I’ll take Drew + Manny and 250+ total games. Any chance we could put multiple Pounders on this one? Manny’s effectively in a contract year, he’s playing. And Drew’s played 140+ games in 3 of the last 4 years (see, unlike your boy Sheets - his “fragile” tag actually *is* a thing of the past) - and beginning in 2000, he’s played at least 135 games every even year (fwiw). I will be stunned if they don’t combine for 250+ games.

I’ll take Fielder/Ortiz on OPS+ and Braun/Ortiz on OPS+. Ortiz got his legs fixed in the offseason, and he’ll have a productive Manny to protect him… no way he goes under 1.000 OPS, and I’m eager to see how high he ends up. But, the NL is clearly not as good a hitter’s league overall, so Fielder and Braun will benefit with OPS+ in that regard. It’ll be interesting to see how these turn out.

As for playoff predictions, let’s indeed do that on a separate post… I shouldn’t have brought it up here.

How about these Gallardo has a greater ERA+ than any Red Sox pitcher. Individual pounders on Gallardo v Beckett, Gallardo v Wakefield, Gallardo v Buccholz, Gallardo v Lester.

In addition, while I do like Buccholz for the long term, I would pounder that Villanueva will out-ERA+ him this season.

I will also pounder that Drew + Manny will play less than 250 games total

I will also pounder that Fielder will out OPS+ Ortiz, and for that matter Braun will out OPS+ Ortiz

As for the playoffs…. this is finally the year. This is the first time that a Sheets injury will not totally derail this team. No one is expecting more than 25 starts from him, and the fact that he is in a contract year, means he will likely pitch through some of the minor tweaks that have shelved him in the past. This probably deserves a separate post, but I will Pounder the Brewers will win the division. The Cubs are being lauded nationally, and the 100year thing is going to hurt them, not help them. They still have Dempster, and Marquis in the rotation, and I need to see a little more of Fukudome, before determining if he is more Hideki Matsui than Kaz Matsui (early on in their MLB careers). They are still counting on Kerry Wood….

As for the NL East.. I think the Mets roll. That pitching staff is way too good to lose to the Phils this year.

Given the different leagues, any Pounder bet has to be on OPS+. I’ll take Manny-Braun (more in a moment), Pedroia-Weeks (you should win this one, but who cares), and Drew-Hart (he can wear his sunglasses at night and never surrender… he’s still not as good as Brian Adams nor is he as good as JD Drew). We appear to agree on the rest of the starters, and all the starting pitchers. I’m not interested in wasting bandwidth on a Torres/Tavarez debate - and if you say Dillon’s good, fine. As I look at it more, Cora and Counsell are far closer than I first thought… I’ll still take Cora, but punting may not be a bad call for this down and distance.

Now, “will they pick up Manny’s 2009 (and 2010) option(s) for $20 million”? They might. That’s right, they might. But they won’t make the decision until *after* the season, regardless of what Manny’s new agent (some guy named Boras) says or does. If Manny regains form as the 144+ OPS+ guy, then they’ll probably pick up 2009 - and wait until after his 2009 campaign to decide about 2010. Think about it: ARod just got $27 million/yr (up to $30 mil/yr if you include the likely makeable “incentives”). Or more to the point: Torii Hunter got $18 mil/yr for five years. *If* Manny can come anywhere close to regaining form, then a one-year/$20 mil deal for *that* production is actually a bargain. If 2008 Manny is 2007 Manny (or worse) - then they cut ties. I like the Sox position on this one… and despite his public persona, I think that (a) Manny does have some pride, and (b) Manny does like to make money, and (c) is smart enough to realize that if he sucks, he ain’t seein’ $20 mil - so his best bet is to play great the next two years, collect $40 million dollars, and then see what he can got on the open market as a 38-yr-old (but still potent) slugger. (Think Barry Bonds with a lower OBP but also less baggage.) Sure, sure… if he gets off to a good start, Boras will probably make noise about the Sox *having* to come to the table to negotiate some sort of long-term deal. But they won’t.

I’m Poundering that its more likely that Braun suffers a sophomore slump (relatively speaking) then that Manny repeats 2007 as opposed to 1995-2006 (when his OPS+ was between 144 and 186… that’s right, in those 12 years, his *lowest* OPS+ for a season was 144). I’m not sure if anyone actually doubts this - but barring some sort of PED controversy, Manny Ramirez is a first-ballot HOFer in addition to being a first-ballot Goofball.

