Tavarez opponents
Yes, I’m fixating on Julian Tavarez… deal with it. As I saw him dominate Barry Zito in his last start, it occurred to me that he’s faced a good amount of staff #1s in his 12 games this year. I’ll leave it to you to determine which of this group you’d consider to be “aces”, but all are listed as the #1s on their team depth charts: Millwood, Halladay (twice), Wang, Santana, Haren, and Zito. His team’s record against those guys?
Three wins, four losses (and Tavarez personally 2-3). With him starting, his team (Tavarez decision) beat Wang (W) and Zito (W); lost to Millwood (L), Santana (L), and Haren (ND); and split his two games against Halladay (ND, L). Put another way, in the five games he faced non-#1 pitchers, his team is 4-1 (Tavarez is 2-1).
Thru June 16, the 10 AL pitchers he faced (i.e. counted Halladay twice) combine for a 4.09 ERA (vs. 4.41 lgAvg, i.e. 108 ERA+) and a 1.28 WHIP (vs. 1.40 lgAvg), as well as a 44-34 w/l record (.564 win%). The 2 NL pitchers he faced combine for a 4.17 ERA (vs. 4.17 lgAvg) and a 1.40 WHIP (vs. 1.36 lgAvg), as well as a 10-8 record (.556 win%). Overall his opponents currently combine for a 4.11 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, as well as a 54-42 w/l record (.563 win%).
The overall opponent numbers aren’t overwhelming. But then consider Tavarez’s overall numbers as the Sox “#5 starter”: 12GS, 67.0IP, 4.97ERA, 1.42WHIP, 4-4 W/L. In his career (mostly as a reliever), he’s got a 4.37ERA and a 1.47WHIP. Given that he faced the opponent’s “#1 pitcher” in seven of his twelve games, I submit he’s doing pretty well to have his team 7-5 in his starts.
Clearly he needs his team to score some runs for him - in general, and given his ERA. Interesting to note that his run support averages 4.30 rpg, same as Schilling, only slightly ahead of Wakefield (3.92) and far behind Beckett (8.18) and Dice-K (6.93). Perhaps the relatively low run support is a measure of the pitchers that Tavarez (and his offense) have faced… all the more reason to be pleased with Tavarez’s performance this year.
He’s still just holding down the fort until Jon Lester is healthy - but clearly the Sox are in no hurry to rush Lester back until they’re 100% sure he’s 100% healthy and ready to go. Hideki Okajima is widely (and understandably) credited with being the key “unexpected” reason for the Sox fast start to what is currently the best winning percentage in MLB. However, Julian Tavarez deserves a tip of the cap as well… considering the specific competition he’s faced thusfar.
Given the two Pounders (and counting) that he’s secured for me, make no mistake that his contribution is both tangible and appreciated in this little corner of Red Sox Nation.
Okay, I’m done now.
June 17th, 2007 at 1:42 am
Btw (to pass some more time), I looked at the W/L splits based on opposing starter’s ERA (as of June 16) - listed by category, Sox W/L (and Tavarez specific W/L):
sub-2 ERA, 0-1 (0-0); 2+ ERA, 7-4 (4-4)
sub-3 ERA, 1-2 (1-1); 3+ ERA, 6-3 (3-3)
sub-4 ERA, 3-3 (2-2); 4+ ERA, 4-2 (2-2)
sub-5 ERA, 5-4 (3-3); 5+ ERA, 2-1 (1-1)
Interesting symmetry in his personal W/L record in this breakdown - but also fairly consistent results in the “number +” team W/L records i.e. outside of facing Danny Haren and his 1.68 ERA, the Sox tend to win roughly twice as many Tavarez starts as they lose, in every other ERA “category”. Read into it what you will, but it’s funny it’s worked out that way to this point, at the very least.