Oscar Gamble Society

For those of you out there not paying attention (myself included).  It looks like the Big Red are currently ranked #4 in the country:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=uscho1m&week=poll

That’s pretty cool for a team with 2 losses and 2 ties.

However, over the holidays, it looks they are going to play some pretty big games vs. #3 Colorado College and then either Maine or Princeton in the “Floriday College Classic”.

http://cornellbigred.com/news/2009/12/18/MICE_1218095029.aspx

Btw - is it just me, or does when anyone else read the term “Florida College Classic” they think the Orange Bowl, FSU, The U and assorted thuggery? 

Ivy League college ice hockey never even enters my mind. 

It has been a while since I have posted, but since the Brewers turned into the New York Yankees at the Winter Meetings, I feel it appropriate to comment.

I like the Randy Wolf signing for several reasons.  Let me start be saying that I have a soft spot for pitchers that I drafted as rookies in my Rotisserie League.  That list includes:  Brad Penny, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Affeldt, Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, Kris Benson, Rick Ankiel, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Danny Jackson, Scott Erickson, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, and of course Randy Wolf.  So as you can imagine, I was quite excited about the potential free agent pitching market this year, knowing that the Brewers had an obvious need and cash to spend.

I have heard comparisons to the Jeff Suppan signing when referring to Wolf, and that was an initial thought of mine (soft-tosser, gives up HRs, “pitches to contact”, coming off career year.)  Don’t forget, Jeff Suppan was going through his absolute peak performance of his career when the Brewers signed him:

http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/suppan-is-he-an-ace/

Wolf is 33, Suppan was 32 when they signed him.  Although both are soft tossers, Wolf has the ability to strike out hitters.  His 7K/9 IP is above the major league average, whereas Suppan never has had a ratio higher than 5.3/9 IP.  Wolf is more of a fly ball pitcher, and Hart, Braun and Gomez are far superior defensively to anything the Dodgers or Astros had the last couple of years with Manny Ramirez and Carlos Lee in the outfield.

Did they overpay?  Probably, but I think it is important to understand the overall allocation of resources and the opportunity costs associated with the signing.  Melvin was quoted as saying he was looking for a veteran pitcher that had the ability to eat up innings, but unlike in the past he was more concerned with quality innings.  Wolf has that ability, and while 9M is too much for a #2 starter, had the Brewers not signed Wolf, they would have directed those resources to a far inferior pitcher like Jared Washburn, Doug Davis or Vicente Padilla.

LaTroy Hawkins is another story.  Didn’t Melvin make the same mistake 2 years ago with David Riske?  Were the Brewers unlucky in the fact that Riske got hurt, or was the risk disproportionate with the expected return.  Are David Riske or Latroy Hawkins worth $3 M more than whatever AAA pitcher they could have used in the same role?  Hawkins is 38, and has been a very solid reliever for a long time, but is he better than Josh Butler?  His declining strikeout rate is very concerning, and he BABIP is not sustainable.  Is it appropriate to have $9 M tied up between Coffey, Riske and Hawkins?  Why would you ever give a multiyear contract to a reliever that is not a top of the line closer.

Below is the NL MVP tally for this year; Prince Fielder was a not-too-shabby fourth. Given how much of the book Moneyball was devoted to Billy Beane’s mocking of Prince Fielder, and preference for Nick Swisher, does this constitute another blow to Beane’s reputation for astute judgment, if not to sabrmetrics in general? Swisher was a valuable contributor for the Yankees this year, but hardly worthy of MVP consideration like Teammates Jeter and Teixeira, both of whom were in the top four of the AL balloting IIRC.

The complete ballot: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Ellis Burks, Andre Dawson, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile

Who should get in?

I see several names, a couple new ones and some that have languished for years now. Oh how I wish Mattingly were among them, though I confess its really not even a close call.

Others are an even greater stretch, though, unless there was another David Segui of whom I’m not aware.

My ballot would definitely include votes for Blyleven, Dawson, Larkin, and McGwire, and possibly for Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell.

Just watched the Mayweather - Marquez bout; went the distance but a fairly one-sided fight. Mayweather didn’t seem to have to work that hard to beat Marquez. Hopefully he will fight Manny Pacquiao next. In the past nine months Pacquiao beat Oscar De La Hoya soundly and absolutely destroyed Ricky Hatton. I’ve never even seen boxers in movies get knocked out the way Hatton did. Having just watched this fight, as impressive as Mayweather was, I doubt that either of these guys can beat Pacquiao; he’s simply too quick. So you heard it here first: Pacquiao over Mayweather in six.

A bumper sticker that read:

“Jeter Drinks Wine Coolers”

I have to admit, that’s pretty good.

Pac Man Jones is now a Blue Bomber.

I like the idea of banishing miscreants to Canada. Has a whiff of medievalism about it.

We won’t send you to prison, but instead cast you out, into the snowy blandness of America’s hat.
I’ve watched a few minutes of CFL games on the MSG network in recent weeks but I can’t really get into it. I think part of it is the team names; the Blue Bombers sounds like a Division III college team; the Rough Riders sounds very Brokeback Mountain; and WTF is an “Alouette?”

UPDATE: Looks like Pac Man’s Canadian adventure is over before it began, eh?

At Fox Sports, Jon Paul Morosi asks whether Ichiro has achieved enough to be a lock for the Hall of Fame.

Meanwhile, Jeff Passan at Yahoo looks at Ichiro’s prospects for reaching 4,000 career hits.

Of course, astute followers of baseball could have examined these issues with the OGS back in 2007 and 2008.

At least these guys are in good company in lagging the OGS.

Interesting article by Chris Ballard in SI asks the question.

And it seems like a very good question, the sort of thing a team like Oakland could wring some mileage out of now that the rest of the league has caught up with Mr. Beane on the value of a) walks and b) happening to develop two Cy Young candidates at the same time.

On a related note, the Yankees are even taking walks again; I haven’t seen so many good at-bats by them since the Paul O’Neill/Tino Martinez teams of a decade ago.

Stupid poetic justice.