Pedroia - MVP and/or 20/20 guy?
Driving today, listening to WEEI (Boston sportstalk) and they were fawning over Pedroia - which is fine, he’s having a very nice season. Two things that stuck with me - MVP talk, and his “chase” for a 20/20 season:
1. MVP talk. The fans have picked up some of those M-V-P chants lately (from what I can tell from the crowd shots, with the help of WEEI placards handed out before games). Okay, fine. And local sportstalk will pump up the local guys. Okay, fine. But I got to wondering if Pedroia will actually get votes (and separately, how much he actually deserves votes). They were talking about Ozzie Guillen gushing over Pedroia last weekend - and among many things, Ozzie apparently said that right now, he’d rather pitch to Papi than Pedroia. Is that going to carry any weight nationally? They seemed to think it might… I don’t think so. Ya gotta love Ozzie, he’s a walking soundbite - but everyone knows he pops off. Pedroia is leading the league in hitting, which is nice - and is playing very well defensively (which may or may not translate to GG consideration, for whatever that’s worth). Along with Youkilis, I think it is fair to consider him for the Team MVP designation - but League MVP? I don’t see it. Isn’t it between Quentin and Hamilton… leaning toward Quentin right now? Is there anyone else in the discussion? I haven’t heard of anyone (outside WEEI) talking about Pedroia (or any Red Sox i.e. Youkilis or, until he inevitably got hurt, JD Drew). Should there be anyone else in the discussion? Cliff Lee is the runaway Cy Young, but I don’t see him getting too many MVP votes - fair or not. Maybe I’ve got blinders - but it seems like Quentin and Hamilton… and then a big gap to everyone else.
2. 20/20. Pedroia came up to the majors short and stout… and a tad slow. He’s still short - but he worked out last offseason and is more svelte than before (relatively speaking). I don’t know how much that’s helped improve his speed but he does run the bases well… however much that helps with stolen bases (as opposed to, say, taking the extra base). I decided to look up the current, and possibly/likely to end up, 20/20 guys - some shouldn’t be a surprise, others may be (current HR/SB totals listed):
Sizemore (31/35) [P.S. Factoring in Cliff Lee above, how’s that Bartolo Colon trade looking these days, eh?],
Matt Kemp (16/32),
Hanley Ramirez (28/31),
Ian Kinsler (18/26),
Holliday (24/25),
Brandon Phillips (21/23) [P.P.S. No, really… Mr. Minaya, how’d that Colon trade work out for you?],
Corey Hart (20/22),
Beltran (22/19),
Alfonso Soriano (24/17),
Pedroia (16/17),
ARod (30/16),
Mike Cameron (24/16),
Bobby Abreu (15/16), and
speed demon Lance Berkman (27/16).
I didn’t list guys like Reyes (13/46), Milledge (13/20), or Damon (12/25) - as they seem unlikely to get there, though I suppose it is possible. Similarly I didn’t list guys like David Wright (27/14), Nate McLouth (23/14), Jayson Werth (21/13), Torri Hunter (19/12), Chase Utley (31/12), Ryan Braun (34/11) - as they seem unlikely to get there on the SB side, although I suppose relatively speaking (if they cared), it’d be easier to get a 7-9 SBs in the last couple of weeks than it would be to get 7-9 HRs in the last couple of weeks.
I did list Abreu since he’s close to Pedroia - needing several more in each category… so if Pedroia is “likely”, Abreu’s in the same company.
Anyhoo…. interesting to me to see some of the names listed above. As mentioned, some I expected… some I honestly didn’t.
One final thought: If Dustin Pedroia’s getting MVP votes, how’s Ian Kinsler doing in the voting? He’s right there with Pedroia in the stats Pedroia is “shining” in. Now, Kinsler’s got 18 errors to Pedroia’s 6 - putting Kinlser in Lugo territory. Perhaps Kinsler has better range than Pedroia, but still, three times as many errors… that’s not good. And, yes, yes… Pedroia’s team is doing better than Kinsler’s team and it goes back to the “definition” of MVP, but the point is that if Pedroia’s going to get some national publicity for his season, it seems like Kinsler deserves some as well.
