Starting in RF for Boston: JD Drew
So Trot Nixon’s in Cleveland, and JD Drew replaces him in Boston. Is that a good thing?
Let me start by saying that I am definitely a proud member of the Trot Nixon fan club. Quite frankly, as a Sox fan - or even just as a baseball fan in general - how can you not be? But like it or not, major league baseball is a business - and did the Sox make the right business decision by replacing Nixon with Drew for the next several years? Some may actually be giving an emotionally-driven “no”. After looking at some stats, I say “definitely yes”.
But it’s not a straight up replacement, as Drew will be making a *tad* more than Nixon. Indeed, I’ve heard folks wonder why Drew should get $14 million/year. To that end, I’ll include some of Carlos Lee’s and Alfonso Soriano’s numbers - as they’ll be getting almost $17 mil/yr on 6- and 8-year contracts respectively. Let’s look at the facts.
When the 2007 season starts, Lee will be 30, Soriano will be 31 (if his birth date is to be believed), Drew will be 31 and Nixon will be 33. Nixon and Drew play right field, and bat left-handed – Lee and Soriano play left field and bat right-handed. First, let’s look at their career numbers:
Career:
Player (yrs) – BA/OBP/SLG - - OPS
Drew (9yrs) – 286/393/512 - - 905 OPS
Nixon (10yrs) – 278/386/478 - - 844 OPS
Lee (8yrs) – 286/340/495 - - 835 OPS
Soriano (8yrs) – 280/325/510 - - 835 OPS
Career-wise, JD Drew is the best of the four. None of the other three is higher than Drew in career batting average, on-base percentage, or slugging. Now, career numbers can be somewhat misleading, if a player did a lot of damage at the beginning of his career and his declining (and therefore, may continue to decline after signing his new contract). So let’s look at only the last three seasons:
2004-2006:
Player (games) – BA/OBP/SLG - - OPS
Drew (363 games) – 293/415/532 - - 947 OPS
Nixon (286 games) – 278/367/435 - - 802 OPS
Lee (476 games) – 290/348/517 - - 865 OPS
Soriano (460 games) – 275/329/519 - - 848 OPS
Again, Drew is better than the guy he’d be replacing, and better than the guys who will (apparently) be getting $3 mil/yr more than him. Now, it’s important to note that Carlos Lee has averaged 159 games over the past three years, and Alfonso Soriano has averaged 153. Drew’s averaged 121 games in that time, and Nixon’s averaged 95 games. And looking at Drew’s career games-played numbers, a disturbing trend has developed. In even years, he’s played between 135 and 146 games. In odd years, he’s played between 72 and 109 games. We’re heading into an odd year. Perhaps the past trend is mere coincidence… I guess we’ll find out in the next 8 months. Concerns exist regarding Drew’s durability – and they are not without merit.
The rate stats clearly don’t capture the discrepancy in games played as well as counting stats would. Let’s look at a few counting stats for the three players:
2004-2006:
Player – HR/RBI ; SB/CS
Drew – 66/229 ; 15/7
Nixon – 27/142 ; 2/3
Lee – 100/329 ; 43/11
Soriano – 110/290 ; 89/24
Well, we can see what the Astros and Cubs saw when they gave Lee and Soriano their contracts. A couple things that surprised me – Soriano has more HRs than Lee over the past three years, and Lee apparently has a little speed (though not nearly as much as Soriano). Although Drew has better rate stats, this chart helps quantify the impact that durable players like Lee and Soriano can have – as opposed to someone like Drew (or Nixon).
The big concern with Trot Nixon over the years has been his inability to hit left-handed pitching. Let’s look at the LHP/RHP splits for all four players:
2004-2006 (vs. left-handed pitching):
Player (AB) – BA/OBP/SLG - - OPS
Drew (354 AB) – 263/387/427 - - 814 OPS
Nixon (193 AB) – 207/325/295 - - 620 OPS
Lee (460 AB) – 293/362/500 - - 862 OPS
Soriano (465 AB) – 273/357/508 - - 865 OPS
2004-2006 (vs. right-handed pitching):
Player (AB) – BA/OBP/SLG - - OPS
Drew (910 AB) – 304/425/573 - - 998 OPS
Nixon (745 AB) – 297/378/471 - - 849 OPS
Lee (1373 AB) – 288/344/523 - - 867 OPS
Soriano (1427 AB) – 275/319/523 - - 842 OPS
Lee and Soriano are pretty consistent against both LHP and RHP. As we already knew, Nixon struggles against LHP. Drew shows an obvious difference between LHP and RHP - although he is a huge improvement over Nixon vs. LHP. Drew doesn’t slug well vs. LHP, but his OBP is still nice. Isolated against RHP (of which there is a lot more in these major leagues), Drew blows the others away.
