Milestones Ichiro Will Reach in 2008
Barring injury, Ichiro will reach the following milestones in his professional career in 2008:
3,000 hits
500 stolen bases
4,000 total bases
1,000 RBIs
He also has an outside shot at reaching 200 home runs, though to do so he would need to equal his MLB-high from 2005 of 15.
Interestingly, home runs is the only one of these statistics where the NPB and MLB totals are clearly apples and oranges. RBIs is also somewhat problematic, though perhaps not as much as home runs. In the other categories, his production in MLB is equal or greater than his production in NPB. In part this is clearly due to the fact that he now accumulates hits, bases and steals over a 162-game season rather than a 130-game season. But that would be a reason to adjust his NPB totals upward, not down as with home runs. Over the course of seven full seasons in NPB, the disparity in games exceeds 200 versus MLB. That’s pretty meaningful for a guy who averages in excess of one hit per game. Overall, I think these stats are probably safely translated on a 1:1 basis. In which case I look at those totals being reached by a guy only turning 34 and say, wow.
February 1st, 2008 at 4:44 pm
I realize you take your role as Main Ichiro Cheerleader very seriously - and I don’t think we should completely discount what Ichiro did in NPB. While its more meaningful that what he might’ve done in AAA, it’s just not as (completely) meaningful as what he’s done in MLB. It’s just not 1:1, my friend.
I’m eager to see where his MLB totals end up (which we discussed previously) - and I’ll then be willing to consider his NPB performance as a contributing factor, but not nearly with the weight that you do.
February 1st, 2008 at 6:31 pm
We all have our crosses to bear in this life, and I accept mine as proving that Ichiro is Ty Cobb without the sociopathic traits. Here is my thinking on the non-power stats, but I would really like to hear thoughts on better ways to think about how non-power NPB performance equates to MLB performance.
In seven full seasons in NPB he averaged 177 hits per season. In seven full seasons in MLB he’s averaged 227 hits per season. I grant that his batting average is 20 points lower here - .333 here versus .353 in NPB. But I don’t really see a basis on which to assert that he was less of a player before 2001 than since, or that somehow the level of performance needed to attain 227 hits in MLB is below that needed to attain 177 in NPB. Versus NPB his BA is 6% lower but he plays 25% more games; it is tough for me to conclude that his career hits and total bases totals were anything but reduced by his playing the first half of his career to-date in Japan.
Steals is a bit more interesting; in NPB he was caught stealing in just 14% of attempts. In MLB he has been caught stealing in 20% of attempts. Part of the increase seems to have been temporary, though, reflecting a learning curve. During his first two MLB seasons he was caught in 25% of attempt, while over the past five seasons he has been caught in 17% of attempts, obviously much closer to his NPB success rate.
February 3rd, 2008 at 8:16 am
I am surprised his stolen base rate over the past 5 years is so high, considering he stole 45 bases in a row between 2006-07. I think the ratio of hits between MLB and NPB is closer than you would think, for an extremely unique hitter like Ichiro. Had Ichiro been American, he would have had a real shot at the all time hit record.