Effective Bullpens — trivia
March 30th, 2007 by Cliffy
In a separate post, Gonzo noted that in 2006, the Mets were 74-4 when leading after six innings. But how does that compare to the rest of MLB? Well, that is the fewest losses and best winning percentage (0.949) in that scenario. But one other team also had only 4 losses when leading after six innings (and with a record of 67-4, was 0.944 in those situations). Name that team.
Let’s take this a little farther…
Which team had the fewest losses (and best winning percentage, as it happens) when leading after *seven* innings?
And finally, two teams had *zero* losses when leading after eight innings. Name those two teams.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:29 am
The Royals and Devil Rays? Just kidding.
Given the source of the trivia question, I’ll go with the Red Sox as one with zero losses after innings.
March 30th, 2007 at 10:46 am
Surprisingly, the Red Sox are not an answer to any of the questions. Fwiw, though, the Devil Rays had the most losses (18) and worst winning percentage (0.695, 41-18) when leading after six innings. The Royals were next worst with 17 losses, and a .738 winning percentage (48-17). The Sox lost 14 games in that situation. In addition to the Devil Rays and Royals, only the Indians (61-16, .792) lost more games in that situation.
After seven innings, the Royals were the worst - 47-12, .797 winning percentage. No other team lost more than ten games in that situation. The Devil Rays “only” lost 8 - going 52-8 (.867) in that situation. Fwiw, the Sox also lost 8 games in that situation, going 69-8 (.895).
After eight innings, the Royals were again the worst - 52-7, .881 winning percentage. Three other teams also lost seven games in that situation: Marlins, 72-7 (.911); Indians, 70-7 (.909); and Giants, 61-7 (.897). The Red Sox were 73-5, .936 - just behind the Astros, 74-5 (.937) and just ahead of the Padres, 69-5 (.932).
Now, regarding the questions above, I’ll give you a hint: One team is the same for each of the sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-inning answers (i.e. not the Mets, already named). As for the other eighth-inning answer team, they are in the AL East.
March 30th, 2007 at 11:15 am
The AL East team has to be the Yankees, with superhuman Rivera closing games for them - duh!
March 30th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Um… yeah… well… you’re wrong. Guess again.
As for the other team, that is #1 (or at least tied for #1) in all three categories, here’s the hint: It’s a midwest team.
March 30th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Cardinals? White Sox?
March 31st, 2007 at 5:38 am
Nope.
Another hint: It’s a midwest team whose proper name (i.e. St. Louis or Chicago) begins with the letter “M”.
And I still don’t have a guess on the AL East team that’s not the Red Sox or Yankees, who had zero losses when leading after 8 innings.
March 31st, 2007 at 10:12 am
Minnesota, Toronto
March 31st, 2007 at 7:38 pm
You are correct, sir.
Fewest losses when leading after six innings - Mets, 74-4 (.949); Twins, 67-4 (.944); Angels, 72-5 (.935); and Cubs, 54-6 (.900). Every other team had 7 or more losses in that situation. The Devil Rays were the worst, 41-18 (.695). Of interest to us: Reds, 60-7 (.896); Yankees, 73-8 (.901); Astros, 63-11 (.851); Brewers, 51-11 (.823); Red Sox, 68-14 (.829); and Indians, 61-16 (.792).
Fewest losses when leading after seven innings - Twins, 72-1 (.986); Angels, 70-2 (.972); Orioles, 56-3 (.949); White Sox, 74-4 (.949); and Blue Jays, 76-4 (.950). Every other team had five or more losses in that situation. The Royals were the worst at 47-12 (.797). No other team had more than 10 losses. Of interest to us: Mets, 76-5 (.938); Yankees, 84-5 (.944); Reds, 60-7 (.896); Astros, 68-7 (.907); Red Sox, 68-8 (.895); Indians, 66-9 (.880); and Brewers, 54-10 (.844). The only team with a worse winning percentage in this situation was the Royals.
