July 30th, 2007 by Tank
Ichiro just became the third-fastest players to reach 1,500 hits, doing so in his 1,060th game. Number of games is an imprecise measure - Ichiro gets more at-bats than most - but still, doing anything faster than Ty Cobb is pretty impressive.
In this, his seventh season in the US, we can probably start to make some valid assessments of his career; it seems clear that his first season in the US was his best, and at age 33 he is probably within a few years of a material diminution of his skills beginning. He has consistently been among the league leaders in batting average, hits, runs, stolen bases, triples, intentional walks, and at-bats per strikeout. He has been a deserving all-star in each of his seven seasons here.
In short, it seems to me that Ichiro is very likely to become the first Japanese player elected to Cooperstown. Comments?
This entry was posted
on Monday, July 30th, 2007 at 1:06 pm and is filed under Sports, Baseball.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 29th, 2007 by Tank
Ichiro just became the third-fastest players to reach 1,500 hits, doing so in his 1,060th game. Number of games is an imprecise measure - Ichiro gets more at-bats than most - but still, doing anything faster than Ty Cobb is pretty impressive.
In this, his seventh season in the US, we can probably start to make some valid assessments of his career; it seems clear that his first season in the US was his best, and at age 33 he is probably within a few years of a material diminution of his skills beginning. He has consistently been among the league leaders in batting average, hits, runs, stolen bases, triples, intentional walks, and at-bats per strikeout. He has been a deserving all-star in each of his seven seasons here.
In short, it seems to me that Ichiro is very likely to become the first Japanese player elected to Cooperstown. Comments?
This entry was posted
on Sunday, July 29th, 2007 at 11:26 pm and is filed under Sports, Baseball.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 30th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
I will post this in anticipation of Cliffy managing to post the comment to which he alluded in his email:
I’m not sure Ichiro needs to accumulate “traditional” levels of cumulative stats to justify election to the HOF. Let’s compare him to another Hall-of-Famer with a relatively brief career:
Ichiro career stats: 1 MVP, 1 ROY, 7-time AS; GAMES 1,060/BA .332/OBP .378/SLG .437/OPS+ 120/HR 66/RBI 402/HITS 1,500/RUNS 745/SB 264
Player “X” career stats: 1 MVP, 1 ROY, 6-time AS; GAMES 1,382/BA .311/OBP .409/SLG .474/OPS+ 132/HR 137/RBI 734/HITS 1,518/RUNS 947/SB 197
Each won Rookie-of-the-Year honors and one MVP award. Ichiro clearly has less power, but is the superior contact hitter and a significantly greater threat on the basepaths, with nearly twice as many steals per game.
July 30th, 2007 at 1:36 pm
I wouldn’t say “very likely” quite yet - but he certainly bears watching. Put it this way, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up in Cooperstown.
As you note, he’s been very good for the past seven years - his first seven years in MLB. In addition to earning ASG berths every single year, he’s earned Gold Gloves each year - and barring catastrophe, will earn his seventh straight after this season. In fact, I’m wondering why it took so long to get him over to CF - given his speed *and* his arm. I mean - Mike Cameron is a nice defensive CF and all… but the Mariners would’ve clearly been better off with Ichiro in CF and Cameron patroling RF, fwiw.
Anyhow, it’ll be interesting to see what - if any - credence is given to his Japanese League numbers by BBWAA. It is a professional league and Cooperstown is the Baseball (as opposed to MLB) HOF. That said, me thinks he’ll need to do his work stateside to get in. So in addition to the ASGs and GGs, and the ROY and MVP (both in Year 1), let’s look at some more of the numbers:
In addition to the 1501 hits in 1060 games that Tank cites, he’s got 66 HR, 402 RBI, 745 RS, 264 SB (and 60 CS - an 81.4% success rate), and 332/378/437–815 OPS (120 OPS+). He’s currently 13th on the Active SB list - and one interesting nugget, he’s got 109 intentional walks, good for 15th on the Active list. Initially, you might think someone with his speed would be kept off the basepaths, even with 1B open (i.e. guy on second to prevent SB option) - but its a testament to his hitting ability that teams will put him on first, guaranteed to get the extra base on any hit as long as the guy in front of him doesn’t slow him down… rather than let him hit to potentially drive in the runs himself.
All that said, his 120 OPS+ concerns me. Look at some of the names of the guys with career OPS+ of 120: Harold Baines, Jose Cruz, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Greenwell, Johnny Grubb (always loved that name), Shane Mack, Paul O’Neill, Moose Skowron… among many others. Some nice players there who had nice careers, but none (including Baines, btw) who deserve to get into Cooperstown without a paid ticket.
