As for Japanese Leagues, I got the league-average ERAs off the web - but I guess I got bad info. Regarding Dice-K’s wins, please don’t tell me you’re foolish enough to suggest that wins is a good metric of a pitcher’s ability. To wit: Beckett had no business winning 16 games last year, given his high ERA and proclivity for giving up home runs. But his teammates scored more runs than he gave up enough times to get him 16 wins. Given Dice-K’s Gibson-like ERA, it’s not a stretch to suggest he got very little run support (without even looking it up).

Or a better example, Roger Clemens. In 2002, he had a league-average ERA and won 13 games for the Yankees. In 2005, he had a 221 ERA+ (1.87 vs. 4.14 league-average)… and won 13 games. So… you’re suggesting that we should have pause about Clemens since he hasn’t managed to win 20 games in the past five years? C’mon, Danny… you’re way better than that.

Regarding Wakefield and Igawa, you reiterate my reasoning for lumping them together has “Unknowns”. From season to season, Wakefield’s numbers are pretty consistent - but from start to start, or inning to inning, it can be an unknown. As for Igawa, his consistency in Japan is nice - but he wasn’t consistently excellent, a la Dice-K… thus, at least in my mind, it’s an unknown how he’ll translate to MLB (especially since the Yankees have him as either a bottom-of-the rotation starter or worst-case, middle reliever).

I’m not sure what you’re last sentence was meant to say, but it clearly got cut off. I believe you intended to say something to the effect of “the Sox have fewer questions marks/concerns” - which may be true… but I just think this notion that the Sox do have a solid rotation is premature. I think they *could* have a very solid rotation - but they could just as easily end up with some holes.

For Matsuzaka:
Japanese league ERA in 2005 - 4.10
Japanese league ERA in 2006 - 4.53

So I think 3.38 is WAY low. So you are undervaluing D-Mats ERA+ but 159 is ridiculous as it is. Matsusaka has never won more than 17 in Japan. If you are that dominant, it is reasonable to assume that one year he would have won 20. (Even Igawa has had a 20 win season) D-Mat is a strikeout pitcher who has even better control than Wang.

The similarity between these two pitchers are that they are both foreign, young and pretty good. It is similar to comparing Doug Jones and Troy Percival just because they both saved a bunch of games.

Pettitte and Beckett are really not comparable pitchers. First, Pettitte really isn’t a hard thrower and is left handed. He is also a lot older and past his prime. Certainly, that alone would make him more of an injury risk. After Pettitte’s career year in 2005 (2.39 ERA 1.03 Ratio) he was more than ordinary last year (238 hits and 27 HRs in 214 IP). The main difference between the 2 is that Pettitte is going to be much more consistant, have more quality starts and keep the Yankees in the game most of the time. He isn’t going to get shelled very often. On the other hand, you won’t see Pettitte having many games where he goes 8+ IP, 0ER, 8+Ks. Beckett will have at least 5 of those.

Papelbon and Hughes are both clearly top prospects who throw very hard and have had success throughout their careers. In 2005 the league ERA was 3.94 in the Eastern League.
Hughes is 6 years younger and never pitched in the majors, while Papelbon could have won ROY in a different year. (i.e. without a Verlander or Liriano). I would give the edge in 2007 to Papelbon based on the fact that he WILL be in the majors for certain, and the fact that he has had success getting ML hitters out. Hughes needs an injury to see the big leagues this year (although with Pavano in the rotation that seems certain)…. Although, I wouldn’t dub either of these guys the next Clemens

Schilling v Mussina is an excellent comparison. Both pitchers have excellent control, give up the occasional HR, have very similar GB/FB ratios. Mussina was better last year, but Schilling is probably a little more motivated this year. Again, I would take the Sox pitcher here.

Comparing a knuckleball pitcher to any other pitcher is unfair. Wakefield is also very streaky. I don’t know much about Igawa, but he has been VERY consistant throughout his Japanese career.

All that said, the Sox have fewe

If we’re keeping score at home, I’d project (strictly for 2007) this way:

Asian Ace - edge Dice-K. I believe the hype.

Texan - edge Pettitte. I’ll believe Beckett can be 2003 Josh when I see him be 2003 Josh.

Next Roger Clemens - edge Papelbon. Hughes looks like the real deal, but Papelbon’s been in the bigs for a year-and-a-half, so I’ve gotta give him the edge there.

Old, maybe HOF guy - edge Mussina. Mussina was better last year, and he’ll be better this year.

Unknown (aka Gump Chocolate Guy) - edge Wakefield. Likely just my Red Sox bias, but I have questions about Igawa (that I don’t have with Dice-K) - and Wakefield (looking season to season) is just so consistent.

Wild Card - edge Lester. Who will make a start first this year: Pavano or Clement (and Clement is out until at least the All-Star Break already). I heard that Pavano hurt his leg in Spring Training recently (although I subsequently heard its no big deal… yet).

Is that enough to get the Sox past the Yanks? Nope - considering that a “slight” edge in bullpen and offensive lineup would need to go to the Yankees.