Comments on: Starting in RF for Boston: JD Drew http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/ People don't think it be like it is, but it do. Wed, 08 Feb 2012 21:53:30 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.7 by: Cliffy http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-72 Wed, 28 Feb 2007 11:15:02 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-72 When Soriano goes on the DL while Drew goes to the ASG, that'll be me laughing all the way to the bank... er, Pounders. (Well... that's an exaggeration of optimism - but that's me, that's what I do.) When Soriano goes on the DL while Drew goes to the ASG, that’ll be me laughing all the way to the bank… er, Pounders. (Well… that’s an exaggeration of optimism - but that’s me, that’s what I do.)

]]> by: shtiny http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-63 Tue, 27 Feb 2007 16:43:37 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-63 Good on all the pounders. I am not sure if this is easier money than Wood/Prior, but I'll take what I can get nonetheless. Good on all the pounders. I am not sure if this is easier money than Wood/Prior, but I’ll take what I can get nonetheless.

]]> by: Cliffy http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-48 Fri, 23 Feb 2007 05:06:24 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-48 So... you want to use one year to compare Soriano to Drew in terms of Win Shares - but a whole history to compare Drew to the other two regarding injury concerns? Nice consistency. Clearly Soriano was far better than Drew in 2006 - cuz Soriano had a career year in his FA year. Good for him, it clearly worked. The Cubs *way* overpaid. The previous two years he got 16 and... 16. I'll pounder that in 2007 he's closer to 16 WS than 30 WS i.e. I say he's gets 23 or less WS, you say he gets 24 or more. Heck, I'll do that every year of his Cubs contract, if you'd like. I'll gladly put out an annual pounder on Win Shares for Soriano vs. Drew - for as long as Drew's in Boston. As for Drew and Lee, I'm conceding Lee *should* do better - but I think Drew could surprise. Let me know how you want to Pounder that... perhaps you give me som win shares. How about annual Pounder on Win Shares for Lee (-4 WS) vs. Drew? Let me know. So… you want to use one year to compare Soriano to Drew in terms of Win Shares - but a whole history to compare Drew to the other two regarding injury concerns? Nice consistency.

Clearly Soriano was far better than Drew in 2006 - cuz Soriano had a career year in his FA year. Good for him, it clearly worked. The Cubs *way* overpaid. The previous two years he got 16 and… 16. I’ll pounder that in 2007 he’s closer to 16 WS than 30 WS i.e. I say he’s gets 23 or less WS, you say he gets 24 or more. Heck, I’ll do that every year of his Cubs contract, if you’d like.

I’ll gladly put out an annual pounder on Win Shares for Soriano vs. Drew - for as long as Drew’s in Boston. As for Drew and Lee, I’m conceding Lee *should* do better - but I think Drew could surprise. Let me know how you want to Pounder that… perhaps you give me som win shares. How about annual Pounder on Win Shares for Lee (-4 WS) vs. Drew?

Let me know.

]]> by: shtiny http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-47 Thu, 22 Feb 2007 23:06:13 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-47 Isn't the higher the number, the better for win shares? Soriano was a 30 last year and Drew was a 21? There is really no statistical metric that can be used for Drew being superior to Soriano in 2006. And since Soriano is trending upward, and Drew is trending downward, it would seem to me that Soriano is a better bet in 2007. I guarentee he is a better bet in 2011. JD Drew plays very hard. He dives for balls, he slams into walls. That isn't the case with Lee for certain. I would guess Soriano would be a little more tentative in his new position, but I didn't see enough of him last year to make a good evaluation. I am just saying that Drew is much more prone to injury, based upon his history. Maybe Lee has a higher threshold of pain....maybe it stems from the fact that once you tear up your knee it is never the same. Clearly there need to be pounders on anything that is "on record" Isn’t the higher the number, the better for win shares? Soriano was a 30 last year and Drew was a 21? There is really no statistical metric that can be used for Drew being superior to Soriano in 2006. And since Soriano is trending upward, and Drew is trending downward, it would seem to me that Soriano is a better bet in 2007. I guarentee he is a better bet in 2011.

JD Drew plays very hard. He dives for balls, he slams into walls. That isn’t the case with Lee for certain. I would guess Soriano would be a little more tentative in his new position, but I didn’t see enough of him last year to make a good evaluation. I am just saying that Drew is much more prone to injury, based upon his history. Maybe Lee has a higher threshold of pain….maybe it stems from the fact that once you tear up your knee it is never the same.

