Winter Meetings - Milwaukee
It has been a while since I have posted, but since the Brewers turned into the New York Yankees at the Winter Meetings, I feel it appropriate to comment.
I like the Randy Wolf signing for several reasons. Let me start be saying that I have a soft spot for pitchers that I drafted as rookies in my Rotisserie League. That list includes: Brad Penny, Zack Greinke, Jeremy Affeldt, Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy, Kris Benson, Rick Ankiel, Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Danny Jackson, Scott Erickson, Pedro Martinez, Ramon Martinez, and of course Randy Wolf. So as you can imagine, I was quite excited about the potential free agent pitching market this year, knowing that the Brewers had an obvious need and cash to spend.
I have heard comparisons to the Jeff Suppan signing when referring to Wolf, and that was an initial thought of mine (soft-tosser, gives up HRs, “pitches to contact”, coming off career year.) Don’t forget, Jeff Suppan was going through his absolute peak performance of his career when the Brewers signed him:
http://www.oscargamblesociety.com/suppan-is-he-an-ace/
Wolf is 33, Suppan was 32 when they signed him. Although both are soft tossers, Wolf has the ability to strike out hitters. His 7K/9 IP is above the major league average, whereas Suppan never has had a ratio higher than 5.3/9 IP. Wolf is more of a fly ball pitcher, and Hart, Braun and Gomez are far superior defensively to anything the Dodgers or Astros had the last couple of years with Manny Ramirez and Carlos Lee in the outfield.
Did they overpay? Probably, but I think it is important to understand the overall allocation of resources and the opportunity costs associated with the signing. Melvin was quoted as saying he was looking for a veteran pitcher that had the ability to eat up innings, but unlike in the past he was more concerned with quality innings. Wolf has that ability, and while 9M is too much for a #2 starter, had the Brewers not signed Wolf, they would have directed those resources to a far inferior pitcher like Jared Washburn, Doug Davis or Vicente Padilla.
LaTroy Hawkins is another story. Didn’t Melvin make the same mistake 2 years ago with David Riske? Were the Brewers unlucky in the fact that Riske got hurt, or was the risk disproportionate with the expected return. Are David Riske or Latroy Hawkins worth $3 M more than whatever AAA pitcher they could have used in the same role? Hawkins is 38, and has been a very solid reliever for a long time, but is he better than Josh Butler? His declining strikeout rate is very concerning, and he BABIP is not sustainable. Is it appropriate to have $9 M tied up between Coffey, Riske and Hawkins? Why would you ever give a multiyear contract to a reliever that is not a top of the line closer.