partners of the people who currently own cars, and whether that would help the sport or not, I don’t see any incentive for the France family to do it.

It is striking that the person calling most vociferously for a franchise in today’s article is Richard Petty, whose Petty Enterprises seems to have fallen on hard times. Kyle Petty has fallen out of the top 35 and shows little evidence of an ability to compete for a starting slot on a weekly basis. So Petty’s call for a franchise seems like a whine for NASCAR to give him something he can no longer earn. Sorry King, but here at the OSG we call ‘em like we see ‘em.

It’s almost as though the *last* place you want to be when the white flag comes down to signal the final lap is in the lead. Unless you happen to have teammates behind you, you’re doomed. Tony Stewart had a decent lead, but with Penske teammates Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch behind him, it was a weak position. By the time he could move down to the inside lane in front of his teammate Kyle Busch, the elder Busch had bump-drafted Newman into an insurmountable lead.

Interestingly given all the attention paid to the new Toyota engines was the fact that six of the top eight cars - all but the Stewart and Busch Toyotas - were Dodges. It does seem clear that it is only a matter of time, and likely not too much of it, before Toyota earns its first Sprint Cup victory, though.

It was nice to see Junior finish in the top ten, benefiting from having top-flight equipment though suffering from a paucity of teammates after wrecks claimed Al Qaeda operative Jeff Gordon, and Gordon’s mini-me, Jimmy Johnson. Junior and Stewart were a strong drafting team when they hooked up though. Junior also had some funny ads for his new sponsor, Amp.
It was a shame, if not surprising, to see Dale Jarrett post a weak finish in his final Daytona 500 though. And sentimental favorite Mark Martin of course suffered a cut tire, though one expects he’ll be back next year.

Overall, a good start to the season. On to Fontana.

Today is the 50th running of the Daytona 500. Lots of interesting stories going into the race:

- After a hideous debut last year, the Toyota teams are now outfitted with more horsepower than anyone else on the track. Will Waltrip and Red Bull rise to the level of Toyota newcomer Joe Gibbs Racing, or vice versa?

- How will the new open wheel drivers fare? Juan Pablo had a respectable rookie season in 2007 - can he follow in Tony Stewart’s footsteps and emerge as a competitor for the Cup? And how will Indy 500 winners Sam Hornish Jr. and Dario Franchitti fare in their rookie NASCAR seasons?

- What will Junior do with Hendrick-quality equipment? In the other races this past week he posted 2 wins and 1 third-place finish (the highest ranked non-Toyota in the Nationwide race). Based on this week he looks ready to finally win the Cup.

- And let’s give a shout-out to the veterans who didn’t make the field for this year’s race - Bill Elliott, Sterling Marlin and Ken Schrader will all be watching the race this year. And former champion Dale Jarrett will be racing in his final Daytona 500.

It will also be interesting to see whether the sport’s ratings rebound this year, or decline further. It seems Brian France has recognized that he changed the sport too much, pursuing mainstream and corporate fans and money in a way that alienated some of the sport’s most fervent longtime fans. Probably the 30% decline in International Speedway Corp. stock from its peak in 2005 caught his attention. Ouch.

The Patriots “cheating” has gotten a lot of press this week here in the States.  But I don’t think they’ll be getting fined $100 million dollars for their misdeeds:

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2007/9/6767.html

And we think Roger Goodell rules with a heavy hand?