Clearly there need to be pounders on anything that is “on record”

]]> by: Cliffy http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-43 Thu, 22 Feb 2007 19:50:11 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-43 I'll grant that Carlos Lee would've been a safer choice, and I'll allow it's possible he'd prove to be a better choice. But in my mind, Drew is clearly preferable to Soriano in terms of all-around game. Look no further than Win Shares for proof. They spent less years and less money on Drew, who's better than Soriano - and will be going forward. As for strained groins and pulled hammys, what exactly makes JD Drew any more likely to get those common injuries than Lee or Soriano? Are you admitting that Drew plays hard at all times, as opposed to the other two (especially Lee) - and therefore has greater susceptibility to such injuries? I might agree... except that I believe Manny's had groin/hammy issues in the past and... well... he's never been asked to ease up cuz he's just going too darn hard. If the Sox were replacing Manny, Carlos Lee would be the choice. I'm not suggesting Lee is the hitter that Manny is, but he comes closest - and he could slide into LF defensively in Fenway, as "well" as Manny has. For RF in Fenway, and for that lineup - specifically, replacing Trot Nixon (LH bat) - JD Drew was the right choice. Carlos Lee may very well prove to be a better hitter than Drew going forward - but even if he is, it'll be closer than most (including yourself) think. And given that defense, and preventing runs, is important - and that Drew will play RF *far* better than Lee would've been able to... Drew was the right choice. Given the market that got Gary Freakin' Mathews $10 mil/yr and Juan Pierre $9 mil/yr (yes... Juan Pierre), I'm very happy to have JD Drew at $14 mil per. And I want to go on record on two items: (1) I will be surprised if Soriano outperforms Drew over the next 5-8 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares), and (2) I will not be surprised if Drew outperforms Lee over the next 5-6 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares). I’ll grant that Carlos Lee would’ve been a safer choice, and I’ll allow it’s possible he’d prove to be a better choice. But in my mind, Drew is clearly preferable to Soriano in terms of all-around game. Look no further than Win Shares for proof. They spent less years and less money on Drew, who’s better than Soriano - and will be going forward.

As for strained groins and pulled hammys, what exactly makes JD Drew any more likely to get those common injuries than Lee or Soriano? Are you admitting that Drew plays hard at all times, as opposed to the other two (especially Lee) - and therefore has greater susceptibility to such injuries? I might agree… except that I believe Manny’s had groin/hammy issues in the past and… well… he’s never been asked to ease up cuz he’s just going too darn hard.

If the Sox were replacing Manny, Carlos Lee would be the choice. I’m not suggesting Lee is the hitter that Manny is, but he comes closest - and he could slide into LF defensively in Fenway, as “well” as Manny has. For RF in Fenway, and for that lineup - specifically, replacing Trot Nixon (LH bat) - JD Drew was the right choice. Carlos Lee may very well prove to be a better hitter than Drew going forward - but even if he is, it’ll be closer than most (including yourself) think. And given that defense, and preventing runs, is important - and that Drew will play RF *far* better than Lee would’ve been able to… Drew was the right choice.

Given the market that got Gary Freakin’ Mathews $10 mil/yr and Juan Pierre $9 mil/yr (yes… Juan Pierre), I’m very happy to have JD Drew at $14 mil per. And I want to go on record on two items:
(1) I will be surprised if Soriano outperforms Drew over the next 5-8 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares), and
(2) I will not be surprised if Drew outperforms Lee over the next 5-6 years (as measured in OPS+ and Win Shares).

]]> by: shtiny http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-41 Thu, 22 Feb 2007 15:41:44 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-41 Seems to me the Sox can only void the deal if he spends 35 days on the DL for the shoulder injury. If he strains a groin and misses time or pulls a hammy, they are still on the hook for the last 2 years. My submission was they likely signed the worst of the three players as far as future production is concerned. You can use OPS+ numbers, but only if you tie it to playing time, and in that case it would be shocking if Drew outproduces Lee or Soriano in 2007 or beyond. Soriano's contract was ridiculous by all standards (as was Lee's and Drew's), but if you are going to spend that kind of money, may as well upgrade to a better/safer player? Seems to me the Sox can only void the deal if he spends 35 days on the DL for the shoulder injury. If he strains a groin and misses time or pulls a hammy, they are still on the hook for the last 2 years.

My submission was they likely signed the worst of the three players as far as future production is concerned. You can use OPS+ numbers, but only if you tie it to playing time, and in that case it would be shocking if Drew outproduces Lee or Soriano in 2007 or beyond. Soriano’s contract was ridiculous by all standards (as was Lee’s and Drew’s), but if you are going to spend that kind of money, may as well upgrade to a better/safer player?

