Oscar Gamble Society

Curt Schilling officially announced his retirement.  I don’t believe Mike Mussina is officially retired, yet - but he’s on no ML roster and in no ML camp, so unless he makes a mid-season comeback (which I submit is unlikely), he’s done also.  Now since Schilling didn’t play last year (whereas Mussina did, winning 20, if you’ll recall), I believe Schilling will be eligible a year earlier.  Whenver each is officially eligible, is either (or both) of them HOF-worthy?

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Interesting article on the issue, even though the headline writer should be fired.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/03/12/2009-03-12_on_reality_of_arod_aging_the_yankees_are.html

I’ve read separately where Sidney Ponson and Pedro Martinez are (among others, presumably) hoping their WBC appearances may lead to a ML contract for 2009 (and perhaps beyond?).  Now they are on different ends of the pitching spectrum, but I wonder who is more likely to get a ML contract for 2009, coming out of the WBC. (more…)

We just got back from a week in Fort Myers, with the in-laws.  The weather was good enough reason for the trip, but we also took the opportunity to visit the Red Sox spring training facilities in Fort Myers one day.  They weren’t playing a game, just going through a morning workout/practice - pretty cool though… I’d recommend the same to anyone for their favorite teams.  Pretty laid back, some familiar faces, a lot of unfamiliar faces (at this stage in the process).  Best of all for us though, we came out of that day with a story… goes something like this…

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Last year Ichiro hit some big career milestones in categories where NPB and MLB stats are quite comparable, which we noted here, and which the NY Times noted months later (which likely explains why the market value of the NY Times is only slightly higher than that of the OGS).

Specifically, he recorded his 3,000th career hit (his 3,083 would place him 20th behind Dave Winfield if he were credited with his 1,278 NPB hits), and his 500th career steal (if given credit for his 199 NPB steals, his career total of 514 would tie him with Barry Bonds for 32nd all time. He fell just shy of 1,000 career RBIs, landing at 998 (including 529 in Japan).

In 2009, he is likely to record his 1,000th career RBI in early April, and needs 9 home runs to reach 200 in his professional career. He is likely 2 years away from hitting his 100th career triple. If he stays healthy, he should finish the year approaching 3,300 career hits, which would put him 11th all-time just behind Willie Mays (and within 1,000 hits of Pete Rose). Ignoring his NPB performance, in his 9th MLB season he is likely to become the 255th player to reach 2,000 hits, and is a good bet to reach 500 RBIs and 350 steals in MLB.

While he is reaching an age where a significant decline in performance becomes increasingly likely (he’ll turn 35 this year), it seems notable that in stealing 43 bases last year, he was successful in over 90% of his attempts, getting caught just 4 times, half as many as in 2007 (when he made only 2 fewer attempts). Accepting the Jamesian thesis that stolen bases help far less than getting caught stealing hurts, in his mid-30s Ichiro remains among the very few ballplayers who indisputably create value on the basepaths.
Bottom line: In my book, Ichiro is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Not really, but I can’t resist quoting Navin R. Johnson, and even better than finding my name in the phone book is coming home to find the new Baseball Prospectus.

Passing this on from the baseball listserv I’m on (originally posted there by a fella named Patrick Laverty - but I really have nothing to add, as I think he summed it up nicely):

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=516893

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