Fewest losses when leading after eight innings - Twins, 83-0 (1.000); Blue Jays, 80-0 (1.000); Angels, 77-1 (.987); and Braves, 68-1 (.986). Every other team had two or more losses in that situation. The worst were Marlins, 72-7 (.911); Indians, 70-7 (.909); Giants, 61-7 (.897); and Royals, 52-7 (.881). Of interest to us: Reds, 65-2 (.970); Mets, 84-4 (.955); Yankees, 85-5 (.944); Astros, 74-5 (.937); Red Sox, 73-5 (.936); and Brewers, 62-6 (.912).
So in conclusion, the Twins bullpen was arguably the best in baseball last year - certainly in terms of protecting a lead (regardless of what inning they were given the lead). And… uber-GM Doug Melvin, Einhorn’s “assembler of bullpens”, wasn’t able to assemble a bullpen as effective as Theo Epstein, who we’re told has no clue how to assemble a bullpen. Interesting.
March 31st, 2007 at 9:30 pm
right… i suppose the record after 8 innings is the best way to judge how the GM performed while assembling the bullpen. Let’s forget about the amount of money spent on the bullpen or any other statistical measure. Also, forget about how many times the offense bails out the bullpen after they have blown a lead late.
Listen… i don’t know the exact numbers from last year, but the Brewers bullpen was bad. Can you fault the GM for that? sure, but I would argue that there were some circumstances outside of Melvin’s control. Without looking, I would guess that all 6 of the Brewers losses came between May 15th and July 31st when Turnbow completely fell apart and blew several saves. While Turnbow was phenomenal in 2005 and the first half of ‘06, he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league in the second half of last year. Does reflect on Melvin? I mean Melvin acquired Turnbow from the scrap heap, and the team turned him into an all star closer. Just like he had done with Dan Kolb a couple years before. Matt Wise has been an excellent pickup, and pitched well while healthy.
The Brewer’s bullpen last year was awful, all the way around. Turnbow blew up, as mentioned, Wise was hurt. Dan Kolb has no business in the major leagues any more. Shouse ( another reliever that was picked up for nothing) is an excellent LOOGY, but he was able to get righties out early in his Brewer tenure, and Yost used him as a regular reliever instead of a LOOGY too much last year. The team used a record 27 pitchers last year, and many of them had no business playing in the majors. I mean Joel Winkelsas had to quit his job as a garbage man to pitch for the Brewers. Justin Lehr, Chris Mabeus, Mike Adams, Chris Spurling, and Chris Demaria are all AAAA pitchers at best. And don’t get me started on Geremi Gonzalez. What, did he think by changing the spelling of his first name, that everyone would forget how much he sucked as a pitcher?
So, yeah, Doug Melvin did not have a great year in regards to the bullpen, but the team this year should be much improved.
First, the rotation is set with Bush, Sheets, Capuano, Vargas, and Suppan. This allows Villanueva to move to the bullpen. Combine him with Wise, Turnbow, Shouse, Aquino, Dessens, and Coco Cordero, and I like my chances on the team improving. In addition the team has some alternatives in the minors who are major league calibur pitchers. There has never been a time when a player the quality of Yovanni Gallardo or Jose Capellan couldn’t make the Brewers out of spring training
April 1st, 2007 at 7:21 am
Actually, it’s the bullpen’s (horrible) record with lead after six innings, *and* a lead after seven innings, *and* a lead after eight innings. It’s just amusing to me that you regale us with Melvin’s otherworldly ability to build an effective bullpen, and moron Theo was somehow able to assemble a better one. Um, yeah, I guess the several million dollars he gave Julian Tavarez was the difference. Okay, fine. Course, the Twins are in the same boat as the Brewers, and Terry Ryan was *actually* able to assemble a very effective bullpen… but I guess he just got lucky.
Actually, I read locally where a bunch of “informed folks” nationally are indeed picking the Brewers to win their division. It’s about freakin’ time. Have the Brewers been to the playoffs since the 1982 WS?