Super Bowl 43
January 21st, 2009 by Tank
Pittsburgh is favored by 7 over Arizona; what does the OGS make of this? I still can’t quite get my head around the idea of using the terms “Super Bowl” and “Cardinals” in the same sentence, so I’m having trouble reaching a conclusion on which side I like - I intuitively favor Pittsburgh but wonder if I’m selling Arizona short. There were extended periods of Sunday night’s game - like the last four minutes of the first half - when the Steelers just stacked up enough mental errors to almost lose the game. What say you - which side would you take?
January 26th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
I’ve got the Cards and the points - and I give the Cards a decent chance at winning outright. To me, it comes down to the Steelers blitz. First, they will blitz cuz… well, that’s who they are, that’s what they do. Second, nobody can cover the Cardinal WRs man-to-man, especially if Warner is going to be given all day long to put the ball on a frozen rope into the proverbial key hole.
Warner has been around long enough, and (as long as he’s not on his back) can be accurate enough to pick apart a defense that blitzes and exposes itself (”and you don’t want us exposing ourselves!”… random movie quote, huge kudos to anyone who can place it - hint: it was one of the few comedic sequels that actually came close to living up to the original… but I digress…).
If the Steelers can get to Warner often enough on the blitz, the Steelers should win. If they blitz and don’t get to him (at least, not often enough), the Cards will win. I think it’s just that simple.
That said, to me… the Cards defense is a potential wild card. Let’s be honest: Big Ben and the Steelers offense are… who we think they are. They’re average. They can run the ball fairly well. They do have some playmakers at WR - and Big Ben can make plays out of the pocket. However, they will make mistakes - most notably Big Ben - and the offense can certainly be contained. The Cardinals defense ranked near the bottom of the league in regular season stats. That is in large part due to a number of games (mainly on the East Coast) where they just didn’t show up… Pats and Jets most notably, though not only. However, perhaps akin to the Colts (rush) defense a couple years ago, they have showed up in the playoffs. In the first two rounds, they contained the top two RBs in the NFC (in Michael Turner and D’Angelo Williams). They made rookie sensation Matt Ryan look… well, like a rookie. And they made veteran (and Super Bowl runner-up) Jake Delhomme look… well, like a guy who belongs on the bench… for the winless high school JV team. Against Philly, Westbrook was clearly hurt - but they made McNabb look horrible in the first half… and then in trying to protect their huge lead, made McNabb look like Montana in the second half, admittedly. However, on the last drive of the game when they had to hold… they did.
Rogers-Cromartie intrigues me… and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him deliver a Pick Six since (a) he’s a terrific DB with great hands and blazing speed, and (b) Big Ben will undoubtedly give him a couple INT opportunities. In other words, I submit it’s *possible* that the Steelers blitz is fairly effective (i.e. keeps the Cards to between 14 and 21 pts) and the Steelers *still* lose thanks to the Cardinals defense.
I see *no* way that the Steelers win the game thanks to their offense. Thus, that likely means you should count on the Steelers winning the game… thanks to their offense. After all, what do I know? If I could actually pick games with any consistency, I’d be doing that for a living rather than selling buckets.
So in conclusion: I’ll Pounder that the Cards cover the 7-pt spread. On 3-1 Pounder odds, I’ll take the Cards outright. With the over/under on Fitzgerald TDs set at 1-1/2, I’ll take the over. I’ll pounder that the Cards score at least one rushing TD. Finally, with the over/under on Big Ben turnovers at 1-1/2, I’ll take the over there as well.
Rebuttal?
January 28th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
I’ll be brief, like Cliffy… Cardinals and points for me. Oh, but I gotta have some of that Pittsburgh D not allowing a Cardinals Rush TD.
January 29th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
I’ll take PIT, No prop bets, I’m on your side with those…
February 1st, 2009 at 5:52 pm
I am also on the Cards… I have some non-pounder related bets on the money line.. so there you go.
I’ll take the Fitzy under 1.5 TDs, and I will take the under on the Rushing TD as well…. Boldin has a HUGE game
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:06 am
So I hit on the Cards with the points and Fitzy’s two (awesome) TDs - missed on the rushing TDs. I just figured they’d get down inside the five (like they did a couple times), and they’d try to “trick” the Steelers D by spreading it out, and then going with an inside handoff to Hightower (a tough runner, he). Benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I would’ve preferred that play call at the end of the first half instead of the attempt at the quick slant that Harrison (and the Steelers D) was all over. I don’t recall if the Cards had any timeouts left, which probably took a running play out of the mix… with only 18 seconds to play.
Course, I also had 0-0 in a box pool… so I was hoping the Cards would settle for the FG there - making it a 10-10 game at the half, thereby putting some coin in my pocket. But no-o-o-o-o-o-o-o!!! And then in the middle of the fourth quarter, the score is 20-14. I’m thinking… okay, I need a 30-20 final score to win this one… cuz if it’s 20-20, they go to OT and this game will not end in a tie. I saw little liklihood of a Steelers 30, Cards 20 final score… so I reasoned that I needed two Cardinal TDs and a Card safety. Cards punt it to the two-yard line (great play, btw), the flag puts the Steelers at the 1 - and eventually the Cards *indeed* get the safety. It’s 23-16… hey, we’re on our way. Then the quick slant to Fitzy, he takes it all the way… 23-20 Cards! Hey, maybe we’re onto something. Okay, okay… INT Machine Big Ben has the ball on 1st and 20 at around the 10 yard line with a little over two minutes to play… let’s see a desperation pass resulting in a late Pick Six… and Cliffy gets the Big Money on the Final Score!!! Oh… and the Cards win!!! Everyone’s happy!!! (Well, if “everyone” means Lori and me.) But alas, I… er, the Cards fell short.
Fwiw, all day yesterday I was regretting the Fitzy 1.5 TD over/under prop bet… like you, I came to figure that they’d take Fitzy out… leaving *Boldin* to have the big day. Nope. They controlled him in the first half - but he exploded in the second half. What a great, great player.
Nobody took me up on the Big Ben turnover prop… good thing, I was off on that too.