So anyhow… come back to me on those three Pounders, comparing OPS+. And if you see anything else to talk about, let me know.

And one other thing: Are the Brewers going to freakin’ win something this year? I don’t even care if they don’t win the division as long as they get the wild card (although that appears to be coming from the East - depending on whether you see (a) the Mets, Phils and Braves beating each other up so none gets over 90 wins, or (b) the Mets, Phils, and Braves doing enough damage outside the NL East that two of them get into the playoffs).

C - Varitek - this really isn’t very close. Kendall is a shell of the player he once was in Pittsburgh. The team is considering batting him 9th after the pitcher….nuff said
1B - Fielder - Gammons is projecting 63 HRs. I’ll take a repeat of last year. Fielder is the youngest player to ever hit 50 HRs and he is doing it without PEDs. Youkilis is a nice player, but didn’t he hit 2nd most of the year. How did he only score 85 runs? He seems to be about as good as Lyle Overbay. Nice asset for a team, but a role player at best. Fielder is a top 5 MVP candidate.
2B - Weeks - Definately a pounder bet here, but Weeks is much better than Pedroia. You say it is close, but I think you may be a little jaded by a couple of post-season hits by Pedroia. Weeks hurt his wrist in July 2006, and it takes a year to heal. When he was close to 100% in August and September, he put up numbers that Pedroia could only dream of: 150AB, 44 R, 11 HR, 17RBI, 15 SB, 0 CS (.273/.444/.553).
SS – Hardy – I agree with you on this. Hardy is an above average SS, but Lugo is slightly below average. I wouldn’t build a team around Hardy, and his .305 OBP in the second half is a little scary. He is still a dependable defensive shortstop. Lugo had a .296 OBP in more than 600 PA’s… that is Johnny Estrdesque
3B – Lowell – I was dead wrong on this guy. If he was a product of steroids early in his career, he is doing a tremendous job of hiding it now. He was arguably the best player on Boston. Bill Hall is a mediocre player. If I were the coach or GM of the Brewers, he would not be starting at 3rd for this team… more on that later
LF – Braun – clearly another pounder bet. Braun would have to be in the lineup for any team in the major leagues. Only one player put up better numbers last year (AROD) and it wasn’t very close. He had a 1.000 OPS last year. Manny is now 35, and on the downside of his career. He was very unimpressive last year and finished with an OPS of .879 (good, but very un-Manny-like). Manny has a $20 M club option for next year… what are the chances that is picked up? Is it greater than 0? Manny also will likely play less than 140 games again.
CF – Ellsbury – Not a huge fan of Cameron, and I know everyone in Boston would love to see Ellsbury play every day. Seems like a very professional hitter, that is very smart, plays good D, and will improve his power over time. Cameron, will be an upgrade over Billy Hall in center, but will still strike out WAY too much to be productive
RF – Corey Hart – are you serious about JD Drew? He hit .270 with 11HRs in a full season. His OBP has slid badly each of the past 4 years. Corey Hart is a breakout candidate waiting to happen. Last year he hit .295 with 24 HR and 23 SB. He also was the top rated defensive right fielder in the game last year according to Baseball Prospectus, at a + 17.
DH – Ortiz – Gabe Gross doesn’t have Big Papi’s clutchness or marketability.

SP – Beckett – finally established himself as the best pitcher in the game (not just the best right hander) If he again gives up less than 20 HRs, he will win the Cy Young, like he should have last year
SP2 – Gallardo – Yo is the best pitcher on the Brewers, including Big Ben. Outside of the shelling he took in Colorado, where he was left in too long because the bullpen was worn out, he had a 2.90 ERA last year and a ratio of 1.260.
SP3 – DiceK – Very difficult to deal with the pressure he was under last year. He will be much more relaxed this year, and I look for him to have a dominant year.
SP4 – Sheets – Even if he only starts 25 games, he will put up good enough numbers to make this staff
SP5 - Bucholtz – very impressed with this guy. I wasn’t expecting the command and control when he came up, but he looks to be a #1 in the making

Closer – Papelbon – no argument here
Setup – Okajima, Riske, Turnbow, Torres, Delcarmen, Shouse – There is no way I would put Tavarez on any team.
Bench – Dillon – last 3 years in the minors he hit .342/.417/.636. in over 1000 Abs. He should be the everyday thirdbaseman in Milwaukee. He can also play either corner outfield position, 2nd, 1st or 3rd. He is going to be a very valuable part of the Brewer bench
Mirabelli – like the veteran presense, and the ability to handle pitchers. Munson is a scrub, and Rivera hit well below .200 in the minors.
Cora v Counsell – Can I punt?
Crisp – BP rated him as the top rated defensive outfielder. He will be a productive player again.

