picks
January 1st, 2009 by shtiny
Let’s see how we do this year with picks.. I am going to keep track on this site….
Today I am taking Iowa, Clemson and Va Tech…. Let’s keep score and see how we do….
I am only going to publish picks that I really like….
January 2nd, 2009 at 11:34 am
We’ll continue this in the comment section… so that it doesn’t take up the whole site.
Record 2-1
Picks Jan 2
Texas Tech and USC Hoops. Oregon is terrible this year, and is led by a 5′6″ point guard. USC has DeRozan who is a top 10 pick whenever he wants to come out. 2.5 points is nothing.. USC wins by double digits on the road. Mississippi is getting lots of credit for beating Florida…. while that is a signature win, I don’t see them stopping TTech, who should be pissed off at the lack of postseason awards this year. TTech is a senior laden team… playing near home laying the 4
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:47 am
Record 3-2
Taking G-Town over Pitt (-3.5)
Arizona Cards (PK)
January 8th, 2009 at 11:15 am
BCS game tonight - I’ve got Florida (-1.5) over Oklahoma. I think it’ll be a fairly high-scoring game… say 38-31, something like that. To me, the delta between the Florida offense and the Oklahoma defense is greater than the delta between the Oklahoma offense and the Florida defense - making Florida the winner. In other words, Oklahoma has the best offense on the field (and perhaps in the country), but the Florida offense is pretty good as well… and the Florida defense is better (enough) than the Oklahoma defense. I don’t expect either defense to “shut down” the opposing offense - but Florida will slow down Oklahoma more than Oklahoma will slow down Florida.
In short, in a bowl game, I tend to pick the SEC team unless I have a *very* compelling reason not to… and I’ve yet to have a compelling reason not to.
This coming weekend, I’ve got…
Baltimore (+2.5) at Tennesee - Ravens running game has developed to become almost as good as (if not as good, or better than) the Titans… and Flacco’s already a better passer (and has better weapons) than Collins. And the Titans defense has been very good this year, but the Ravens are better (as long as Ed Reed plays… and he’s playing).
Arizona (+10) at Carolina - The Cardinals are 0-5 coming East this year, although they were ahead of the Panthers (in Carolina) in the second half of their game earlier this year. I’m not sure Arizona will win (though I think it’s conceivable they could), but I do expect them to keep it closer than 10 pts.
Philadelphia (+4.5) at NY Giants - I think the Eagles are playing well the past month or so (despite that hiccup against Washington in week 16). I think the Giants are easier to defend without the threat of Plax, and the Eagles D has specifically been playing very well. At the very least, the Eagles won’t lose by less than a FG… and I like their chainces of actually winning this game outright.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) vs. San Diego - Basically, I already took three road ‘dogs, so I’ve got to take at *least* one home favorite. The Chargers are a bunch of whiners, and the Steelers are… well, just good - specifically on defense. The Chargers did well against the Colts “defense” last week, but the Steelers defense is… um, better. And although the Colts offense is better than the Steelers offense, Big Ben seems to step up in playoff games (other than against New England). I won’t be surprised to see at least one DST TD for the Steelers - maybe two (with the second being a late one as the Chargers take risks late, thereby allowing the Steelers to cover the spread… well, unless the refs disallow the late DTD to cover the spread like they did to the Steelers earlier this season… but I digress).
This is what I say… what say you?!
January 8th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
Missed a couple days.. oh… well - Record 4-3
Taking the Florida Gators tonight… As for NFL, I am taking Ten and the Giants… not touching the other 2 games. LenDale White / Chris Johnson will dominate this game, and the Eagles have so many flaws to its game
January 8th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Pounder then (using above spreads) on Ten/Balt and Phi/NYG?
And I’m thinking White/Johnson won’t combine for 100 yards rushing (and yes, I’ll Pounder that). Heck, they may not even combine for 75 yards. No need for the Ravens to worry about the pass… eight in the box - especially *those* eight in the box? Titans aren’t going anywhere.
January 11th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Well… Chris Johnson *might* have dominated the game… had he not gotten hurt in the 2nd quarter (as he was certainly doing well to that point). LenDale White? Not so much. And yes… I suspect his presence in the second half would’ve been enough to overcome the missed FG, and the turnovers, and the Baltimore defense… but he wasn’t there, so I have one Pounder down - and one to go on the weekend.
As I think about it more… now freakin’ way the Chargers win in Pittsburgh. No… freakin’… way. The Steelers should win by a TD (or at least 6, depending on the FG situation)… and I won’t be surprised to see them win by double digits - although Big Ben could conceivably play poorly enough to keep the Chargers in the game. But Big Ben *cannot* play poorly enough to have the Steelers lose. And we’ll be treated to endless Charger whining after their loss cuz… well, that’s what they do.
January 13th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Let’s keep the streak a-rollin’. Four-for-four last weekend, here’s what I see for the coming weekend:
Eagles (-3) over Arizona - I really, really, really wanted to pick Arizona. They’re playing at home. They’re offense is actually balanced. They’re defense is flying all over the field, collecting turnovers (and rendering two of the best RBs in the NFL this season meaningless, in Turner and Williams). Whisenhunt has the pedigree, and clearly has his team firing on all cylinders… confident… playing so well. The Eagles offense has not impressed me at all this postseason. But… the Eagles defense has. The Eagles defense will be the difference. Yes… yes… the Falcons and Panthers have good defenses - but the Eagles have a great defense, at least in the past two months. And that will the difference. Well… that and the fact that I don’t expect Westbrook and McNabb to turn the ball over the way Michael Turner and (especially) Jake Delhomme have the past two weeks. My heart is picking the Cardinals, cuz I’d love to see Kurt Warner get back to the Super Bowl (and in the process, likely cement his place in Canton), but… my head says the Eagles. Well… my head and my wife - so that’s good enough for me.
