NBA MVP
Much as Andrew Bogut has done this year as measured by both individual statistics and team success, I don’t see him winning the NBA MVP this year. Must be some sort of bias towards the Upper Midwest teams or something - but it seems clear that the four candidates are Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Lebron James, and Chris Paul.
So who should win? And separately perhaps, who *will* win?
ESPN.com has some “experts” give their votes:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=MVP-0708
Not surprisingly, Kobe wins in this straw poll - and the reasons seem clear. First, his individual stats are terrific. Second, his team finished first in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Third, he’s an All-Time Great player who’s never finished higher than 3rd in the MVP voting i.e. he’s “due”. Okay - I get that, but…
My vote (admittedly biased) would go to Kevin Garnett. Still, I concede that Kobe does appear to be the best overall choice for this season, regardless of whether he won none or ten MVPs previously. The numbers:
First, we all get ga-ga over individual stats, so I’ll list each of the four, along with the three main categories: Pts/G (NBA rank in parentheses), Ast/G (rank), and Reb/G (rank).
Kobe - 28.3 Ppg (2), 5.42 Apg (18), 6.3 Rpg (42)
Lebron - 30.0 Ppg (1), 7.20 Apg (9), 7.9 Rpg (27)
Paul - 21.1 Ppg (20), 11.60 Apg (1), 4.0 Rpg (>50)
Garnett - 19.0 Ppg (37), 3.50 Apg (41), 9.3 Rpg (17)
But its important to note that Garnett played the fewest Minutes-per-game of the four (due to his team consistently winning big in the second half, allowing Coach Rivers to rest Garnett during the season - not just at the end - for a playoff run). Let’s take a peek at games played and minutes per game, and look at the three main stats in “per minutes-per-game”:
Kobe - 82 GP, 38.9 Mpg, 0.73 Ppg/Mpg, 0.14 Apg/Mpg , 0.16 Rpg/Mpg
Lebron - 75 GP, 40.4 Mpg, 0.74 Ppg/Mpg, 0.18 Apg/Mpg, 0.20 Rpg/Mpg
Paul - 79 GP, 37.6 Mpg, 0.56 Ppg/Mpg, 0.31 Apg/Mpg, 0.11 Rpg/Mpg
Garnett - 70 GP, 33.1 Mpg, 0.57 Ppg/Mpg, 1.78 Apg/Mpg, 0.28 Rpg/Mpg
One interesting note related to other stats: Not surprisingly, Paul is terrific in Assist/Turnover ratio at 4.62 - but all four (yes even the big man Garnett) are in the top-41 in the league in Assists. More interesting, all four are in the top-18 in the NBA in Steals: Paul, 2.72 per game (1 in NBA); Kobe, 1.84 (9); Lebron, 1.84 (10); and Garnett, 1.40 (18). No surprise, Garnett is the top shot-blocker of the four - but his 1.23 blocks per game only have him at #25 in the NBA. Lebron’s the only other one of the four in the top-50, with 1.08 blocks per game good for #33 in the NBA.
Fair to say that all four are fairly complete players, individual stats skewing somewhat to their positions on the court. Based purely on individual stats, its a two-man race between Kobe and Lebron - with Lebron putting up the better individual stats overall.
But we do need to examine the team stats as well, as a “most valuable player” should help a team win… one would think - especially in a league where only five guys are on the court at a time for each team. This is where Paul and Garnett catch up, and Kobe surpasses Lebron.
The Celtics are the best team in the NBA. They have the best record at 65-16 (.802). They have the best record against the Eastern Conference at 40-11 (0.784), and they have the best record against the Western Conference at 25-5 (0.833). They are #1 in team defense - leading the NBA in both Opponent Pts/G (90.2), and in Opp FG% (41.88). They have won 41 more games than they did last year (an NBA record), and still have a game to win… er, play. They lost a lot of games in ‘06-’07 without Garnett (and Ray Allen, among others) - and their piss-poor defense was a big reason. Kevin Garnett will win Defensive Player of the Year this year (cuz if he doesn’t, there should be a Congressional Hearing) - and his individual defensive contributions, as well as his impact on the team defense, which have led to this historical turnaround in team wins is the biggest positive in his favor for MVP. I regrettably acknowledge, though, that it won’t be enough.
Lebron’s Cavs finished fourth in the conference, second (behind Detroit) in their division - and could very well go out in the first round of the playoffs to Washington. Lebron is a one-man team, which could work in his favor or could work against him, depending on your perspective. But I believe his team’s performance will certainly not help him in the voting - and I see him finishing fourth in the MVP voting even though he does have the best individual numbers.
Chris Paul has been outstanding this year, replacing Steve Nash (or whoever else you had up top) as the Best Point Guard in the NBA. Many have pointed out that his individual numbers are better than Nash’s when he was winning MVPs - and Paul’s Hornets spent much of the year atop the tough Western Conference, ultimately finishing a close second here at year-end. David West (among others) have helped this (underrated) team effort, but make no mistake, a point guard usually leads the team - and for New Orleans, their point guard *clearly* leads this team which had an unexpectedly terrific season. I could see Chris Paul finishing second in the MVP voting as a result, although there’d be no shame in finishing third.