How about you stop whining and put up your list - and then we take it from there?

In the meantime, fine… Fielder is clearly a better 1B than Youkilis, but I still wouldn’t put Braun ahead of Manny. If you want Braun ahead of Drew, I’ll listen to arguments. If you want Weeks, or Kendall, or Villanueva, or Hall, or Gagne, or whatever else you wanna fire in there… then convince me.

Just freakin’ do it already.

C - Varitek (Jason Kendall? Really? What… Hector Villanueva couldn’t get a visa?)
1B - Ortiz (Prince is nice - but he’s no Big Papi)
2B - Pedroia (close - but Pedroia’s got a better OPS+, and is a year younger - plus he’s proven he can handle playoff pressure… something I wonder if Weeks will ever experience if he doesn’t get out of Milli-waukee)
SS - Hardy (more cuz Lugo sucks than cuz Hardy is so great - though I concede Hardy looks like he should have a nice ML career… perhaps he’ll eclipse Dale Sveum)
3B - Lowell (please tell me I don’t have to explain this one, much as you may love Bill Hall)
RF - JD Drew (I assume we’re talking about going forward, as opposed to focusing on the aberration of 2007 that Hart actually outproduced a far superior player in Drew)
CF - Ellsbury (Cameron has speed, Ellsbury has more; Cameron hits the ball hard, Ellsbury hits the ball harder; Cameron strikes out, Ellsbury doesn’t - Ellsbury’s already better, and he’s only scratched the surface at this point)
LF - Manny (I like Braun, and he clearly deserved the RoY - hell, it shouldn’t have been anywhere near as close as it was… but while his 156 OPS+ in his rookie year is impressive, consider that Manny’s *career* OPS+ is 154 and… um, Manny has a contract to play for this year - so, yeah, I’ll take Manny this year, thank you very much. And yeah, I’ll gladly Pounder 2008 OPS+ on these two - as many Pounders as you’re willing to give me)

bench - Coco (would start ahead of Cameron, never mind any of the Brewers reserve OFers),
Cora (clearly better than the vastly overrated Counsell as the utility IF),
Kendall (only cuz Mirabelli wouldn’t be in the majors if Wakefield retired),
Youkilis (heck - I’d start him at 3B ahead of Bill Hall if Lowell weren’t there),
Kapler (as I said, I always liked Gabe Kapler)

SP - Beckett (I trust I don’t have to explain him at the top of the rotation),
Sheets (and I’d pray the clown makes more than 24 starts - cuz when he’s not hurt, he is clearly, um… pretty good),
Dice-K (he’s had his year to adjust - and I expect big things from him… perhaps I’ll be proven wrong, but I just think this guy is the real deal),
… for the last two spots, I ruled out the veteran/flotsam of Suppan, Wakefield, Capuano and Bush - and am forced to choose between the four young kids… ultimately settling on…
Gallardo and Buchholz (although I would understand arguments for Villanueva and Lester, I think G&B will be the better two of the four)

closer - really?

bullpen - Okajima, Delcarmen, Tavarez, Turnbow, Riske, Shouse (I guess we need a LOOGY, and Lopez sucks - plus Shouse used to be with the Sox back in the day, which is nice)

Okay… what’ya got?

I’m dying to hear how Gagne is better than Papelbon, Chris-C (from West Springfield, MA… two snaps up!) is better than Dice-K, and Jason Kendall is better than Jason Varitek… among so many others (including how old friend Gabe Kapler is clearly better than Bobby Kielty… like I should care - although I did always like Kapler, fwiw). I guess you’ll try to tell me Sheets is better than Beckett… which could be true, I suppose, if Sheets wasn’t an annual member of the DL (much as you tell us annually that it’s *not* an actual trend - cuz, ya know, he actually started more than 24 games *four* years ago).

Anyhow… lay it on me.