It’s important to note, though, that Drew and Lee (outside of a short stint in Texas last year) played in the NL - and Nixon played in the AL. Soriano has played in both leagues the past three years. The OPS+ stat serves to standardize the raw OPS stat by comparing a player’s raw OPS vs. the league OPS i.e. an OPS+ above 100 is better than league average and OPS less than 100 is below league average. If one league’s pitching is worse than the other, than the hitters will naturally have higher OPS in that league. So OPS+ allows us to better compare hitters from both leagues:
OPS+ :
Player (career) – 3-yr average - - 2006/2005/2004
Drew (133) – 143 - - 125/148/158
Nixon (117) – 114 - - 98/112/123
Lee (113) – 119 - - 123/110/125
Soriano (115) – 114 - - 132/110/98
JD Drew is better than Nixon, Lee, and Soriano over their respective careers - and *far* better over the past three years. The one troubling thing with JD Drew is that he’s trending down over the past three years in OPS+ - although he was still better than Lee (albeit barely) in 2006. Soriano has trended very nicely over the past three years. Will he continue to soar, or has he peaked? The Cubs clearly hope it’s the former.
We’ve looked at a lot of different offensive numbers - mainly because offense is what gets the big contracts. However, we need to consider defense as well. While Nixon and Drew play RF (at least mostly), Lee and Soriano are LFs (at least for now). Still, let’s look at the Fielding Percentage and Range Factor numbers - specifically against league averages (as they play in different leagues):
career:
Player – FP/lgFP ; RF/lgRF
Drew – 983/981 ; 1.99/1.72
Nixon – 984/982 ; 1.87/1.82
Lee – 984/984 ; 1.89/1.70
Soriano – 969/984 ; 2.20/1.54
It’s fair to say that the first three all are above-average defensive outfielders. Drew appears to be better than Nixon, but I want to see JD Drew play that tough right field in Fenway Park as well as Trot Nixon has before asserting that Drew is indeed a better defensive outfielder than Nixon. As for Soriano, he had one year in the OF. His fielding percentage was poor – and although his range factor is off the charts, that can be misleading. In his only year in the LF, teams ran on him a lot – so he racked up a lot of assists, one of the components of range factor. The numbers of the other three players are more useful because they’ve spent their entire careers in the OF. Expect Soriano’s RF numbers to regress towards the mean (if not below it)… quickly.
One final group of stats to throw out – the Win Shares, which serves to attempt to calculate everything a player does to contribute to a team’s wins. Since it’s a counting stat, it inherently accounts for a player’s durability:
Win Shares :
Player – 3-yr average - - 2006/2005/2004
Drew – 23 - - 21/13/34
Nixon – 10 - - 10/16/4
Lee – 24 - - 25/24/24
Soriano – 21 - - 30/16/16
Over the past three years, JD Drew compares very favorably to Lee and Soriano – and blows Nixon away. As an aside, look at Carlos Lee’s consistency. If the salaries were hypothetically even for all three, I’d actually want Carlos Lee. But they’re not, and Lee’s already signed elsewhere. Drew’s getting paid less most likely because of the questions of his durability and character. I’m not worried about the character issue (more on this in a moment). The only thing that concerns me about Drew is the durability – though as the Win Shares chart shows, even playing in fewer games than Lee and Soriano, Drew contributes similarly over the course of a season (on average over the past three years).
Now, the big elephant in the room is the “character” question. Nobody can question Trot Nixon’s character. I haven’t heard anyone question Carlos Lee’s character. Soriano had some issues last year about moving to left field, but that seems to be behind him. Many people, people who are a lot closer to Drew than I am, have questioned JD Drew’s character. Is it possible that JD Drew will “behave”, where he apparently hasn’t for other organizations? Possible, but probably unlikely. Will his character issues detract - either a little or lot - from his production on the field? Possible - although it’s interesting to note that his teams have made the playoffs 2 of the last 3 seasons, and 4 of the past 6 seasons. So… how much did his character issues really have a negative impact on the teams he was on?
