Super Bowl Upsets
How does Super Bowl 42 rank in terms of Super Bowl upsets?
Based on the obvious market-based indicator - point spreads - it’s tied for third. The biggest underdog by point spread to win was the New York Jets in SB 3, who were 18-point underdogs to the Colts. Second place goes to the Pats in SB 36, who beat the Rams despite being 14-point underdogs. This year’s Giants got 12 1/2 points, tying them with the Chiefs in SB 4 who defeated the Vikings. Although technically, I’m not sure defeating the Vikings in a consequential game qualifies as an upset under any circumstances.
Another way to look at it is to take account of the differential in regular season records - with a regular-season record of 10-6, a cursory review (which is all I feel like making at this moment) suggests that the Giants are the first team to face a Super Bowl opponent with 6 fewer losses.
Interestingly, upsets by big underdogs (12 points or more) are relatively common in the Super Bowl. Nine teams have entered the big game getting 12 or more points - bear in mind that getting 12 points is equivalent to the market saying you have just a 1-in-7 chance of victory - and four of the nine have won outright. And the heavy favorites have only covered in three of the nine Bowls. Only 42 observations in the pool, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but interesting.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:24 am
The Jets-Colts upset is, and in my mind always will be, the greatest SB upset. Not only were they the biggest underdog, but keep in mind they were the inferior team from the inferior *league* - still AFL/NFL at that time. Course, as Tank noted, the “inferior” AFL then won SB IV as well (despite the big underdog status) - and the mighty NFL realized that, “Hmmm… maybe these guys can play a little”… and the merger happened.
But *nobody* gave the Jets a chance… no… bod…y.
Behind that, I would put this Giants-Pats on par with Pats-Rams, if only for the similarity of the respective teams seemingly proving the old adage that “Defense wins Championships” and (usually) a great defense will stop a great offense. But I’d still put both behind the Chiefs/Vikings SB 4 - simply cuz, again, I sincerely doubt too many people really gave the Chiefs a chance - being from the “inferior” league, and all.
As we all know, point spreads are designed to get even money from both sides - so the book collects its vig and makes a profit, regardless of outcome. As such, we need to recognize that Vegas, et al, set the lines with *that* in mind - not necessarily with any analytical conclusion of the true relative merits of the teams.
The Giants beat three division winners on the road, including the two that everyone expected to compete in the NFC Championship Game for the “right” to be roadkill for the Pats. The Giants *are* a very good team - most importantly, with a very good defense. Yes, I predicted a Pats blowout cuz… well, I’m an idiot - but moreso, cuz I really, really, really wanted to believe it would happen. I ignored that the Pats hadn’t covered a spread since October i.e. public perception was not in line with actual performance regarding the Pats recent results.
I heard someone suggest that the Packers would’ve been fodder for the Pats cuz they would’ve not been able to get to Brady like the Giants did - but their stubborn insistence to allow Plax to have a career day prevented that. I dunno about that - but I do know that the Giants defense played great, but not necessarily above their heads… if I’d chosen to try to take an unbiased look at it. Many people were making the case for the Giants to at least make it a game (i.e. less than 12-pt margin), and some even picked them outright… about the same amount that picked the Pats, although I submit fewer thought the Pats would compete with Rams than thought the Giants would compete with the Pats.
In short, to me: 1. Jets over Colts, 2. Chiefs over Vikings, 3. Pats over Rams, 4. Giants over Pats… but I wouldn’t quibble if someone insisted on switching my #3 and #4.