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	<title>Comments on: Tim Wakefield - he&#8217;s at it again</title>
	<link>http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/tim-wakefield-hes-at-it-again/</link>
	<description>People don't think it be like it is, but it do.</description>
	<pubDate>Sun, 20 May 2012 09:07:23 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>by: Cliffy</title>
		<link>http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/tim-wakefield-hes-at-it-again/#comment-1668</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 16:56:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/tim-wakefield-hes-at-it-again/#comment-1668</guid>
					<description>In fairness to the Sox, Papelbon wasn't going to sign a long-term deal unless the Sox overpaid.  It's pretty clear that he is intent on hitting FA to maximize his income.  Absolutely nothing wrong that, that's his choice.  I think that given the general life expectancy of a closer, Papelbon would be well served to get a guaranteed deal now in the tens of millions and know he's set himself and his ancestors up for life... but that doesn't mean he *has* to.  He expects to be one of the few to have a long and successful career... at least long enough to hit FA (at least once).

On the Sox side, they're not going to overpay for a closer.  They're just not.  The interesting thing will be the development of Daniel Bard.  If he flops and they don't feel they have any else organizationally to turn to, they'll be more inclined to pay market price to keep Papelbon (though I personally still doubt they would, fwiw).  If Bard (and/or another organizational prospect develops), then there's no way they'll pay Papelbon.

Now, I am tantalized with Drew's potential like Theo, et al, clearly were/are - but no surprise, he gets hurt... like he did before they signed him.  Still, the Drew contract (5yr/$70 mil) is still *far* superior to the Julio Lugo FA deal (4yr/$36 mil).  At least Drew will occasionally play like a guy "worth" $14 mil/yr... Lugo has never, and IMHO, will never play like a guy even remotely close to worth $9 mil/yr.

Extend that further, as well as the Sox have done with pitcher contracts (Danny points out Wakefield and Lester - but don't forget they extended Beckett at $10 mil per back in 2006, at a time when he was pitching poorly i.e. he was more likely to take a "lower" deal.. based on his 2007 postseason alone, never mind his 2007 regular season, that's a steal)... as well as they've done with pitchers, they've sucked with SSs.  Lugo is by far the worst of the lot - but they gave up on Renteria a year after giving him a 4yr/$40 million contract (indeed, they were still paying a portion of that contract through last season, just to get rid of him when they did).

I loved Alex Gonzalez - easily the best defensive SS I've ever seen in a Sox uniform, and maybe the best defensive SS the Sox have ever had in their history... and he would chip in offensively from time to time as well.  Rather than sign him for 2 or 3 years at roughly $2-3 mil/yr, they went after Lugo.  I never, ever undersood it - and never will.

And of course Renteria replaced Cabrera... didn't understand that one either.  Cabrera famously came in the summer of 2004, replacing the beloved Nomah.  He clearly thrived in the environment (and not everyone can - see Renteria, Edgar), and I'm not sure was that much lesser an option going forward then Renteria.  But like Rich Semiraro with other guy's girlfriends, Theo continuously fell in love with other team's shortstops.  I don't get it.

Now Lugo is back - and I'd rather they played Nick Green.  Yes, that's right... Nick... Green... is better than Julio Lugo.  I was upset when the Sox dropped Cora and kept Green.  I loved Cora in his role, and didn't expect Green to do as well (or better).  Green has done the job since Lugo and Lowrie went down to injury.  Now, I don't think Nick Green is the long-term answer... indeed, I *know* he's not.  But in the short term, until Lowrie's back, Green is better than Lugo.  Trust me.

