Oscar Gamble Society

Last year, many Yankee fans were quick to point out that Theo had made a horrible mistake in letting (now 33-yr-old) Johnny Damon go to the Yankees, just to replace him with (now 27-yr-old) Coco Crisp.  I’m inclined to hereby insert some derogatory comment about the pathetic shortsightedness of Yankee fans - except that Red Sox fans (and baseball fans in general) are no different… let’s be honest.

At the time, I thought Theo made the right decision - for the long-term (and potentially for the short-term as well).  If Coco didn’t get hurt early last year, I submit it would’ve been interesting to see what he would’ve done - but injuries are part of the game (and in my mind, part of the concern with Damon).  But, given Damon’s 4yr/$52mil contract from the Yankees, this is how I anticipated the breakdown at the time of the move(s):  Year 1 - Damon better than Coco, Year 2 - wash, Years 3 & 4 - Coco better than Damon.  I felt that the skill sets were similar enough that Coco’s six-year age advantage would (eventually) make him the better option for the ensuing four years.

Given that the Sox would be paying Coco $5 mil/yr (thanks to a contract extension after trading for him), i.e. $8 mil/yr less than Damon, I really liked the move.  Year 1 clearly goes to Damon.  Now, in Year 2, Damon’s been hurt.  Coming into this year (and obviously at the time of the signing), he’d never been on the DL - but Damon (to his credit) plays hard, and has played hurt, and given his advancing age, it didn’t take Nostradamus to predict that it was conceivable that would catch up to Damon.

At this writing, let’s compare 2007 numbers:

Damon - 92G, 335AB/383PA, 5HR, 36RBI, 56R, 19SB/2CS, 242/342/337–679OPS (85 OPS+).  Defensively: CF-44, DH-33, LF-4, 1B-3, RF-1;  CF stats:  FP - 1.000, RFg - 2.59, ZR - .881

Crisp - 95G, 356AB/393PA, 5HR, 42RBI, 57R, 17SB/5CS, 281/335/407–742OPS (94 OPS+).  Defensively:  CF-95;  CF stats:  FP - 1.000, RFg - 3.01, ZR - .903

So let’s first discuss defense.  It’s a debate as to which has the worse arm, but arguably they’re the two worst in baseball.  Both field the position well - but Crisp has far better CF range (3rd in AL, vs. 9th in AL for Damon) and zone rating (3rd in AL, vs. 10 in AL for Damon).  Btw, the RFg and ZR numbers are accurate for Damon but the AL ranks are unofficial - as they’d be based on where Damon “would” be ranked if he’d made the required minimum number of starts in CF.  In short, Crisp gets to far more balls - and makes far more plays… in addition to playing twice as many games in CF.

Now offensively, they’re closer - though neither is looking at any Silver Slugger awards this year.  But in a similar amount of plate appearances, Crisp has produced better.  Early in the season, Sox fans were falling over themselves trying to get Coco out of town (even laughably suggesting that Wily Mo should start in CF over Coco) - though with Coco’s play the last month or so, they’ve backed off those demands.  I recently read where the Yankees were looking for someone to take Damon off their hands - good luck with that (if its anything more than rumor, although it would make sense, wouldn’t it - if they could pull it off?).

So looking more than a couple months past the move(s), and *now* projecting the length of Damon’s Yankee contract, who would you rather have in CF for *your* team - 33-yr-old Johnny or 27-yr-old Coco?

Given their 2007 production, you’d probably hope you had an Option C (i.e. CF that can provide good defense and at least league-average offense) - which then begs the follow-up question:  Who’s contract would you rather be stuck with and/or which contract/player would be easier to move?

Me thinks this Theo Epstein lad sometimes knows what he’s doing.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 30th, 2007 at 12:13 am and is filed under Sports, Baseball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.