Dice-K without a loss, but with plenty of walks
Coming into today’s game, Dice-K was second among AL starters with a 2.15 ERA - and nobody had more wins (7-0). What a *great* start, right? Well, yes… and no.
The walks. Is it picking nits? Perhaps. But of the top-40 AL starters, only four have 30 or more walks coming into today’s play, and I’ll include a couple other numbers with the walks (BB/K/hits/ERA/ERA rank): Dice-K (32BB/46K/42hits/2.15ERA/#2), Fausto Carmona (35BB/22K/49hits/2.25ERA/#4), Jon Lester (31BB/42K/55hits/3.41ERA/#18), and Jeremy Bonderman (33BB/30K/49hits/4.76ERA/#37).
And as I write this, Dice-K just picked up win #8 - on a day that he went 5.2 IP, 3R/3ER, 6 hits, 6 BB, 7K. So is Dice-K getting lucky? Sure, he is - but look at Fausto Carmona (4-1, W/L) with a 2.25 ERA on more walks, more hits, and fewer strikeouts. He does have more strikeouts than hits, so that’s good - but add in the walks, look at the old WHIP, and its 1.23… good for #19 in the AL among starters. So coming into today, he’s #2 in ERA, tied for #10 in Ks, and #19 in WHIP - and… not so good with the walks.
Including today’s game, in 6 of 10 starts, he’s had as many (or more) walks as hits allowed. In 2 of 10 starts, he’s had as many (or more) walks as strikeouts. It’s been discussed previously, Dice-K is clearly not pitching to contact. So is that a “bad” thing?
A starting pitcher is supposed to limit the number of runs that he gives up - and clearly his defense plays a role in that (if the pitcher lets them, that is). Only Cliff Lee has done a better job of that in the AL thusfar this season. So maybe the walks shouldn’t be considered that big a deal (given that the hits and runs have been limited, and he is striking guys out)?
Or… its just a matter of time before the walks start killing him.
I guess we’ll just have to see how the rest of the season plays out. To this point, the walks haven’t hurt him - or his team. After today, he’s 8-0 - and the Sox are 10-0 in his starts. Dice-K isn’t a perfect pitcher, but he (and his team) have a perfect record… and ultimately, I suppose that’s what’s most important.
I just wish he wouldn’t walk so many guys. After today, as of now, he leads the league (the *major* leagues) in walks allowed. Surprising for a guy who’s 8-0 and #2 in the AL in ERA, don’t you think?
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Agreed. Surprising.
I haven’t seen him pitch much this year, but my sense is that he’s light years ahead of last year in terms of his propensity to nibble. He knows that he needs to throw strikes, and seems to be trying to do so with more consistency than he did last year - with mixed results. I think he’s only going to get better.
Now, I don’t know if he has #1 stuff, so maybe if he throws more strikes he’ll hit more bats. But it seems like he’s going to be a nice #2. Granted for #1 money, but the Red Sox can afford that luxury.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:17 am
He’s definitely got good stuff, as far as whether its “#1 or #2 stuff”, I dunno. Beckett’s the staff ace, and hopefully will be for a while. Buchholz looks to have “#1 stuff” - but still has to grow into it and learn how to pitch (though with a no-hitter already under his belt, I guess we can say he’s coming along in that dept - and throwing to Varitek can’t hurt his development either). As for “#1 money”, depends how you wanna look at it. Purely on salary, he’s a bargain at $8 mil/yr. Factor in the posting fee, and he averages to $17 mil/yr - but look at the other guys in that neighborhood…. Zito, Zambrano, Pettitte… I’m probably missing a couple. Is Mike Hampton still being paid on that ridiculous contract he was given?
The Sox can afford to “overpay” - but that’s apparently market pricing for good FA pitchers, and I’m not sure I’d trade Dice-K (considering age and ability) for any of the other pitchers in the $17 mil/yr range… give or take. So whether he’s #1 or #2… moot point - just go win games (and he’s doing that).
On a related note, Beckett is 28, Dice-K is 27, Lester is 24, and Buchholz and Masterson are 23. Colon and Schilling are fat and old, but could still be effective in short spurts, at least this year. And 40-yr-old Wakefield is still effective with his knuckleball, and who knows when that’ll end.
Lester and Buchholz already have no-hitters. Beckett and Dice-K have no-hitter stuff. Masterson has made two ML starts, going at least 6 innings both times, only allowing 1 run each time.
It is well.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:18 am
Back to Dice-K and the walks and ERA, posted on that baseball listserv, this interesting tidbit:
“For what it’s worth, in 1959, Sam Jones led the NL
in both ERA and walks allowed. Amos Rusie did it
in 1894, John Clarkson in 1889. Also Sam McDowell,
AL 1965.”
May 30th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, are in the $17 M range. I would take either over Dice-K.