Steelers (-5) over the Ravens - Steelers will not be beat at home in the playoffs… at least not by this team, which suffered three significant injuries on defense last week. If Harbaugh lets Flacco loose (which he didn’t do last week at all), then the Ravens have a chance - but… the Steelers defense is the AFC version of the Eagles defense (of late). And defense wins in the playoffs. I think the Ravens have a good chance of keeping it close, and thus might beat the spread… but I’ll still go with the Steelers.
Last week, it was 3 of 4 (road) ‘dogs. This week, I’m 2-for-2 on the chalk (although one is a road team). What say the rest of you? Be heard.
P.S. Thank you for the Pounder, Gonzo. Why not bet against the Eagles again?!
January 13th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Sign me up for a pounder on Cardinals over Iggles, even though I can’t stand Kurt Warner and every 5 minute stupid-close zoom-ins of his wife in the front row, with her 20 years ago teased haircut and (unconfirmed) workout leg warmers. Yeah, that’s really all the analysis I have on that game.
I can’t go against Pittsburgh. I know Chris Cox, and Senator, you’re no Chris Cox. The fact that I know someone (well a couple of peeps, if you throw in Garlock) from that town is good enough for me. So no action on that one, even though Flacco is a good story.
January 18th, 2009 at 11:19 am
I truly wouldn’t mind the Cardinals going to the Super Bowl. Yeah, that’s right… I’m caught up in their story - decades of dismal play, Kurt Warner reborn, etc. But I just think the Eagles defense is playing great right now, and the offense is playing well enough… and even *in* Arizona, that will be enough for Donovan F. McNabb to get to another Super Bowl (after a season in which so many seemed to insist he’d be sent out of town during the offseason… again, as it’s become an annual prediction since the last time he was in the Super Bowl… against some other Northeast team, who *used* to frequent the Big Game).
I do not like the Steelers. I just don’t. I’d actually *prefer* the Ravens win that game - but two things stick out to me: (1) before getting hurt, Chris Johnson ran well against that defense last week (and thus I expect Willie Parker to do similarly well, or at the very least, better than most expect), and that was before (2) the Ravens lost Suggs and Rolle to injuries. I think the Ravens best chance is to let Flacco throw the ball. I get that he’s a rookie, and they have a great defense and a good running game - but the Steelers will contain that Ravens running game (especially if Flacco doesn’t keep ‘em honest by throwing more than 15 times). I like Flacco. I suspect the Steelers defense wills shut down the entire offense, even if Flacco is allowed to actually throw the ball… but I think the Ravens best chance for victory is Flacco’s arm. If the Ravens rely on defense and their running game (i.e. run-to-pass ratio is more than 50/50), they will lose by at least a TD. They may lose by that much (or more) if Flacco throws the ball half the time (or more), but they may also actually win the game.
In short, if they take no risk with Flacco, I see no possible reward of a victory. If they *do* take a risk with Flacco, I see at least the possibility of a reward of a victory.
These are the charges as recorded this day, November 14, 1962… faithfully submitted… Douglas C. Niedermeyer… sergeant-at-arms.
January 18th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Cards will roll. Eagles make too many mistakes, and the Cards getting points at home is a gift.
Steelers are the best team in football, and take care of business 21-10
January 18th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
So if I may translate - I have Pounder on the Eagles with you and BA each. And since Gonzo was apparently incapable of an additional “click” from his computer, from e-mail to OGS (which I’m certain he’s got saved in his Favorites, like the rest of us)… I’ll take the liberty of noting that he’s got the Ravens, to my Steelers.
I can only ass-ume that since Danny and BA are on board with the Steelers as well… that Gonzo automatically takes Pounder action with both of them as well. He has until 3PM EST to deny that assumption, else it’s recorded.
Much like Larry Kroger, the Cards have been enjoyed their time over their heads in the unfamiliar setting of the Omega House… er, playoffs - but now it’s time to escort them over to the corner where they belong. So now Lonnie (that’s Larry)… er, St. Louis (that’s Arizona), meet Clayton, Sidney, Jugdish and Mohammet - aka Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota and New York. “Yeah, we’ve met”. “Great… then you’ll have lots to talk about… yeah.”
Oh… and looking ahead - just in case I’m stranded on a deserted isle for the next two weeks and (like Gonzo) am incapable of getting back to OGS, I want to go on record right now: For the Super Bowl, I’ve got the NFC team (with whatever points they’ll inevitably be getting when the line opens tomorrow).
P.S. Rumor has it that Donovan F. McNabb was overheard talking to commissioner Roger Goodell, insisting, “I don’t want to be pushy, but
January 18th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
(to continue my final thought from my previous entry, since Bob *frequently* hit’s Enter before he’s done)
[Goodell interrupting]… let the unacceptable teams worry about that, Donovan. Cuz after tonight, they’re… *you* are… Arizona!
McNabb moves to 2-3 in NFC Championship Games, and then in two weeks, brings home the hardware for a city to celebrate its second major championship in a little over three months (after waiting 26 years since the last one). Oh, and they’ll all *love* McNabb now… until he throws a few picks next season - and then they’ll want him out of town… again.