Sox/Yanks rotations are eerily similar
Conventional wisdom (outside of maybe NY) seems to hold that the Red Sox rotation will be better than the Yankee rotation in 2007. As I began to look at both rotations, I found that they were constructed rather similarly. To wit:
The Asian Ace – Sox have Dice-K, Yankees have Wang. Wang came over with relatively little fanfare, and has proven that he belongs (probably at the top of the rotation). Dice-K has come over with much fanfare, and still needs to prove he belongs – although his WHIP, ERA and K/BB numbers are clearly impressive.
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Matsuzaka (26) | 06/Japan | 25 | 186.1 | 17-5 | 0.92 | 2.13 | 159 | 5.9 |
| Wang (26) | 06/AL | 34 | 218.0 | 19-6 | 1.31 | 3.63 | 121 | 1.5 |
For the purposes of ERA+ for Dice-K (and Igawa below), I used a Japanese league-average ERA of 3.38 (which I found reported online). If it’s a bit off, so be it – but hopefully it serves to provide some sort of context regarding the actual ERAs posted by the Japanese players relative to MLB ERAs.
The Texan – Sox have Beckett, Yankees have Pettitte. Both have had success in the past – although Pettite’s “success” is more recent than Beckett’s. Beckett is younger, and perhaps just now entering his prime, which is what Sox fans are resting their hats on.
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Beckett (26) | 06/AL | 33 | 204.7 | 16-11 | 1.29 | 5.01 | 92 | 2.1 |
| Pettitte (34) | 06/NL | 36 | 214.3 | 14-13 | 1.44 | 4.20 | 108 | 2.5 |
Interesting to note that Pettitte’s WHIP was higher than Beckett’s, yet his ERA was almost a full run lower than Beckett’s (and the AL and NL league-average ERAs were very close last year). I suspect Beckett’s susceptibility to the gopher ball (36 HRs) is the difference… wait, I see where Pettitte gave up 27 HRs last year – more than I would’ve expected. Anyhow, Beckett says he’s gonna listen to Varitek this year. Okay. Hopefully that actually makes a difference.
The Next Roger Clemens – Sox have Papelbon, Yankees have Hughes. I’ve heard both described as “the next Roger Clemens”. Much like “the next Jordan” phenomenon, fans and media feel compelled to label nearly every big RH starter as the next Clemens. That said, these two do show a great deal of promise – and neither’s had a full year of starting in the majors. Papelbon was clearly outstanding last year as the closer, but can he transfer that dominance to starting? Hughes seems to be doing everything he can to ensure that the Yankees have no choice but to go north in April with him on the big club’s roster.
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Papelbon (26) | 05/AA | 14 | 87.0 | 5-2 | 0.94 | 2.48 | 154 | 3.6 |
| Hughes (20) | 06/AA | 21 | 116.0 | 10-3 | 0.91 | 2.25 | 169 | 4.3 |
| Clemens | 83/AA | 7 | 52.0 | 4-1 | 0.83 | 1.38 | n/a | 4.9 |
It’s tough comparing these two – but I choose to look only at Papelbon’s AA stats (from 2005, where he also pitched at AAA and in the majors), to compare against Hughes AA stats last year (although he also pitched some high-A ball). I used an Eastern League league-average ERA of 3.81 to calculate ERA+. Just for fun, I threw in Clemens AA stats from 1983, when he was 21. I can’t find Eastern League league-average ERA from that year to calculate an ERA+, but I suspect Clemens 1.38 ERA would probably provide an ERA+ over 200 (probably well over 200).
The Old, maybe-HOF Guy – Sox have Schilling, Yankees have Mussina. Both have had very good careers, but both probably need a couple more effective years to solidify HOF resumes. Both pitched well last year. Will both (or either) be able to pitch as effectively this year – or will the (inevitable) precipitous decline(s) begin now?
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Schilling (40) | 06/AL | 31 | 204.0 | 15-7 | 1.22 | 3.97 | 116 | 6.5 |
| Mussina (38) | 06/AL | 32 | 197.3 | 15-7 | 1.11 | 3.51 | 125 | 4.9 |
Last year, they had exactly the same records with basically the same amount of innings pitched – but Mussina clearly pitched better, as evidenced by the WHIP and ERA numbers. While Mussina’s K/BB ratio is certainly impressive, interesting that Schilling’s is actually better… neither of these guys walk too many batters (perhaps one of the many reasons they continue to be successful, eh?).
The Unknown – Sox have Wakefield, Yankees have Igawa. Wakefield’s knuckler is like Gump’s box of chocolates… you never know what you’re gonna get. He’s developed into an innings-eater with a league-average ERA (and there’s definite value in that), but from start to start… you just don’t know. As for Igawa, Dice-K took all the headlines this past off-season – but the Yankees like something about Igawa, as evidenced by the money they spent on his posting fee ($26 million, second only to Dice-K), and then in signing him (5-yr/$20 million). Is he going to trump Dice-K in the production department after Dice-K dominated him in the promotion department? Or was the relative lack of fanfare for Igawa justified?