I love Trot Nixon. The emotional part of me was holding out hope that he somehow/someway would remain with the Red Sox. But the logical part of me sees an opportunity to greatly increase the production out of RF for the Sox this year. And at worse, Drew’s as good a player as Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano – with the one concern being durability (an admittedly important concern). Thus, the contract that Drew signs will be a good contract, since he’ll get paid less than Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano. We can get upset about the absolute salary numbers, but when Gary Matthews, Jr. turns one good year into $50 million dollars ($10 mil/yr) - and Juan Pierre gets $45 million dollars ($9 mil/yr)… we have to understand that the market this off-season is beyond loopy. Relatively speaking, JD Drew at $14 mil/yr is a good deal… in this off-season.
As for JD Drew’s refusal to play in Philly, as part of a negotiating ploy by his agent Scott Boras in an effort to undermine the entire ML draft…. that was a long time ago. Let’s not forget the ridiculous demands that Trot Nixon was making as a 1st-round draft choice for the Red Sox - including the insistence that he be called up to the major league roster well before he was ready (which I think hurt his development, fwiw). As already noted, though, once Nixon got to The Show, he’s been nothing but a terrific character guy. Questions continue to follow JD Drew. All that said, looking at the numbers, I submit that JD Drew will prove to be a very good acquisition for the Boston Red Sox.
Okay, I’m done now.
February 22nd, 2007 at 9:40 am
I think you are vastly underestimating the health concerns with Drew. There is a very good reason that Lee and Soriano were paid significantly more, and are both better players. There is a good reason why the timing of the agreement and the signed contract took 2 months. I am sure your counterargument will stress the merits of Wily Mo Pena, who will undoubtably play 50-60 games in right field this year, but if Pena is so great, why not use the $14 million elsewhere (like a first baseman or closer) and play him every day in right?
When the Dodgers were winning, there was very little talk about the attitude of JD Drew, but during 2006, when the team struggled, it was at the forefront of the discussion. Maybe the Dodgers didn’t have the leaders to handle Drew (although doesn’t Nomar and Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent play for them?) What happens if the Red Sox fall a few games back, and Drew has to go on the DL because his hammy is a little sore? It is not inconceivable that the Red Sox miss the playoffs….again.
5 years is ridiculous for a guy of Drew’s history. This contract is going to be an albatross in 2010. A broken down 36 year old making $14 million. The team couldn’t pony up the extra $2 M to sign Lee?
February 22nd, 2007 at 9:53 am
I don’t disagree that Carlos Lee would’ve been a nice option - and maybe a better one (focusing solely on the durability concerns)… and I mention that in my piece. My question with El Caballero is his ability to play RF in Boston… no small task. Perhaps he’d be fine, but Drew is clearly the better defender - and thus better equipped for the challenges of RF in Fenway.
As for 2010, the Sox can void the last two years of the deal (i.e. 2010 and 2011) if Drew indeed has injury issues:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2748850
As I proved above, Drew is at least as good a hitter - arguably better - than Lee and Soriano… but the injury (and character) issues kept him from getting a longer deal for more per-year salary. Looks like the Sox got a deal to me. I know Drew will have a better OPS+ going forward than Soriano, and I won’t be surprised if he meets or exceeds Lee’s output.
Finally, you’ve proven my point regarding Drew’s “character”. We wait for the results, and then we decide if his character is an issue or not. If his team doesn’t make the playoffs (only twice in the past six years, how many non-Yankees can say that?), then its “see, JD Drew’s character dragged the team down” - and when his team does make the playoffs (four of the past six years), somehow his “character” doesn’t come up. Hmmm… funny how that works. The old “effect and cause” approach, as opposed to the more logical “cause and affect” analysis.
February 22nd, 2007 at 10:41 am
Seems to me the Sox can only void the deal if he spends 35 days on the DL for the shoulder injury. If he strains a groin and misses time or pulls a hammy, they are still on the hook for the last 2 years.