But I digress.... I've really gotta get a Tim Wakefield jersey at some point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In fairness to the Sox, Papelbon wasn&#8217;t going to sign a long-term deal unless the Sox overpaid.  It&#8217;s pretty clear that he is intent on hitting FA to maximize his income.  Absolutely nothing wrong that, that&#8217;s his choice.  I think that given the general life expectancy of a closer, Papelbon would be well served to get a guaranteed deal now in the tens of millions and know he&#8217;s set himself and his ancestors up for life&#8230; but that doesn&#8217;t mean he *has* to.  He expects to be one of the few to have a long and successful career&#8230; at least long enough to hit FA (at least once).</p>
<p>On the Sox side, they&#8217;re not going to overpay for a closer.  They&#8217;re just not.  The interesting thing will be the development of Daniel Bard.  If he flops and they don&#8217;t feel they have any else organizationally to turn to, they&#8217;ll be more inclined to pay market price to keep Papelbon (though I personally still doubt they would, fwiw).  If Bard (and/or another organizational prospect develops), then there&#8217;s no way they&#8217;ll pay Papelbon.</p>
<p>Now, I am tantalized with Drew&#8217;s potential like Theo, et al, clearly were/are - but no surprise, he gets hurt&#8230; like he did before they signed him.  Still, the Drew contract (5yr/$70 mil) is still *far* superior to the Julio Lugo FA deal (4yr/$36 mil).  At least Drew will occasionally play like a guy &#8220;worth&#8221; $14 mil/yr&#8230; Lugo has never, and IMHO, will never play like a guy even remotely close to worth $9 mil/yr.</p>
<p>Extend that further, as well as the Sox have done with pitcher contracts (Danny points out Wakefield and Lester - but don&#8217;t forget they extended Beckett at $10 mil per back in 2006, at a time when he was pitching poorly i.e. he was more likely to take a &#8220;lower&#8221; deal.. based on his 2007 postseason alone, never mind his 2007 regular season, that&#8217;s a steal)&#8230; as well as they&#8217;ve done with pitchers, they&#8217;ve sucked with SSs.  Lugo is by far the worst of the lot - but they gave up on Renteria a year after giving him a 4yr/$40 million contract (indeed, they were still paying a portion of that contract through last season, just to get rid of him when they did).</p>
<p>I loved Alex Gonzalez - easily the best defensive SS I&#8217;ve ever seen in a Sox uniform, and maybe the best defensive SS the Sox have ever had in their history&#8230; and he would chip in offensively from time to time as well.  Rather than sign him for 2 or 3 years at roughly $2-3 mil/yr, they went after Lugo.  I never, ever undersood it - and never will.</p>
<p>And of course Renteria replaced Cabrera&#8230; didn&#8217;t understand that one either.  Cabrera famously came in the summer of 2004, replacing the beloved Nomah.  He clearly thrived in the environment (and not everyone can - see Renteria, Edgar), and I&#8217;m not sure was that much lesser an option going forward then Renteria.  But like Rich Semiraro with other guy&#8217;s girlfriends, Theo continuously fell in love with other team&#8217;s shortstops.  I don&#8217;t get it.</p>
<p>Now Lugo is back - and I&#8217;d rather they played Nick Green.  Yes, that&#8217;s right&#8230; Nick&#8230; Green&#8230; is better than Julio Lugo.  I was upset when the Sox dropped Cora and kept Green.  I loved Cora in his role, and didn&#8217;t expect Green to do as well (or better).  Green has done the job since Lugo and Lowrie went down to injury.  Now, I don&#8217;t think Nick Green is the long-term answer&#8230; indeed, I *know* he&#8217;s not.  But in the short term, until Lowrie&#8217;s back, Green is better than Lugo.  Trust me.</p>
<p>But I digress&#8230;. I&#8217;ve really gotta get a Tim Wakefield jersey at some point.
</p>
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		<title>by: shtiny</title>
		<link>http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/tim-wakefield-hes-at-it-again/#comment-1666</link>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2009 14:34:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/tim-wakefield-hes-at-it-again/#comment-1666</guid>
					<description>Buried in this post is the contract status of Wakefield.  $4 M might be realistic this year due to the depressed market, but that is a deeply discounted salary for this type of pitcher.  He has thrown an average  188 innings the last 6 years.  Those types of pitchers made $10 M from 2005-2008.   Outside of JD Drew, and the failed negotiations with Papelbon, the Red Sox have done a tremendous job attacting free agents at a reasonable price, and signing their own for below market value.

Jon Lester probably left 10-15 M on the table.  Same with Youk and Pedroia.  

Thanks for the HOF reference... needed a good laugh this morning</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Buried in this post is the contract status of Wakefield.  $4 M might be realistic this year due to the depressed market, but that is a deeply discounted salary for this type of pitcher.  He has thrown an average  188 innings the last 6 years.  Those types of pitchers made $10 M from 2005-2008.   Outside of JD Drew, and the failed negotiations with Papelbon, the Red Sox have done a tremendous job attacting free agents at a reasonable price, and signing their own for below market value.</p>
<p>Jon Lester probably left 10-15 M on the table.  Same with Youk and Pedroia.  </p>
<p>Thanks for the HOF reference&#8230; needed a good laugh this morning
</p>
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