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Wakefield (40) | 06/AL | 23 | 140.0 | 7-11 | 1.33 | 4.63 | 100 | 1.8 |
| Igawa (27) | 06/Japan | 28 | 200.0 | 13-9 | 1.10 | 3.11 | 109 | 4.0 |
If I’ve got the right league-average ERA from the Japan Leagues, Igawa was a bit better than a league-average pitcher who ate up a lot of innings… which is what Wakefield usually does (last year’s rare injury notwithstanding).
The Wild Card – Sox have Lester, Yankees have Pavano. Both are returning from injury, and both have showed great promise in the past indicating they could certainly help their respective rotations with healthy performances this year. Now, Lester is returning from cancer – so he’ll clearly (or should I say hopefully) be brought along slowly. Conversely, Pavano seems to need to do something quickly – to satiate the media, fans, and at least some of his teammates (i.e. Old Guy Yankee above). Pavano’s career as a Yankee pitcher has been littered with a litany of injuries trumped only by Wily E. Coyote’s career as a Roadrunner pursuer. It seems clear that each of these guys will be needed by their respective teams at some point during the season. Which one will (better) answer the call?
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Lester (23) | 06/AL | 15 | 81.3 | 7-2 | 1.65 | 4.76 | 97 | 1.4 |
| Pavano (31) | 05/NL | 17 | 100.0 | 4-6 | 1.47 | 4.77 | 93 | 3.1 |
Which one would you be more comfortable with? If both are healthy, Pavano should pitch better – if only cuz he’s more experienced. Of course, health is a major concern with both these guys. That said, if Lester can do something about his high walk rate, we could see quite an improvement in Lester’s numbers this year.
The Roger Clemens Sweepstakes – First question: Does anyone really doubt that Clemens will pitch in MLB in 2007 (probably starting somewhere in mid-June)? Next question: Does anyone (outside Houston) really doubt it’ll be either Boston or New York? Based on the performances of each team’s rotations through the first two months or so of the season, we’ll have a good idea which one is more likely to give Clemens is $20 million (with travel benefits) for part-time work in their employ.
| pitcher (age) |
yr/league |
G |
IP |
W-L |
WHIP |
ERA |
ERA+ |
K/BB |
| Clemens (44) | 06/NL | 19 | 113.3 | 7-6 | 1.04 | 2.30 | 197 | 3.5 |
This part-time pitcher thing seems to fit him well, wouldn’t you say? He’s gonna slow down at some point – but if the payroll’s available, I’d take another shot on him this year… wouldn’t you?
I like the Sox rotation – but it’s set up eerily similar to the Yankees rotation, at least as I’ve arbitrarily assigned “pitcher types”… which gives me pause. We can prognosticate all we want, and we will… but ultimately it comes down to something Joaquin Andujar once said, “You can sum it baseball in one word – youneverknow.”
Okay, I’m done now.
February 28th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Much as it pains me to say this, Boston has the better man in each comparison, save possibly Wakefield/Igawa and Lester/Pavano. Wang definitely had a breakout year but also benefited from strong run support. Would anyone really prefer him to Matsuzaka? Beckett is a great pitcher with his best years in front of him; Pettitte is a one-time Cy Young contender in the twilight of his career. Schilling has the heart of a lion and is a team leader, in contrast with the unjustifiably sulllen and moody Mussina. Igawa is younger than the geriatric Wakefield, but as a knuckleballer Wakefield can remain effective well into his dotage. I’ll believe Pavano pitches for the Yankees when I see it; he could very easily stub his toe or get stung by a bee before opening day. The Yanks’ staff reminds me more and more of the Yankees 1980s-vintage teams - expensive position players, some of whom actually justify their salaries, and a jerry-built pitching staff with one or two legitimate top-level pitchers surrounded by a motley collection retreads and cast-offs. The hallmark of those teams? The longest stretch between World Series titles in Yankees history. Eighteen years. Oh, the humanity.
February 28th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
You mean some children in the greater NY are might have to wait until high school graduation to personally experience *their* first Yankee championship? I’m aghast.
If we’re keeping score at home, I’d project (strictly for 2007) this way:
Asian Ace - edge Dice-K. I believe the hype.
Texan - edge Pettitte. I’ll believe Beckett can be 2003 Josh when I see him be 2003 Josh.
Next Roger Clemens - edge Papelbon. Hughes looks like the real deal, but Papelbon’s been in the bigs for a year-and-a-half, so I’ve gotta give him the edge there.
Old, maybe HOF guy - edge Mussina. Mussina was better last year, and he’ll be better this year.
Unknown (aka Gump Chocolate Guy) - edge Wakefield. Likely just my Red Sox bias, but I have questions about Igawa (that I don’t have with Dice-K) - and Wakefield (looking season to season) is just so consistent.
Wild Card - edge Lester. Who will make a start first this year: Pavano or Clement (and Clement is out until at least the All-Star Break already). I heard that Pavano hurt his leg in Spring Training recently (although I subsequently heard its no big deal… yet).
