Wild Card Sunday picks
Ignoring spreads, straight picks: I’ve got the Bucs and the Titans. Let me ’splain…
Titans at Chargers - as I understand it, the Titans will be without their top three WRs (such as they are), two of their starting offensive linemen, and both their starting RB (LenDale White) and their starting QB (Vince Young) are questionable with injuries. This offense is less than explosive when all hands are on deck, and they could be without up to seven starters on offense for this game.
Vince Young has clearly taken a step back in year 2 - seemingly having lost the mojo that brought his Longhorn team a collegiate title (squarely on his shoulders) two years ago, and his Titan team an exciting finish to last season.
The Chargers are far healthier than the Titans and… oh yeah, they have some guy named LDT. All due respect to Adrian Peterson (Vikings guy and Bears guy, if you’d like) as well as every other current NFL RB, LDT is *still* the best RB in the game.
The Chargers should win easily. But… I’m gonna pick the Titans to win this game. I’m not talking about simply covering the spread, I’m gonna pick them as my upset special: The Titans will win this game.
How will they do it? I have no idea. But I suspect that if they win, it’ll be because (a) the defense “contains” LDT (in my mind, “contains” is defined as less than 125 total yards from scrimmage and no more than 1 total TD), and (b) the defense *and* special teams gives the Titan offense consistently terrific field position, and (c) Young finds enough mojo to get enough first downs to give Bironas plenty of FG attempts… and if history is any guide, from anywhere inside 50 yards (and perhaps even from over 50 yards), Bironas will convert those attempts. A TD from the D/ST wouldn’t hurt the Titans cause either - and personally, I’ve been waiting all year for them to return one (or more)… just ask Danny.
Why will the Titans win the game? Two reasons: (1) Norv Turner is a horrible head coach, and he’s the Chargers head coach, and (2) ESPN’s “Hammerin’” Hank Greenberg has picked the Chargers to cover easily. Now that may just mean that the Titans (+10) will cover… but the confluence of these two events - Turner and Greenberg - leads me to go ahead an pick the Titans outright.
NY Giants at Tampa Bay - everyone’s talking about this being a referendum on Eli’s development as an NFL QB. Which Eli will show up - the highly Effective Eli of week 17 vs. New England, or the frustratingly Ineffective Eli of the previous month. Eli is an enigma, and clearly a storyline going into this game.
But for me, this game could serve as an interesting referendum on coaching approach’s to the end of the regular season once playoff berth/positions have been established. Gruden had his Buc starters effectively take the last two weeks off to (a) rest up and (b) try to prevent injury. But will they be rusty as a result? Coughlin played his starters to the end of week 17 to (a) try to beat the Patriots, (b) give Eli an opportunity to reverse his horrible play and gain confidence heading into the playoffs, and (c) try to keep his entire team sharp. But will the injuries and lack of rest which resulted negatively impact them as a result?
I heard a stat that after playing the Pats this season, only four teams went onto win the following week (and those four wins came against teams like the Jets and Niners i.e…. um, non-playoff teams) - call it the “Patriot Hangover” if you like… but the presumption is that the mental and emotional fatigue resulting from an effort to take out the mighty, undefeated Patriots has an adverse effect on a team in the short term. The Giants played a great game last week… will it be a springboard to victory this week, or a pitfall to defeat?
The biggest loss for the Giants has to be the center - especially given Eli’s past issues with fumbling the snap. I’ll be very interested to see how Ruegemmer and Manning do on the 30-50 snaps they have this afternoon… and I’ll be interested to see how the Giants O-Line does communicating and trying to hold back the ferocious Buc defense as they try to rattle Eli into mistakes that will make the difference in this game.
Interesting note: Jeff Garcia has faced the Giants in the playoffs twice before, and beaten them both times - once with the Niners (in that famous “bad snap” game), and last year with the Eagles. Will he make it three-for-three?
As noted previously, Eli is one of only three QBs (Brady and Peyton being the other two) to lead his team to the playoffs each of the past three years… but he’s gone out of the playoffs in the first round (unlike Brady and Peyton) each of the past two years.
If I were a Tampa Bay fan, I would be extremely worried about the “rust” effect - but I’m still picking Tampa Bay. I think their defense is better, I think their coach is better, and I think their QB will play better…
… but most of all, “Hammerin’” Hank Greenberg took the Giants (+3), so I’m confident that Tampa Bay will cover as a result.
I don’t really have anything against the Giants or the Chargers, and I guess I really wouldn’t be surprised if one or both of those teams won today… but I’m going with Tennessee and Tampa Bay.
Game on.
January 6th, 2008 at 3:06 pm
I am going with the Chargers. Not sure what argument outside of blind faith you just spouted. The beauty of Norv Turner is that he knows he F*ed up the the first 6 weeks of the season and then he changed his coaching style and gave LDT the ball. TEN can’t score when everyone is healthy. Why are they going to be able to score with a NFL Europe calibur offense.
