Grading the Moneyball Draft
As the years pass it becomes possible to evaluate Billy Beane’s 2002 draft decisions described by Michael Lewis in Moneyball. The obvious place to start is with the first round - Beane lusted after Ohio State’s Nick Swisher and mocked the conventional wisdom that Prince Fielder, fresh out of high school, was a great prize.
In the event, Milwaukee took Fielder with the 7th pick, and Oakland took Swisher with the 16th pick. Swisher made it to the parent club a year sooner (2005 vs 2006 for Fielder), which can be chalked up to the difference in age - Swisher was 24 when he became a full time player while Fielder was just 22.
Circumstances aside, what strikes me is how similar they are at this admittedly early stage in their careers. The both have a career OPS+ of 118 and both strike out in around a quarter of their at-bats. They also had essentially the same comp, at least last year - with a 2006 salary of $335K Swisher out-earned Fielder by all of $5500. Early in 2007, both players have stepped it up, Swisher posting an OPS+ of 164 compared to Fielder at 156. Swisher seems more versatile in the field - he has played all three outfield positions in addition to 1B and DH, where Fielder has spent his entire career to date.
Oakland seems pretty happy with the way things turned out, having just signed Swisher to a 5-year, $26.75 million deal. Of course, if he continues to develop the way he has been, he will be grossly underpaid over the course of the deal, but establishing financial security for life (or until one develops a debilitating cocaine addiction) takes a lots of risk off the table for Swisher as well.
Financially, I guess you could say Oakland did a bit better since it cost them $1.8 million to sign Swisher in 2002, versus the $2.4 million Milwaukee paid Fielder, though half of that differential disappears this year, during which Swisher makes $700K while Fielder will have to muddle along on a miserly $415K.
Anyway, my question is this - so far, how did Beane do on his Swisher-over-Fielder call?
May 18th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Even if Fielder gets by Milwaukee at #7, I don’t see him falling all the way to Oakland at #16 i.e. it’s not really a case of Beane having a choice of Swisher or Fielder at #16. Now, given that (at least to this point), he got as good a player at #16 as the Brewers did at #7 - and as you’ve noted, being selected lower in the draft meant he cost less initially, I’d say Beane (and his scouts) did a very good job in evaluating Swisher’s potential.
Given that they got him on a team-friendly contract, especially if he progresses as he appears he should, I’d say Beane did very, very well in this case. It’ll be interesting to see (a) how Swisher does progress, and (b) when - and for how much - Fielder signs with the Brewers (assuming they don’t let him get away cuz he gets “too expensive”).
Finally, I doubt the Brewers are in any way upset with *their* choice at #7. And as you note, I doubt Swisher is upset (at least for now) that he *might* be “underpaid” in a couple years, given that if he never signs another ML contract and is not a complete freakin’ idiot, he’s set him and his family up for life.
In conclusion, seems like everyone you’ve listed has “won” and should be happy - assuming that its a mutual decision on the part of Fielder and the Brewers not to do a Swisher-type deal at this point.
May 21st, 2007 at 5:34 pm
First, the Brewers certainly wouldn’t trade Fielder for Swisher.
Second, while it is admirable that Swisher is able to play 2 positions, that doesn’t really mean he is good at either of them. He is also a career .250 hitter. While I understand that OPS is a more meaningful stat that AVE, there is still flaws with OPS or OPS+. While Swisher walks a lot upping his OBP total, he doesn’t get that many hits, which severly drops his RBI total. I don’t think there is any question that Fielder has far more upside than Swisher. Although they have begun their careers with similar statlines, it is far more likely that Fielder will have the better career.
Third, I think Swisher is a fine player and the A’s did an excellent job in locking him up long term. The Brewers are going to have issues with Fielder. His agent is the devil, and he is already upset with his salary from this year. While he recieved a significant raise from last year, and is paid more than the top 3 rookies from last year (Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Ryan Zimmerman, Papelbon) and far more than the top 2nd year guys from last year, he is upset because he isn’t making much more than the minimum. They raised the minimum from 335K to 380K, so he was guarenteed a 45K raise anyway.