Is that enough to get the Sox past the Yanks? Nope - considering that a “slight” edge in bullpen and offensive lineup would need to go to the Yankees.
February 28th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Precisely; already we are facing the prospect of young Yankees fans starting second grade this September without the Yankees ever winning the World Series during their lifetime. That means there will even be kids entering junior high with no personal, first hand recollection of a Yankees championship. Is that really the kind of world we want our children to inherit?
March 6th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
For Wang: There is no pitcher comparable to Wang. He has the best GB/FB ratio in the game. While, he has a horribly low K/9 rate, the fact he only gave up 12 HRs last year more than makes up for his lack of strikeouts. Wang has also proven that he can win 19 games in MLB.
For Matsuzaka:
Japanese league ERA in 2005 - 4.10
Japanese league ERA in 2006 - 4.53
So I think 3.38 is WAY low. So you are undervaluing D-Mats ERA+ but 159 is ridiculous as it is. Matsusaka has never won more than 17 in Japan. If you are that dominant, it is reasonable to assume that one year he would have won 20. (Even Igawa has had a 20 win season) D-Mat is a strikeout pitcher who has even better control than Wang.
The similarity between these two pitchers are that they are both foreign, young and pretty good. It is similar to comparing Doug Jones and Troy Percival just because they both saved a bunch of games.
Pettitte and Beckett are really not comparable pitchers. First, Pettitte really isn’t a hard thrower and is left handed. He is also a lot older and past his prime. Certainly, that alone would make him more of an injury risk. After Pettitte’s career year in 2005 (2.39 ERA 1.03 Ratio) he was more than ordinary last year (238 hits and 27 HRs in 214 IP). The main difference between the 2 is that Pettitte is going to be much more consistant, have more quality starts and keep the Yankees in the game most of the time. He isn’t going to get shelled very often. On the other hand, you won’t see Pettitte having many games where he goes 8+ IP, 0ER, 8+Ks. Beckett will have at least 5 of those.
Papelbon and Hughes are both clearly top prospects who throw very hard and have had success throughout their careers. In 2005 the league ERA was 3.94 in the Eastern League.
Hughes is 6 years younger and never pitched in the majors, while Papelbon could have won ROY in a different year. (i.e. without a Verlander or Liriano). I would give the edge in 2007 to Papelbon based on the fact that he WILL be in the majors for certain, and the fact that he has had success getting ML hitters out. Hughes needs an injury to see the big leagues this year (although with Pavano in the rotation that seems certain)…. Although, I wouldn’t dub either of these guys the next Clemens
Schilling v Mussina is an excellent comparison. Both pitchers have excellent control, give up the occasional HR, have very similar GB/FB ratios. Mussina was better last year, but Schilling is probably a little more motivated this year. Again, I would take the Sox pitcher here.
Comparing a knuckleball pitcher to any other pitcher is unfair. Wakefield is also very streaky. I don’t know much about Igawa, but he has been VERY consistant throughout his Japanese career.
All that said, the Sox have fewe
March 7th, 2007 at 10:27 am
You’re so literal. I wasn’t saying that each set of two pitchers is exactly the same. I was looking at a way to link the starting fives of each rotation - so things like “Texans” and “Unknowns” are clearly somewhat tenuous… just a way of pairing those two respective teachers. Dice-K and Wang are clearly different types of pitchers, as their listed stats clearly show - but they are both imports who should be at the top of their respective rotations for years to come.
As for Japanese Leagues, I got the league-average ERAs off the web - but I guess I got bad info. Regarding Dice-K’s wins, please don’t tell me you’re foolish enough to suggest that wins is a good metric of a pitcher’s ability. To wit: Beckett had no business winning 16 games last year, given his high ERA and proclivity for giving up home runs. But his teammates scored more runs than he gave up enough times to get him 16 wins. Given Dice-K’s Gibson-like ERA, it’s not a stretch to suggest he got very little run support (without even looking it up).
Or a better example, Roger Clemens. In 2002, he had a league-average ERA and won 13 games for the Yankees. In 2005, he had a 221 ERA+ (1.87 vs. 4.14 league-average)… and won 13 games. So… you’re suggesting that we should have pause about Clemens since he hasn’t managed to win 20 games in the past five years? C’mon, Danny… you’re way better than that.
Regarding Wakefield and Igawa, you reiterate my reasoning for lumping them together has “Unknowns”. From season to season, Wakefield’s numbers are pretty consistent - but from start to start, or inning to inning, it can be an unknown. As for Igawa, his consistency in Japan is nice - but he wasn’t consistently excellent, a la Dice-K… thus, at least in my mind, it’s an unknown how he’ll translate to MLB (especially since the Yankees have him as either a bottom-of-the rotation starter or worst-case, middle reliever).
I’m not sure what you’re last sentence was meant to say, but it clearly got cut off. I believe you intended to say something to the effect of “the Sox have fewer questions marks/concerns” - which may be true… but I just think this notion that the Sox do have a solid rotation is premature. I think they *could* have a very solid rotation - but they could just as easily end up with some holes.