I understand he’s not a slugging guy, I get that - but his career 378 OBP, while nice on its face, has him tied on the Career Active list with Jorge Posada and Adum Dunn (not exactly speed-burner, prototypical OBP types). I’m not going to go so far as to say “he’s just a singles guy” - but if his slugging percentage is going to be so low, I’d like to see him a lot closer to a 400 OBP (i.e. Jeter’s not exactly a “slugger”, although he does get his share of extra-base hits… and he supplements that with a career 389 OBP. Heck, JD Drew has a career 389 OBP… not that you’d know that from his play this year, but I digress.)
And perhaps related to his OPS+ concern, look at his batting comps: Ralph Garr? Bake McBride? Hey, I love Bake McBride’s and all - great name - but when I think Bake McBride I think “2nd-best ‘fro in ML history after Oscar”, I don’t think “belongs in HOF”. Now the similarity scores are only in the low 900s, which may speak to something in Ichiro’s favor: We’ve never really seen someone like him. Oh, we’ve seen good defensive players with speed… but he’s a *terrific* defensive player with *excellent* speed. Is there *anyone* faster than him, from home to 1B?
But does that make him HOF-worthy? In itself, no. He either (a) has to get some magical counting stats (like 3,000 hits, or at least very, very close) and/or (b) had to improve the rate stats, most notably OPS (or specifically OPS+).
In conclusion, given that ASG appearances and GG awards are often given on past reputation as much as current performance, I’d expect Ichiro to get well into double digits on both fronts. Although speed is the first thing that seems to go for aging ballplayers, Ichiro is so fast that he might lose a step and few of us would even notice. It wouldn’t hurt for him to have a couple top-5 MVP finishes… winning another would be great, but just getting up there in the voting a couple years would be very good. Ultimately, he’s not going to get there on rate stats - it’ll need to be counting stats. As such 2500 hits seems to be a minimum number required - and at that, it’ll take a lot of squinting to put him in. But if he can somehow maintain something close to the pace and/or hang around long enough to get the magical 3,000 hits, he’s in… no question. If he ends up between 2500 and 3000 hits, well… then the questions are twofold: (1) How close did he get to 3,000? (2) And is the rest of the resume enough to make up the difference?
I could see it going either way - but gun to my head… I think he does what he has to in order to retire with a HOF career. Regardless, it’ll be a blast watching him in that pursuit. What an exciting player.
July 30th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Okay, responding to Tank’s comment… I initially thought Kirby Puckett, as he’s generally trotted out by those trying to find an existing “short-career” HOFer to whom they can compare their current player in an effort to prove Current Player’s HOF worthiness. But those numbers don’t look like Puckett’s, as the SB seem high and the power numbers seem low.
I couldn’t think of another non-pitcher HOFer with a short career, and specifically with a ROY and an MVP - so I cheated. Tank, you must admit that Jackie Robinson got into the HOF as much for breaking the color barrier as he did for his performance on the field. Don’t misunderstand me, Jackie Robinson is clearly deserving of his HOF status - no question. However, if he wasn’t “Jackie Robinson” and he put together that career, I’m not sure he’d be in… my only point. He may have fallen just short in induction, given the shortness of the career.
Another, albeit related, issue is that Jackie was potentially denied earlier entry into MLB due to the color barrier - while no such unseemly obstacle prevented Ichiro from coming here. Yes - I understand the Japanese Leagues and the need to wait until FA, or else ask/hope to get posted rather than wait that long (usually early 30s)… but there was nothing specifically preventing Ichiro from coming to America to *start* his pro career, AFAIK.
Finally, another big difference is the OPS+…. big, big difference between a career 132 OPS+ and a career 120 OPS+. I listed some of the other players tied for #322 all-time with Ichiro at 120 OPS+. Now for comparison’s sake, some of the guys tied with Jackie at #127 all-time at 132 OPS+: Fred Clarke, Tony Gwynn, Joe Morgan, Al Simmons, and Billy Williams… all HOFers. Rocky Colavito and Rafael Palmeiro are among the non-HOFers at career 132 OPS+. As I said, big difference.
Ichiro has a lot of work yet to do to gain induction into the HOF with a career 120 OPS+ (which is not likely to rise signficantly over the *second* half of his career).
July 30th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
I agree with your general point, as there are several guys who really don’t deserve their plaques, but I think we both agree that Robinson is deserving.
BUT
In the rule book, right after “No crying in baseball” is “No affirmative action in baseball.” I’m sure it isn’t your intent, but what you are really saying here is that Jackie Robinson doesn’t belong in the HOF as a player, only as a *black* player who made social contributions to the sport. Either his on-field performance as a player earned him entry regardless of the color of his skin, or it didn’t but we hold black players to lower standards. I would argue the former.
AND
Are you saying performance in NPB is more or less worthy than the Negro Leagues?