]]> by: Cliffy http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-40 Thu, 22 Feb 2007 14:53:48 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-40 I don't disagree that Carlos Lee would've been a nice option - and maybe a better one (focusing solely on the durability concerns)... and I mention that in my piece. My question with El Caballero is his ability to play RF in Boston... no small task. Perhaps he'd be fine, but Drew is clearly the better defender - and thus better equipped for the challenges of RF in Fenway. As for 2010, the Sox can void the last two years of the deal (i.e. 2010 and 2011) if Drew indeed has injury issues: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2748850 As I proved above, Drew is at least as good a hitter - arguably better - than Lee and Soriano... but the injury (and character) issues kept him from getting a longer deal for more per-year salary. Looks like the Sox got a deal to me. I know Drew will have a better OPS+ going forward than Soriano, and I won't be surprised if he meets or exceeds Lee's output. Finally, you've proven my point regarding Drew's "character". We wait for the results, and then we decide if his character is an issue or not. If his team doesn't make the playoffs (only twice in the past six years, how many non-Yankees can say that?), then its "see, JD Drew's character dragged the team down" - and when his team does make the playoffs (four of the past six years), somehow his "character" doesn't come up. Hmmm... funny how that works. The old "effect and cause" approach, as opposed to the more logical "cause and affect" analysis. I don’t disagree that Carlos Lee would’ve been a nice option - and maybe a better one (focusing solely on the durability concerns)… and I mention that in my piece. My question with El Caballero is his ability to play RF in Boston… no small task. Perhaps he’d be fine, but Drew is clearly the better defender - and thus better equipped for the challenges of RF in Fenway.

As for 2010, the Sox can void the last two years of the deal (i.e. 2010 and 2011) if Drew indeed has injury issues:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2748850

As I proved above, Drew is at least as good a hitter - arguably better - than Lee and Soriano… but the injury (and character) issues kept him from getting a longer deal for more per-year salary. Looks like the Sox got a deal to me. I know Drew will have a better OPS+ going forward than Soriano, and I won’t be surprised if he meets or exceeds Lee’s output.

Finally, you’ve proven my point regarding Drew’s “character”. We wait for the results, and then we decide if his character is an issue or not. If his team doesn’t make the playoffs (only twice in the past six years, how many non-Yankees can say that?), then its “see, JD Drew’s character dragged the team down” - and when his team does make the playoffs (four of the past six years), somehow his “character” doesn’t come up. Hmmm… funny how that works. The old “effect and cause” approach, as opposed to the more logical “cause and affect” analysis.

]]> by: shtiny http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-39 Thu, 22 Feb 2007 14:40:28 +0000 http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/starting-in-rf-for-boston-jd-drew/#comment-39 I think you are vastly underestimating the health concerns with Drew. There is a very good reason that Lee and Soriano were paid significantly more, and are both better players. There is a good reason why the timing of the agreement and the signed contract took 2 months. I am sure your counterargument will stress the merits of Wily Mo Pena, who will undoubtably play 50-60 games in right field this year, but if Pena is so great, why not use the $14 million elsewhere (like a first baseman or closer) and play him every day in right? When the Dodgers were winning, there was very little talk about the attitude of JD Drew, but during 2006, when the team struggled, it was at the forefront of the discussion. Maybe the Dodgers didn't have the leaders to handle Drew (although doesn't Nomar and Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent play for them?) What happens if the Red Sox fall a few games back, and Drew has to go on the DL because his hammy is a little sore? It is not inconceivable that the Red Sox miss the playoffs....again. 5 years is ridiculous for a guy of Drew's history. This contract is going to be an albatross in 2010. A broken down 36 year old making $14 million. The team couldn't pony up the extra $2 M to sign Lee? I think you are vastly underestimating the health concerns with Drew. There is a very good reason that Lee and Soriano were paid significantly more, and are both better players. There is a good reason why the timing of the agreement and the signed contract took 2 months. I am sure your counterargument will stress the merits of Wily Mo Pena, who will undoubtably play 50-60 games in right field this year, but if Pena is so great, why not use the $14 million elsewhere (like a first baseman or closer) and play him every day in right?

When the Dodgers were winning, there was very little talk about the attitude of JD Drew, but during 2006, when the team struggled, it was at the forefront of the discussion. Maybe the Dodgers didn’t have the leaders to handle Drew (although doesn’t Nomar and Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent play for them?) What happens if the Red Sox fall a few games back, and Drew has to go on the DL because his hammy is a little sore? It is not inconceivable that the Red Sox miss the playoffs….again.

5 years is ridiculous for a guy of Drew’s history. This contract is going to be an albatross in 2010. A broken down 36 year old making $14 million. The team couldn’t pony up the extra $2 M to sign Lee?

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