BTW, I am also taking the Bucs (even though they are down 10 in the 3rd Q)… Manning is about to single handedly lose this game
January 6th, 2008 at 7:52 pm
Really wish I had read this post earlier.
How on earth do you pick the Titans. First of all, they’re horrible. Before all the injuries you mentioned. Second of all…they’re horrible.
The Chargers are terrible too. Philip Rivers is a joke. I can’t believe they are the three seed. What a gift for Indy.
January 6th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
I think what Cliffy meant to say is “As a Patriots Fan, I would rather the Jaguars play the Colts and the Patriots get to play a Titans team that will basically act as another bye” Now, the Colts get to play the Chargers and the Pats are stuck playing a very difficult game against a very physical Jacksonville team. Cliffy doesn’t need any basis for this type of pick…it is the epitome of a Homer pick
January 6th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
First, tell me how many Pounders you wanna give me for the Pats embarassing the Jaguars next week. I seem to recall a couple years ago when, similarly, the Jags were the sexy playoff pick… and they came into Foxboro… and were summarily beaten by 25 points. This was before the Pats had the best offense in the history of the NFL. I won’t be surprised if this year’s final outcome is actually more than that - but simply laying the Vegas points will suffice. The only question in my mind is whether or not Belicheck pulls Brady in the fourth quarter to give Cassell some playoff experience.
Second, I guess the basis for my Titans pick was (a) abject stupidity, combined with (b) a continuing and growing dislike for the Chargers. Norv Turner is an awful head coach, but that doesn’t make him a bad guy. Its not about him, its about the players. Phillip Rivers is a pouty moron, and their entire defense reminds me too much of former Patriot #1 draft choice, Chris Canty (I know Jakes will take that reference, not sure about everyone else). The primp and preen every time they make a damn tackle, and it’s really annoying. I guess I was hoping they’d be embarassed in the playoffs *again* - and I think we can all agree, if they somehow lost to this Titan team, at home, it would’ve been beyond embarassing. I’m sure they would’ve come up with excuses, they usually do - but no mind… the Colts will destroy them next week. And yes, I’ll pounder that with anyone as well.
In the regular season game between the Titans and Chargers, Merriman is blocked well on a play and automatically blames Coach Fischer of putting a hit out on him. Whatever. Merriman was still probably suffering the concusive effects of the devastating block that Jones-Drew put on him weeks earlier. Jones-Drew hit Merriman harder than Merriman has hit any RB this year, and somehow, Jones-Drew did not feel the need to launch into a Broadway number on the field after the play.
Merriman and his band of merry men will be rendered defenseless by Peyton and (depleted) crew this coming weekend, and I’m going to enjoy every freakin’ second of it.
All that said, my plan of picking against Hank Goldberg is not without merit - and my concern is that he’ll pick both the Pats and Colts to cover next week… meaning at *least* one of them won’t, thereby costing me Pounders. Oh well… if I’m lucky, and Hank stays true to putrid form, he’ll pick both dogs in the AFC games - and I’ll be virtually guaranteed victory.
One last thought: As often as I’m able next season, I’m going to post Hank’s picks on OGS… and then post my own on those same games. If I end the regular season with a worse record than that clown Goldberg, then I will do a penalty shot for each game that I’m worse than him at the ensuing Mecca. Not cuz I have to… just cuz I should - *if* I can’t do better than “The Hammer”.
Actually, one more last thought: For the NFC games next weekend, right now blind, I’ll Pounder against Goldberg’s picks in each game. No idea who he’ll pick - but I’ll take the opposite in each of the NFC games, and if someone wants my action, be heard.
January 7th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
Just to nitpick a bit - Hasselback (SEA) has also lead his team to playoffs last three years. And thinking about it some more, SD has been to playoffs last 3 years, yes?
January 8th, 2008 at 6:27 am
Re: Hasselbeck, you are correct, sir! I am the ignorant slut. For some reason, I though that *both* the Steelers and Seahawks missed the playoffs after both making the Super Bowl in 2005… but indeed Seattle did make it (going out in the first round) and only Pittsburgh missed. And Hasselbeck was a the helm all three seasons. Still… for Eli to be in company with Brady, Peyton and Hasselbeck in that regard ain’t too shabby, IMHO.
As for Chargers, nope. They missed in 2005. And even if they’d made it, Drew Brees was their starter that year. Rivers didn’t start until 2006 (after they let Brees go following the 2005 non-playoff season).
On Rivers, naturally he’ll be forever linked to Eli - given the trade. Interesting that Rivers and Eli both won their first playoff game in the same year. As noted, Eli’s made the playoffs the past three seasons - but Rivers only the past two. And the other #1 pick at QB in that draft, Big Ben, has also made the playoffs three times (recall in his rookie year, he took over for Tommy Maddox after three games and the Steelers went 15-1) although not the past three seasons - course, Big Ben already has a SB ring (as undeserved as it is in his particular case).