July 30th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
I’m saying that purely as a player, his candidacy is borderline at best - and the fact is that we cannot (and should not) ignore his social contributions, which clearly put him well over the line and deservedly in. I also think the Kirby Puckett Effect applies (much earlier obviously) in this way: He gets a bit of a pass for a “short career” due to circumstances beyond his control, and we really like him (albeit for reasons different than Kirby)… unlike, say, Albert Belle (who on paper is far more deserving than either Kirby or Jackie, but we don’t like him and he’s seemingly made nothing but un-social contributions, so he’s not invited to the dance). If Albert Belle was able to play another six or more years, and continue a reasonable career trajectory given his age and presumably normal health, he’d be in the HOF - but his career is seen as “too short”. Jackie (and Kirby) have (obviously different) intangibles that allowed voters to give them the extra boost needed to look past the “short career” issue.
Put yet another way, Jackie (nor Kirby or Albert) had the equivalent of a Koufax-type career (as a non-pitcher) that would have you put them in on their merits *despite* the shortness of their careers (due to injury or other).
And I guess that yes, from that era, we “hold black players to lower standards” - in the sense that if we focus solely on their MLB numbers, they will appear to be less deserving. But they were not (and should not be) analyzed in a vacuum, as the overt actions of MLB in that time period clearly need to be considered.
As for comparing NPB to Negro Leagues, without doing an in-depth statistical analysis (which may indeed be impossible given the likely dearth of stats available from the Negro Leagues), my short answer is: I dunno. My guess is that the Negro Leagues were better than NPB - i.e. performance in NPB is less worthy than performance in the Negro Leagues. As I say, though, if someone wants to convince me otherwise, I’m more than happy to listen.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:02 pm
I really don’t like the short career argument; it strikes me as an excuse for recognizing players we like despite what they did NOT accomplish, rather than because of what they did. The only qualifier that strikes me as legitimate, though it is quite subjective, is that of a case like Sandy Koufax, who in a shortened career displayed an almost supernatural level of domination. And so in that case we really aren’t making an allowance for a short career as much as acknowledging the level of greatness he did sustain for six years or so.
Once we start making allowances for exogenous factors that may have prevented players from achieving x, it don’t know where we stop. It wasn’t Josh Gibson’s fault he couldn’t get a job with an MLB team. Neither was it Ted Williams’ fault he lost so many years to war. But then, it wasn’t Tony Conigliaro’s fault that a beanball destroyed his eyesight, or Mark Fidrych’s fault that his shoulder gave out, or Don Mattingly’s fault that his balky back robbed him of power in the second half of his career. It wasn’t Ozzie Canseco’s fault that he wasn’t as good as his twin brother. Come to think of it, it’s not my fault that I’m just not a very good baseball player. At what point does it become OK to pretend somebody accomplished something they did not, in fact, accomplish?
Regarding NPB versus the Negro Leagues, two numbers should put the relative merits in perspective. NPB draws almost all of its talent from the Japanese population - a pool of just under 130 million people. The Negro Leagues drew almost all of their talent from the African-American population - a pool of under 15 million in the mid-twentieth century. It seems to me that one would need to make some rather untoward assumptions about Japanese athletic prowess to justify an argument that the Negro Leagues features a superior level of play.
July 30th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
I’ll go in reverse order - regarding the demographics of the respective populations, that would certainly seem to indicate that at least statistically speaking, one would expect NPB to have an overall higher level of play than Negro Leagues.
The only thing other thing that comes to mind is the potential arguement that, as a group (albeit from a smaller population), the Negro Leagues were somehow more advanced skills-wise than NPB. But we’re not talking about an upstart Chinese League here (with an far larger population to draw from) - as the Japanese Leagues have been existence longer now than the Negro Leagues ever were.
Now, regarding “short careers”, “excuses”, and HOF inductions… I agree - but I’m not talking about what *should* be, I’m talking about what *is*. Personally, I don’t think Kirby Puckett deserves to be in the HOF. Shame what happened to him with his eyesight, but I dont’ think he did enough to get in. However, enough writers disagreed with me and I contend they indeed put him due to the “exogenous factors” factor. I see no other way to defend his selection.
As discussed, I don’t think Jackie Robinson gets in purely for his MLB stats on paper - although his candidacy is more deserving, relatively speaking, than Kirby Puckett’s.
I think Koufax is a great example of a guy who, despite a shortened career, still did enough to get in, period. Look at his stats on paper, and ignore his retirement at age 30 due to injury woes (and any other positive personal feelings you may have for the man)… and he belongs there. Sure, he didn’t get 300 wins - but his rate stats and individual awards are off the charts… so that overcomes the dearth of some counting stats that we’d expect to see from a HOF pitcher.
In short, given that its human beings who subjectively decided “HOF merit”, as opposed to a complex statistical caculator that is purely objective… we get Jackie and Kirby in, while Albert Belle and Don Mattingly (among so many others) are out. On a somewhat related note, if Jim Rice’s eyesight didn’t betray him such that he was able to play another 3-4 years with just normal decline… I contend he’d would’ve gotten his plaque long ago. But the writers decided not to assign the “Kirby Exception” to Jim Ed.
We can debate the wisdom of such an approach, but we cannot deny its existence.