Kobe’s Lakers did better when Pau Gasol was stolen from Memphis - true. But they weren’t exactly horrible before that, especially with a healthy Andrew Bynum. The Lakers late run allowed them to win the Western Conference, and Kobe is the reason. Unlike Lebron, Kobe actually does play terrific defense (although not as well as Garnett, simply cuz nobody played defense as well as Garnett this season). Interestingly, the presence of presumed HoFers Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will work against Kevin Garnett in the voting - even though Jordan had Pippen and Rodman, Bird had Parish and McHale (and Walton for a bit, and DJ, who should be in the HOF… another rant for another day), and Magic had Kareem and Worthy (among an all-around great team). Still, the fact that Kobe led his team to the top of the deeper conference with a younger cast around him… along with the excellent individual performance he delivered for the season… well…
I agree with the ESPN.com panel: Kobe Bryant should be, and will be, the NBA MVP this season.
I’ll be curious to see in what order the other three finish, and an argument could be made for any order IMHO - but I’d have Garnett second, Paul third, and Lebron fourth.
What about you?
April 16th, 2008 at 11:27 am
@Cliffy,
As usual, a great post. Love the use of statistics. I have just one question: Is this the one where they run and have the big orange ball or is it the one where they skate and chase the little hunk of rubber?
BA
P.S. You should read one of the two articles that I posted in Sean’s “Should the NYTimes be paying us” post, because it talks about blogging and the book deals that might result. I think you’d have to go for more timeless articles overall, but some of yours definitely qualify on that front.
April 16th, 2008 at 11:39 am
This is the one with more American players than European players, more body tattoos than speaking accents, more 7-footers than 5-footers, more “ice” on the players than on the playing surface. It may not be your father’s NBA - but it is David Stern’s 2008 National Basketball Association. And the way that the Kevin Garnett, et al, are playing for Doc Rivers Boston Celtics… it’s actually very entertaining. I love Kevin Garnett. I haven’t had this big a man-crush on an athlete since Mosi Tatupu retired from the Patriots almost twenty years ago. (In case I didn’t mention it previously, I did meet Mosi in person at an autograph-signing a few years ago, got the autograph on my Pats mini-helmet and one of his trading cards, got the picture with me and him - and fortunately the picture-taker was close enough that the wood I was sporting did not make the cut - and also got him to write some words of inspiration on a piece of paper for my FF team “Mosi’s Mooses”: Okole Maluna… Samoan for “bottom’s up!”. Solid. I have the picture, the autographed card, and the words of inspiration framed on the wall in my office. And I bring the autographed mini-helmet to my FF draft for good luck every year. But I digress….)
I did read the bloggers-dying article on that post and commented accordingly - perhaps I’ll read the other… while I sit and await the six-figure book deal that will undoubtedly find me without much effort on my part. That *is* how it works, right?
April 16th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
issues.
April 16th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Andrew Bogut is clearly in the top 3….
I vowed not to watch the NBA anymore after Vince Carter’s performance in the playoffs 2 years ago, when he went 1 on 4 for 18 consecutive possessions without passing the ball once against the Raptors…..but I was in a bar and the Bucks game was on against the Celtics some time last week. I watched part of the third quarter when the Celtics were building a 25 point lead. I probably saw 15 possessions, and on every one of them the Celtics either had a WIDE open jump shot or an uncontested layup. It was embarassing to watch…. but I digress.
Without having seen any of the above players play [outside of Garnett’s 10 minutes against the Bucks last week] I would say that Kobe is probably going to win for the mere fact that it is his turn.
April 18th, 2008 at 5:55 am
Like you, and so many others, I found the NBA game to be alternately boring and disgusting - but that’s the beauty of these Celtics: They play the game the way it used to be played, and the way its supposed to be played. They play team defense to force ball movement by the offense (or else get blown out like the Bucks did) - and on offense they move the ball to the open shot (which they actually hit on a frequent-enough basis) or to an open layup. Garnett is terrific at getting the ball in the post and then moving it back out for an open jumper, passing it down low to a wide-open Kendrick Perkins who has done a great job moving into open passing lanes to receive such gifts, or Garnett just takes advantage of the slower and/or smaller schlep trying to guard him… but that’s a last resort, not an *only* resort. The Celtics offense, especially at the end of games, had become “Give the Ball to Paul Pierce, and Clear Out, and Let Him go One-on-One”. Sickening. Its amazing what talented, team-oriented players can still do in the NBA.
Btw, I heard the Spurs have been playing such old school basketball for the last decade… but, really… who’s going to follow the Spurs? I mean… they’re not from the East Coast, so why am I going to care?