My submission was they likely signed the worst of the three players as far as future production is concerned. You can use OPS+ numbers, but only if you tie it to playing time, and in that case it would be shocking if Drew outproduces Lee or Soriano in 2007 or beyond. Soriano’s contract was ridiculous by all standards (as was Lee’s and Drew’s), but if you are going to spend that kind of money, may as well upgrade to a better/safer player?
February 22nd, 2007 at 2:50 pm
I’ll grant that Carlos Lee would’ve been a safer choice, and I’ll allow it’s possible he’d prove to be a better choice. But in my mind, Drew is clearly preferable to Soriano in terms of all-around game. Look no further than Win Shares for proof. They spent less years and less money on Drew, who’s better than Soriano - and will be going forward.
As for strained groins and pulled hammys, what exactly makes JD Drew any more likely to get those common injuries than Lee or Soriano? Are you admitting that Drew plays hard at all times, as opposed to the other two (especially Lee) - and therefore has greater susceptibility to such injuries? I might agree… except that I believe Manny’s had groin/hammy issues in the past and… well… he’s never been asked to ease up cuz he’s just going too darn hard.
If the Sox were replacing Manny, Carlos Lee would be the choice. I’m not suggesting Lee is the hitter that Manny is, but he comes closest - and he could slide into LF defensively in Fenway, as “well” as Manny has. For RF in Fenway, and for that lineup - specifically, replacing Trot Nixon (LH bat) - JD Drew was the right choice. Carlos Lee may very well prove to be a better hitter than Drew going forward - but even if he is, it’ll be closer than most (including yourself) think. And given that defense, and preventing runs, is important - and that Drew will play RF *far* better than Lee would’ve been able to… Drew was the right choice.
Given the market that got Gary Freakin’ Mathews $10 mil/yr and Juan Pierre $9 mil/yr (yes… Juan Pierre), I’m very happy to have JD Drew at $14 mil per. And I want to go on record on two items:
(1) I will be surprised if Soriano outperforms Drew over the next 5-8 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares), and
(2) I will not be surprised if Drew outperforms Lee over the next 5-6 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares).
February 22nd, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Isn’t the higher the number, the better for win shares? Soriano was a 30 last year and Drew was a 21? There is really no statistical metric that can be used for Drew being superior to Soriano in 2006. And since Soriano is trending upward, and Drew is trending downward, it would seem to me that Soriano is a better bet in 2007. I guarentee he is a better bet in 2011.
JD Drew plays very hard. He dives for balls, he slams into walls. That isn’t the case with Lee for certain. I would guess Soriano would be a little more tentative in his new position, but I didn’t see enough of him last year to make a good evaluation. I am just saying that Drew is much more prone to injury, based upon his history. Maybe Lee has a higher threshold of pain….maybe it stems from the fact that once you tear up your knee it is never the same.
Clearly there need to be pounders on anything that is “on record”
February 23rd, 2007 at 12:06 am
So… you want to use one year to compare Soriano to Drew in terms of Win Shares - but a whole history to compare Drew to the other two regarding injury concerns? Nice consistency.
Clearly Soriano was far better than Drew in 2006 - cuz Soriano had a career year in his FA year. Good for him, it clearly worked. The Cubs *way* overpaid. The previous two years he got 16 and… 16. I’ll pounder that in 2007 he’s closer to 16 WS than 30 WS i.e. I say he’s gets 23 or less WS, you say he gets 24 or more. Heck, I’ll do that every year of his Cubs contract, if you’d like.
I’ll gladly put out an annual pounder on Win Shares for Soriano vs. Drew - for as long as Drew’s in Boston. As for Drew and Lee, I’m conceding Lee *should* do better - but I think Drew could surprise. Let me know how you want to Pounder that… perhaps you give me som win shares. How about annual Pounder on Win Shares for Lee (-4 WS) vs. Drew?
Let me know.
February 27th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Good on all the pounders. I am not sure if this is easier money than Wood/Prior, but I’ll take what I can get nonetheless.
February 28th, 2007 at 6:15 am
When Soriano goes on the DL while Drew goes to the ASG, that’ll be me laughing all the way to the bank… er, Pounders. (Well… that’s an exaggeration of optimism - but that’s me, that’s what I do.)