Evan Longoria said “Deal!” - smart move
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080418/ap_on_sp_ba_ne/bba_rays_longoria_2
Longoria has sold his potential for $17.5 million guaranteed. As long as he’s not a complete moron with his paychecks, he’s set himself up for a very comfortable life - even if he goes the Baldelli route (injury), or the Brien Taylor route (bust). If he becomes the star many predict, or close to it, then he gets another $27 million - and will still have an opportunity for a FA contract at age 31.
I get the ego part of wanting make as much money as you can - but how much better will his quality of life be if he gets $90 million vs. $45 million? Seriously. Conversely, how much better will his quality of life be if he gets $17.5 million vs. $390k (2008 MLB minimum, assuming he even played a full year)?
Previously I saw discussion regarding Jonathon Papelbon possibly discussing a deal to buy out his arb years, and he said he wanted to wait. Now, why would a young pitcher *not* trade in arb (and even a couple FA years, depending on the offer) for guaranteed money *now*? I just don’t get that.
Young players, especially young pitchers, that are offered tens of millions of dollars guaranteed should jump at that chance, IMHO… every time.
Cody loves the TV Show “Deal or No Deal”. He’s a kid, so regardless of the offer, he yells “No deal!” - reasoning that X dollar amount “is still available”. Not surprisingly I suppose, the contestants usually take the same approach. Countless times I’ve seen contestants offered over $200k - but they see that $1 million or $750k still on the board, and they want more. For most of us, a check for $200k (even after Uncle Sam gets his cut) would make a big difference. Would $750k or a million help more? Relatively speaking, yes. But for example, this guy is on there and explains that he’s working four jobs to pay the bills for he and his fiance. He gets offered around $200k and says “no deal”. Wow. I believe he ended up walking with some money (less than the $200k he could’ve gotten - so often the case), so that’s good - but why the risk? When there’s the $750k or $1 million left, there’s invariably $1 and/or $5 left. I explain to my 9-yr-old, “The difference between $5 and $200k means a lot more than the difference between $200k and $1 million, given the diminishing returns of wealth relative to the impact on quality of life.” Or put another way, the age old axiom: A bird in hand is better than two in the bush. Now this is lost on him, and naturally on most adult contestants… the human condition, I suppose.
Perhaps not exactly analagous, given the relative dollar amounts involved - but given the *tens of millions* of dollars guaranteed for young 20-somethings… I just don’t get it when someone like Papelbon basically says, “Nah… I want to risk injury/ineffectiveness so I can got *more* tens of millions.” Conversely, when someone like Troy Tulowitski (6 yr/$31 million) or Longoria takes the guaranteed money as early as possible, theoretically realizing “how much better can you eat”, I’m glad for them. Smart move.
Clearly a smart move by the Rays (for a change) - but an even smarter move by the player, in my mind. Actually… a no-brainer for both sides, all things considered - so I struggle to understand why we don’t see *more* of this.
One last thought: Nomah famously turned down a 4yr/$60 million extension to avoid pending FA in the spring of 2004, and now he’ll never come close to recovering that (due to subsequent injury/ineffectiveness) - but a decade ago, he traded arb years (and maybe FA years, I forget now) for $30 million guaranteed. A great deal for both sides. My point: Sure, he missed out on $60 million - but he still earned tens of millions to that point, so apart from a bruised ego, how much did it negatively impact his quality of life? I submit… not at all.
April 18th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
I agree; given the opportunity to establish financial security for life, it is irrational for a young athlete to risk it for an even larger payday. Trading away a few years’ worth of upside potential to insure you’ll never have to worry about how to take care of your family is smart, and teams that take advantage of that fact - by locking up players at potentially well-below-market salaries - are smart, too. Everybody wins.
April 20th, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Fehr and company must be pissed - the union got the rights to arbitration for pre FA players, and Longoria basically pissed all over it.
But as said, $17.5 million is good money if you can get it…
April 21st, 2008 at 9:23 am
On the contrary, its the leverage of arbitration that allowed Longoria to get $17.5 million after six *games* in the majors. I submit that Fehr and company are ecstatic. Before arbitration (and free agency), what possible impetus would a team have to give a guy that kind of money so soon?
And Longoria’s not the first, even on the Rays - in 2005, the Rays bought out arb years (and potentially some FA years) for Rocco Baldelli with a six-year deal that could potentially be worth up to $32 million. It includes club options for 2009, 10, and 11 - which given Baldelli’s injuries are unlikely to be picked up… but that’s the point. Would Baldelli have made over $5 million from 2006-08 on arbitration? Nope. He didn’t play in 2005, so how much would he have gotten for 2006 without this long-term deal? In 2006, he did play (well) in 92 games - then only 35 last year. He starts this season on the 60-day DL, and I’m not sure he’ll even play 35 games by year-end. Good for him, he leveraged his arb-eligible years and potential ability for guaranteed money, just in case something derailed his career… and sadly (at least temprorarily) something has. The union and the player should be elated that the current system allowed him to get paid despite a lack of career fulfillment.
Back to Longoria, if he gets hurt tomorrow, he’s got $17.5 million. If he reaches his potential, he gets $44 million and is a (highly sought after) FA at age 31. What exactly is there to be pissed about?
The union has created an environment where the player has a number of freedoms - the freedom of free agency after six years to play wherever they want for however much they want (some players do actually turn down more money one place to play somewhere else), and with the arbitration schedule they get the opportunity to get (oftentimes large) raises even though the team controls their rights… so some guys are free to elect to trade some (or all) of that for guaranteed money now i.e. they get paid even if they don’t play another game after signing the deal. What could be better?