September 5th, 2008 at 7:37 am
AL voting is going to be interesting this year. the top pitcher plays for an awful team in Cleveland….and there are no Yankees or Red sox worth consideration for either award…and that includes Youk and Pedroia. don’t be surprised if KROD wins the Cy Young
September 5th, 2008 at 11:40 am
NL Cy Young should be interesting. Webb will probably get it, especially if they win West, but how about the season Lincecum is having? He leads NL in K’s and ERA by a healthy margin, and should have at least two more wins if not for the ‘pen…
September 5th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Cliff Lee is 20-2 and leading the league (by 0.22 runs) in ERA at 2.32. Yes - Lee’s team sucks… but there is *no* way K-Rod gets the CYA. If there was no obvious starter? Fine… his gaudy save totals would probably get him the hardware. But Cliff Lee is 20… and… *2* - with an excellent ERA. I’ll be stunned if he’s not the unanimous winner. And though I don’t think he’d necessarily deserve it, I won’t be surprised if Dice-K finishes 2nd ahead of K-Rod - as Dice-K stands at 16-2, 2.88 ERA (#4 in AL)… and voters will be ignorant to his frustratingly high walk totals. K-Rod has the 54 saves… very nice - but his 2.43 ERA is *higher* than Cliff Lee’s. The starter has a better ERA than the closer… no way K-Rod gets anywhere close to the CYA this season (unless Cliff Lee goes John Wasdin in his remaining starts… and even then, he’d have to go “bad” John Wasdin… which seems redundant, but my point is he’d have to be John Wasdin on John Wasdin’s worst day - over the next month - to lose the CYA at this point).
As for NL Cy Young, I’m with Gonzo… Linecum is more deserving than (likely winner) Webb. Webb is currently 19-6, 3.19 ERA, 160 K. Linecum is 15-3 (i.e. better winning %), 2.60 ERA and 216 K. Interesting that ERA#2 Jake Peavy (2.69) only has 9 wins and ERA#3 (Santana) only has 12 wins. Webb is all I hear about, but Linecum seems to be most deserving… and I’m not sure it’s even close.
As for AL MVP, if Chicago wins the Central (and I think they will), then I think Carlos Quentin wins it and Josh Hamilton finishes second (too many people love his story). I think Pedroia gets enough votes to be top-5, and might somehow sneak into top-3 if there’s an undercurrent of support that develops in the next four weeks (especially if he continues his recent torrid pace).
On pure numbers, ARod is probably deserving of the AL MVP - but he won’t get any first-place votes. I wouldn’t mind seeing Pedroia get it - but I’m not sure he’s deserving and ultimately I’m not sure he’ll get any first-place votes (outside of maybe Boston).
September 5th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Oh… and on NL MVP, can we all agree that Pujols will win it going away?
One last thought on NL CYA: I mentioned previously, but I’ll be very interested to see where Sabathia finishes in the vote. Recall that Rick Sutcliffe got traded in-season to the Cubs and pitched so great that he ended up getting the NL CYA that year (1984? without checking).
One last thought on AL CYA: Based purely on offense, Milton Bradley is doing better than ARod… but Bradley’s a DH and… well, he has the rep as a headcase. In addition, he plays for a horrible team - which won’t help him when he’s got other marks against him. But Bradley should finish no worse than top-5, and could easily be top-3.
If I had a vote, I’d go Quentin, ARod, Pedroia, Bradley, Hamilton on my AL MVP ticket. And I might put Sabathia second behind Linecum on my NL CYA ballot. I’d probably put Dice-K second, ahead of K-Rod… cuz I’m not that impressed by inflated save numbers… unless they’re accompanied by gaudy ERA and WHIP numbers (which K-Rod’s aren’t).